I propose the following test to check whether “-Harry Potter is alive at the end of the novel“-.
– Is J.K. Rowling able to write an 8th installment of the series (a sequel) without resurrecting Harry Potter?
1. If “-yes”-, that means that “-Harry Potter is alive at the end of the novel”-.
2. If “-no”-, that means that “-Harry Potter is not alive at the end of the novel”-.
NOTE: Prequels are of course allowed in both cases. (Thanks to Deep Throat for the tip)
1. If J.K. Rowling writes in an epilogue that Harry Potter will die after a life well lived (that is, from natural cause, after a long and happy life), then an 8th book is possible.
2. If J.K. Rowling writes that Harry Potter dies in the hands of his “-old nemesis”-, then an 8th book is not possible (unless J.K. Rowling resurrects her hero).
Note that, in the Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes case, we are in the configuration #2.
Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows. (15,813 contracts held.)
Previous: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.
NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
- THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
- Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
- Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
- Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
- If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
- 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).