Predictions

Chris F. Masse

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Contents

  • Explainer On Prediction Markets
  • Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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#2. Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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Technical Note: Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange (InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair, Iowa Electronic Markets, or NewsFutures-Bet2Give).

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner - Individual

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner - Political Party

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party) at intrade.com

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2008 Democratic Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

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2008 Republican Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

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2008 US Senate Control

Price for 2008 US Senate Control at intrade.com

Price for 2008 US Senate Control at intrade.com

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

Price for 2008 US House of Representatives Control at intrade.com

Price for 2008 US House of Representatives Control at intrade.com

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BetFair

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Next US President

Next US President

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Winning Party

Winning Party

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Female President?

Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Iowa Electronic Markets

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Presidential Prediction Markets

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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2008 Democratic Convention Market

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2008 Republican Convention Market

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- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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NewsFutures

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Presidential Prediction Markets

Source: NewsFutures widget

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.


© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.


© NewsFutures

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Democratic Nominee

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Barack Obama


© NewsFutures

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Hillary Clinton


© NewsFutures

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John Edwards


© NewsFutures

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Republican Nominee

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John McCain


© NewsFutures

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Mitt Romney


© NewsFutures

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Rudy Giuliani


© NewsFutures

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Mike Huckabee


© NewsFutures

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Bet2Give

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Presidential Prediction Markets


Source: Bet2Give widget

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Sources: InTrade & BetFair & NewsFutures & Bet2Give

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- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

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- CNN US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard

- Political Base - Polls

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Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

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Midas Oracle Contents

- Midas Oracle Site Search

- Midas Oracle Site Map

- Midas Oracle Pages

- Midas Oracle Archives

- Best External Web Links + Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Explainer + Probabilistic Predictions

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About Midas Oracle

- About Midas Oracle .ORG

- Mission, Boards And Projects

- The Blog Authors

- Terms Of Use

- Contact

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