Predicting the shift in odds caused by knockout competitions can be extremely profitable and lends itself excellently to tennis.
The odds on at least one competitor winning a tournament will always be 100%. However, as the tournament progresses and the number of competitors lesson then so do the odds of the remaining competitors and the 100% gets redistributed as each round is completed. For example should someone trading at 4.00 be knocked out of a competition then there is suddenly 25% of probability that needs to be redistributed.
This strategy lends itself very well to tennis as competitors are always being knocked out at differing timescales and also you are looking for one of the favorites to progress to the next round early whilst his close rivals are still to play (it also helps if the player concerned has a relatively easy next round). You then back this player. If any of his rivals should be knocked out of the competition then the price on the player you have backed will come in significantly. And even if all of his close rivals do progress the price will only drift ever so slightly. This is an excellent low risk strategy as the following example shows.
Nikolay Davydenko was priced at 10.5 (9.52% chance of winning) 3rd favourite for a very open tournament in
Paris. He had already qualified for the third round and all his close rivals were still to play so I backed him for ?25. Inevitably a couple of his rivals lost and his price went down to 8.00 (12.5% chance of winning). He was due to play the next round first and was a hot favourite priced around 1.2 I figured he would still progress further and his odds would shorten dramatically so to protect my poison I layed him for ?25 at 1.2 during this match. Which then meant if he went out I would lose nothing. He duly won and I lost ?5 however his price to win the tournament had now gone down to 5 (20% chance of winning tournament). Obviously I let this bet stand as once again all his rivals were yet to play and Yet again a close rival lost and his price again went down to 3.25 (30% chance of winning) It was then I greened up and made myself to ensure a ?55 profit whoever won. This ended up being a ?50 profit as I had lost ?5 during the earlier Lay.
As you can see providing you do your homework and keep an eye on the times the matches take place. (All this information is available on the atptennis.com ot the tournament website) this strategy can prove to be extremely profitable for very low risk. Obviously this strategy can work for any tournament in any sport for example should a team like Manchester United get through to the next round of the FA cup in a lunchtime kick off before everybody else is set to play it might be worth backing them in the hope that one or more of their rivals e.g. Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal lose that afternoon.
I will be using this principle and backing Maria Sharapova currently available at 5.9 on Betfair to win the womens US Open tennis which begins this week.
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