Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street:

I written about this topic before but one of the things I find fascinating about finance is how you can use markets for two items to create an “implied market” for a third. This idea is at the root of all the complex financial instruments that caused problems for so many hedge funds recently.

I’ll give you a good example. At InTrade.com, the site where you can trade futures on real world events, you can buy contracts on which candidate will win his or her party’s nomination [*] next year. There’s a separate contract for which candidate will win the presidency [**].

Let&#8217-s break out some math, shall we?

If you divide the latter [**] by the former [*], you get an “electability” contract.
For example, according to recent prices, Rudy Giuliani has a 41.5% chance (I&#8217-m using the last price) of getting the GOP nomination and an 18.4% of winning the presidency. Soooo&#8230- the market believes that if he gets the nomination, he has a 44.34% chance of winning (18.4% [**] divided by 41.5% [*]).

(The only minor flaw is that could include a candidate winning but not getting the nomination, however, I’m content with dismissing that possibility as beyond remote.)

What’s interesting is electability in the general election can have little impact on how well a candidate does in the primaries. Some people, myself included, think that Ronald Reagan would have had a better chance of beating Jimmy Carter in 1976 instead of Gerald Ford, even though Ford beat Reagan for the nomination.

I should add that I don’t place a great deal of faith in these real world futures markets. I simply see them as fun games to enjoy, but not to take too seriously.
Also, the markets aren’t very liquid. A minor change could have a big impact on the smaller-priced contracts.

Having said that, here’s a look at some candidates and the market’s take on their electability (sorry Paulites and Edwards fan, your candidates were too low to get a useful meaure).

Candidate………To Get Nomination….To Win&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-Electability
Hillary&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-..59.5&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-.39.0&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-65.55
Obama&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-33.0&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-.17.2&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-52.12
Giuliani&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-41.5&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-.18.4&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-44.34
Huckabee&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-..18.6&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-7.2&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-38.71
Romney&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-..18.8&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-5.9&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-31.38


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Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Comments are now completely open on Midas Oracle.
  • Albert Einstein, Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board
  • Erratic –but not Stochastic– Charts
  • Barack Obama is the 44th US president.
  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • DELEGATES AND SUPERDELEGATES ACCOUNTANCY
  • O’Reilly – Money-Tech Conference

2 thoughts on “Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

  1. Byrne Hobart said:

    (The only minor flaw is that could include a candidate winning but not getting the nomination, however, I’m content with dismissing that possibility as beyond remote.)

    PRESIDENT.FIELD2008 covers that.

    Also, see:

    http://www.portfolio.com/views…..of-al-gore

    It’s more interesting as an arbitrage than as a predictor, because primaries have gotten so Machiavellian. Nobody wants to nominate someone who runs as a party centrist, much less a party extremist: they want to nominate the most Democratic Republican or the most Republican Democrat. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelling’s_law in action!

  2. Chris. F. Masse said:

    Byrne, I sent your comment to Eddy, who thanked us.

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