Simulating joint dynamics of InTrades electoral prediction markets

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from: Cody Stumpo
subject: Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade&#8217-s electoral prediction markets

Hi there,

I am writing you as experts on prediction markets to ask what you think of some work I have done. At InTrade, you can bet on the 51 electoral markets individually. So using these 51 time series, I generated a daily return covariance matrix to simulate the joint dynamics of how they might move forward in the days until the election. Assuming a normal copula of daily returns and simulating the 48 (IIRC) days until the election 5000 times, I get a distribution of outcomes. The histogram of Obama electoral votes (which interestingly is bimodal) is the main output. The mean is 259 – and the chance he will win the election (as of yesterday&#8217-s close) was 44.4%. This agreed almost exactly with which is the best polls-based approach I know of.

Some more details are on my blog, . You are free to use/extend the idea, with credit.


Cody Stumpo

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