FT Predict – (ftpredict.com)
About FT Predict ™:
FT Predict™ is more than just a game. Predictive [*] markets collect the wisdom of the crowd* in a single dynamic price unit that can be far more sensitive to changes in the market than standard survey-based research. And a growing number of today’-s leading companies embrace predictive market models in order to harness the wisdom of their own crowds to improve decision-making. Still, the fun part is playing the game and keeping up on what’-s important to you at the same time. And if you like to play, we’-ll keep playing.
We hope FT Predict interests you. Tell us what you think!
Looking for more information on Predictive Markets? Wikipedia’-s entry is a good place to start.
* James Surroweicki’-s book, The Wisdom of Crowds, offers insights into the dynamics behind predictive markets and why they work…-and why sometimes they don’-t.
[*] not “-predictive markets”-: prediction markets, please. (ALL markets are predictive.)
#1. Why not the full range of play-money contracts organized by TradeSports-InTrade (including the sports)?
#2. InTrade should unveil the purpose of its automated market maker. Here’-s why. If there’-s a linkage between the real-money contract prices and the play-money contract “-prices”-, then it might not be fun to trade on FT Predict with the hope of using the real-money InTrade prediction markets as advanced indicators. If the machine gives the right prices right away, then what would be the motivation to correct the prices?
Any comment, folks?
Addendum: What about the deal between Reuters and InTrade, as alleged by Deep Throat? Is that still on the front burner?
Addendum #2: I got Will Speck (FT’-s R&-D director for the Americas) on the phone real quick…-
a) FT Predict is a play-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) that will reward its best traders. Time period of the contest: April to June 2007. Current top prize is a cruise trip for two persons.
b) The aim of The Financial Times is really to go global with this play-money prediction exchange (betting exchange). Currently, FT Predict is only for US residents, over 21, and physically present in the U.S. They will propose the game to other countries later on.
c) There’-s indeed a link between FT Predict and the real-money Intrade prices, in the form of an automated market maker. Its purpose is only to start off the exchange- the aim is to have 100% organic volume as soon as possible.
Addendum #3: Other info I found on the Official Rules page…-
[…] You will receive an account with a starting balance of 10,000 FT$ to use to make trades. […] You may choose as many or as few of the approximately 250 contracts to trade each week using the available FT$ in your account. To simulate actual futures trading, a transaction fee of 0.05 FT$ per share will be charged for each trade you make. […]
To “-simulate”-??? To get play-money traders accustomed to the configurations of a real-money prediction exchange, rather. The idea here, maybe, is to offer a free version of a betting exchange in the hope of converting prospects into real-money traders, later on.
Addendum #4: One last thought. FT Predict gives weight to CDA in its battle against MSR.