Are prediction markets all hat and no cattle?

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Asks Lucy Vega.

How are you going to get figures, Lucy?

Nigel, what the hell were you doing in Texas??

6 thoughts on “Are prediction markets all hat and no cattle?

  1. Nigel Eccles said:

    I tell you what, I’ll share my revenue figures if everyone else shares theirs :-)

  2. Lucy Vega said:

    Chris asked, “How are you going to get figures, Lucy?”

    I doubt most of the firms will release their revenues publicly, but they might be willing to share internally with a PMIA representative (or with Forrester) to create an aggregate figure.

    Or maybe it’ll be up to Chris to make a credible estimate… so Chris, what’s your Hubdub bet on this?

  3. Chris F. Masse said:

    @Lucy Vega: Lucy Vega, I think that InTrade are pretty open when it comes to disclosing the amount of bets matched on their exchange. From there, I suppose that an analyst would deduct their revenues. As for the other prediction market firms based in the US, they are pretty secretive.

  4. Nigel Eccles said:

    I tell you what, I’ll share my revenue figures if everyone else shares theirs :-)

  5. Lucy Vega said:

    Chris asked, “How are you going to get figures, Lucy?”

    I doubt most of the firms will release their revenues publicly, but they might be willing to share internally with a PMIA representative (or with Forrester) to create an aggregate figure.

    Or maybe it’ll be up to Chris to make a credible estimate… so Chris, what’s your Hubdub bet on this?

  6. Chris F. Masse said:

    @Lucy Vega: Lucy Vega, I think that InTrade are pretty open when it comes to disclosing the amount of bets matched on their exchange. From there, I suppose that an analyst would deduct their revenues. As for the other prediction market firms based in the US, they are pretty secretive.

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