“In a few years, we may regard the second half of the 20th century as the aberration in which the press used polls rather than markets to track political races,” Justin Wolfers, a business professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, wrote in an e-mail message. “And in the 21st century, we may return to the habits of the early 20th century, reporting on political races through the lens of prediction markets rather than polls.”
Previously: Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.
Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- “No offense, but I think Radley Balko is the most valuable blogger in America right now.”
- Are you a better predictor than John McCain?
- What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?
- Inkling Markets, one year later
- One trader’s view on BetFair’s new bet-matching logic