Saudi Arabia prediction markets, anyone??

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King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has said he does not want to go down in history as Mr. Bush’s Arab Tony Blair.

New York Times

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh in March

Awad Awad/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh in March, during a meeting of Arab heads of state in which he called the United States presence in Iraq “an illegal foreign occupation,” infuriating the White House.

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Saudi Arabia prediction markets, anyone??

Thanks, but No Thanks. Difficult to get info. Saudi Arabia is like a giant cult, with a two-tier population —-the people, and the rulers (the multi-married “-princes”-, who proliferate like rabbits).

That’-s why I think Robin Hanson made an error when he picked up the Middle East as the geopolitical target of his DARPA’-s Policy Analysis Market. Mid-East politics is too arcane for us, Westerners. And the whole Iraq war mess shows you that the Americans, in particular, don’-t get the Arabo-Muslim world.

Would Mid-East prediction markets with strong incentives and high participation improve our intelligence??? Yes, in theory. But, as we have seen on Midas Oracle in the past weeks, the scholars have great ideas for brand-new event derivatives, but…- as I’-m used to ask…- how many divisions??? They have no traction.

The field of prediction markets is where great ideas meet their coffin. The emphasis is put on a bunch of aloof scholars just because they can use a scientific calculator. We need thinkers/managers who both can make us dream with socially relevant event derivatives and understand the practicalities of the prediction markets.

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