Last month was the first month the simExchange (the free to play video game stock market game) has traded monthly hybrid futures contracts to predict NPD US video game sales data. In this trial run, trading on the simExchange appeared to be relatively more accurate than expert predictions. To quickly review, the following table depicts actual sales as reported by NPD Group, the prediction by trading on the simExchange, the error of the simExchange’-s forecast, the prediction by leading Wall Street firm Wedbush Morgan, and the error of Wedbush Morgan’-s forecast:
US Hardware March 2007
| Console | Actual Sales* | The simExchange** | Error | Wedbush Morgan*** | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nintendo DS | 508k | 492.8K | -2.99% | 250K | -50.79% |
| Nintendo Wii | 259k | 385.0K | +48.65% | 400K | +54.44% |
| Microsoft Xbox 360 | 199k | 231.0K | +16.08% | 250K | +25.63% |
| Sony PlayStation Portable | 180K | 180.5K | +0.28% | 210K | +16.67% |
| Sony PlayStation 3 | 130k | 144.0K | +10.77% | 165k | +26.92% |
NPD has released its findings for US April 2007 video game sales. The following charts compare actual sales numbers determined by the NPD Group with forecasts from market trading on the simExchange and predictions by leading Wall Street analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan.
US Hardware April 2007
| Rank | Console | Actual Sales* | The simExchange** | Error | Wedbush Morgan**** | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Nintendo DS | 471k | 548.9K | +16.54% | 450K | -4.46% |
| 2. | Nintendo Wii | 360k | 319.5K | -11.25% | 300K | -16.67% |
| 3. | Sony PlayStation 2 | 194k | Not listed | N/A | 250K | +29.87% |
| 4. | Sony PlayStation Portable | 183K | 190.4K | +4.04% | 200K | +9.29% |
| 5. | Microsoft Xbox 360 | 174k | 194.8K | +11.95% | 175K | +0.57% |
| 6. | Nintendo GameBoy Advance | 84k | Not listed | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7. | Sony PlayStation 3 | 82k | 107.3K | +30.85% | 100k | +21.95% |
| 8. | Nintendo GameCube | 13k | Not listed | N/A | N/A | N/A |
The simExchange did not trade monthly hybrid futures for game software this month. However, NPD’-s Top 10 is still relevant for comparing how trading on the simExchange is forecasting lifetime, global sales of the games.
| Rank | Title | Publisher | April Sales* | Lifetime Forecast** |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Pokemon Diamond (DS) | Nintendo | 1.045M | 18.21M |
| 2. | Pokemon Pearl (DS) | Nintendo | 712K | 18.21M |
| 3. | Super Paper Mario (Wii) | Nintendo | 352K | 1.83M |
| 4. | Wii Play w/remote (Wii) | Nintendo | 249K | 4.90M |
| 5. | Guitar Hero 2 w/ guitar (Xbox 360) | Activision | 197K | 1.30M |
| 6. | Guitar Hero 2 w/ guitar (PS2) | Activision | 142K | Not listed |
| 7. | Spider-Man 3 (Xbox 360) | Activision | 117K | 1.07M |
| 8. | Spider-Man 3 (PS2) | Activision | 105K | 1.62M |
| 9. | God of War II (PS2) | Sony | 101K | 1.92M |
| 10. | MLB ‘-07: The Show (PS2) | Sony | 79K | Not listed |
Although data is still limited, initial predictions on the simExchange video game prediction market appear to be relatively accurate (compared with traditional predictors), and in some cases, absolutely accurate (compared with the actual result). The prediction market out performed the analyst on every prediction in March and was split in April.
Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).
Joining and playing the simExchange is completely free and does not involve any real money. To play, sign up here.
* NPD Group sales data
** The simExchange trading data
*** GameDaily Biz, April 13, 2007
**** GameDaily Biz, May 14, 2007
Cross posted from NPD releases April sales data, prediction market and analyst compared on the simExchange Official Blog.
Previously: Accounting sales of digitally downloaded games, Next lesson: so the “futures” aren’t really future, So what exactly are these “futures?”, The structure of the simExchange stocks and An invitation to join the simExchange beta.