CEO Termination prediction markets, anyone??
Chris F. Masse December 14th, 2007
New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin:
Betting on the Next Wall Street C.E.O. Exit
[...] Paddy Power, the Irish gambling site, has decided to tap the wisdom of crowds and set odds on who the next C.E.O. casualty will be. [...]
Andrew Ross Sorkin does not know what he is talking about. PaddyPower is a bookmaker (which does not prove to us that it balances its book on those CEO Termination betting lines), and not a prediction exchange like InTrade (which, indeed, taps “the wisdom of crowds” and is wide open about it).
UPDATE: Niall O’Connor…
The over-round on Power’s market is 154.8. This means that they expect to pay out 100 for every 154.8 that they take in; yielding an expected profit of 54.8/154.8 = 35.4%. This is of course a disgrace. It reflects the fact that the market is nothing more than a gimmick - as soon as they catch sight of anybody looking to get a decent bet on, it is likely that they will simply close the book. A clear case of tapping into the wisdom of fools!
- Analysis (Market Proposals) , Betting
- Comments(1)
The over-round on Power’s market is 154.8. This means that they expect to pay out 100 for every 154.8 that they take in; yielding an expected profit of 54.8/154.8 = 35.4%. This is of course a disgrace. It reflects the fact that the market is nothing more than a gimmick - as soon as they catch sight of anybody looking to get a decent bet on, it is likely that they will simply close the book. A clear case of tapping into the wisdom of fools!