Best

The Best Resources On Prediction Markets

-

The Last 200 Best Midas Oracle Posts On Prediction Markets

-

Technical Tip: To search this archive page within your browser, go to “Edit” and “Find”, and type your query.

-

  • David Pennock wants you to believe that InTrade needs Robin Hanson’s automated market maker. by Chris F. Masse
  • The Interdependence of Prices and Gold by Jason Ruspini
  • CFTC Takes Jurisdiction Over “Prediction Markets”. by Jason Ruspini
  • Book Review: The Limits of Transparency by Jason Ruspini
  • CrowdCast @ Under the Radar 2010 by Chris F. Masse
  • InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read. by Chris F. Masse
  • Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade? by Chris F. Masse
  • Truth in Advertising – Meet Prediction Markets by Paul Hewitt
  • SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO] by Chris F. Masse
  • Nate Silver explains how he builds his forecasting models. – [VIDEO] by Chris F. Masse
  • Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable by Chris F. Masse
  • Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO] by Chris F. Masse
  • What Does Gold Hedge Against? by Jason Ruspini
  • The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL. by Chris F. Masse
  • Vernon Smith is bullish on event derivative markets (a.k.a. prediction markets). by Chris F. Masse
  • Critics of the efficient market hypothesis are all hat and no cattle. by Chris F. Masse
  • How the prediction market industry lied to the media (and the public, *YOU*) about Hewlett-Packard’s pilot tests regarding enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Jim Rogers: How to make millions on the financial markets without using Robin Hanson’s collective forecasting or James Surowiecki’s wisdom of crowds by Chris F. Masse
  • Andrew McAfee’s anecdote on enterprise prediction markets is a load of bullsh*t. by Chris F. Masse
  • The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!… by Guest Author
  • Robin, just because we don’t have another method of accurately predicting an outcome doesn’t mean we have to be so appreciative when a prediction market comes up with a forecast just before the outcome is revealed. by Chris F. Masse
  • Long-term prediction markets are usually very inaccurate for most of their durations. by Chris F. Masse
  • Robin Hanson’s long-term prediction markets are not very useful for proper decision-making. by Chris F. Masse
  • Yes, prediction markets “incentivize accuracy”, but there is no guarantee of success. by Chris F. Masse
  • Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL. by Chris F. Masse
  • Peter Schiff was right on the US recession coming (back in 2006 and 2007). by Chris F. Masse
  • Networks, Crowds, and Markets – Reasoning About A Highly Connected World – by David Easley and Jon Kleinberg by Chris F. Masse
  • Modeling Planet Earth is difficult. by Chris F. Masse
  • Ladbrokes’ shareholders must call for Bell’s head. by Niall O’Connor
  • Predicting the decision of a private committee is inherently a task ill-suited for prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • Financial Fiasco: How America’s Infatuation with Homeownership and Easy Money Created the Economic Crisis by Chris F. Masse
  • If Michael Giberson is wrong, then that means that Chris Masse is right. by Chris F. Masse
  • Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics? by Chris F. Masse
  • Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market by Chris F. Masse
  • Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016. by Chris F. Masse
  • Assessing the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Why BetFair does *not* want to share its profits with sports rights holders by Chris F. Masse
  • The truth about CrowdClarity’s extraordinary predictive power (which impresses Jed Christiansen so much) by Chris F. Masse
  • Finally, a positive corporate prediction market case study… —well, according to Jed Christiansen by Chris F. Masse
  • Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees? by Michael Giberson
  • Have the public prediction markets ever been taken seriously by the media and the decision makers during the 1988–2009 period? by Chris F. Masse
  • Tap The Collective – The Videos by Chris F. Masse
  • Bob Woodward on Investigative Journalism by Chris F. Masse
  • Do businesses need enterprise prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
  • “Tap The Collective” failed to convince me about the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction markets VERSUS Prediction markets on prediction markets VERSUS Conditional prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Professor Christopher Wlezien on his research on how election prediction markets compare to polls. by Chris F. Masse
  • When we score the accuracy of thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts across dozens of countries over twenty years, we find the best forecasters tend to be modest about their forecasting skills, eclectic in their ideological and theoretical tastes, and self-critical in their analytical styles. by Chris F. Masse
  • How BetFair Works = How BetFair lies about the history of the betting exchange industry by Chris F. Masse
  • Betfair slammed for misleading ad by Niall O’Connor
  • Felix Salmon Forgot About Prediction Markets? by Jason Ruspini
  • Prediction markets: Sticking to the letter of the contract VERSUS Interpreting intent by Chris F. Masse
  • CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with a market maker by Chris F. Masse
  • Don’t shoot the speculators. They predict prices, not set them. by Chris F. Masse
  • In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone. by Chris F. Masse
  • Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts? by Michael Giberson
  • The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist? by Chris F. Masse
  • Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach by Chris F. Masse
  • Even when well calibrated, prediction markets can be useless, nevertheless. by Chris F. Masse
  • What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting by Chris F. Masse
  • Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts by Chris F. Masse
  • Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
  • Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization? by Chris F. Masse
  • Business Models by Chris F. Masse
  • “If prediction markets are not consistently more accurate than other means of forecasting, they will never have a chance in the business world.” by Chris F. Masse
  • Enterprise prediction markets have *no* benefits for businesses. by Chris F. Masse
  • Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software by Chris F. Masse
  • Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated. by Chris F. Masse
  • Why EPM consulting is still a pretty evangelical business. by Chris F. Masse
  • Blogging Against The Hype by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets: Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom by Chris F. Masse
  • Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
  • Gartner: Enterprise prediction markets are between 5 and 10 years away from mainstream adoption —if ever they take off one day (taking into account that their benefit is “moderate” and that early users are “disillusioned”). by Chris F. Masse
  • Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.” by Chris F. Masse
  • The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • If prediction market advocates are so confident, why aren’t their claims more specific? by Chris F. Masse
  • The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy by Chris F. Masse
  • If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why aren’t they being used much more widely? by Chris F. Masse
  • Kay-Yut Chen of HP Labs + Mat Fogarty of CrowdCast by Chris F. Masse
  • Combinatorial Prediction Markets — David Pennock Edition by Chris F. Masse
  • “The fact that Inkling needs five bullet points and a graph to explain short selling is a good indication it’s too complicated.” by Chris F. Masse
  • Will prediction markets ever really take off? by Chris F. Masse
  • Some enterprise prediction markets work very well… —some others are just a waste of time. by Chris F. Masse
  • THE MOST OVERLOOKED DOCUMENT OF 2008 by Chris F. Masse
  • Assessing Prediction Markets 101 by Chris F. Masse
  • Enterprise prediction markets are not a disruptive technology; but merely another means of forecasting. by Chris F. Masse
  • Damped polls are superior to prediction markets as election predictors. by Chris F. Masse
  • Damped polls outperform prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • Awesome interview of the new BetFair CTO by Chris F. Masse
  • Mechanical Turk grades The Economist’s news article on enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing —not. by Chris F. Masse
  • What’s the big deal about the fluff on prediction markets in The Economist? by Michael Giberson
  • Opacity versus Openness by Chris F. Masse
  • Conditional Likelihood Loss — Redux by Chris F. Masse
  • Enterprise prediction markets: Usability innovation is the answer. by Mat Fogarty
  • Inkling Markets CEO Adam Siegel speaks out on the current state of enterprise prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • How vendors are scuttling the field of enterprise prediction markets —and the prediction market industry, as a whole by Chris F. Masse
  • The Economist: The enterprise prediction markets are flopping, big time. by Chris F. Masse
  • “It is their velocity that we should put to work.” by Chris F. Masse
  • “Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.” by Chris F. Masse
  • Accuracy and Efficiency of Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Velocity + Inaccuracy by Chris F. Masse
  • JFK + The passing of time + The prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit. by Chris F. Masse
  • The HHS–Sebelius prediction market might be (yet) another case-in-point for documenting velocity. by Chris F. Masse
  • Velocity is such a potent argument. Why don’t we use it more, for Christ’s sake? by Chris F. Masse
  • Whatever the expectations (whether they will end up being wrong or right), in complicated situations, the prediction markets aggregate them faster than the mass media do. by Chris F. Masse
  • The truth about prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • How Best Buy gather the collected wisdom of customers and employees to better predict future events by Chris F. Masse
  • Dealing with public perception and general anti-market sentiment by Jason Ruspini
  • Robin Hanson on combinatorial prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Obstacles to Prediction Market Adoption by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do. by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise. by Chris F. Masse
  • A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price by Chris F. Masse
  • Was the wreck of the USS Scorpion discovered thanks to collective intelligence? by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction markets react to polls. by Chris F. Masse
  • Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures by Chris F. Masse
  • Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends. by Chris F. Masse
  • Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures by Chris F. Masse
  • CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction markets about movie box office — Cantor Exchange by Chris F. Masse
  • A Canadian event derivative trader reflects on the future of InTrade and Tradesports. by Chris F. Masse
  • Are prediction markets useful to you? by Chris F. Masse
  • Are collective intelligence solutions being oversold? by Chris F. Masse
  • Are prediction markets useful? by Chris F. Masse
  • Don’t pump up the features of the prediction markets —instead, put the emphasis on their benefits. by Chris F. Masse
  • John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • “The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.” by Chris F. Masse
  • The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade. by Chris F. Masse
  • After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade. by Chris F. Masse
  • TradeSports ceases its operations. by Chris F. Masse
  • The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run. by Chris F. Masse
  • It’s Only A Game. by Chris F. Masse
  • Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges by Chris F. Masse
  • Does it matter that the prediction markets got the total number of electoral votes for Barack Obama (almost) spot on? by Chris F. Masse
  • The SEC and the CFTC will soon disappear into their own ***. Here’s what could be next. by Chris F. Masse
  • Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts by Mike Linksvayer
  • My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney by Chris F. Masse
  • What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common? by Chris F. Masse
  • The 2008 US presidential election was “pretty close”, and Nate Silver’s state poll aggregation “pretty much nailed” it. by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets — The Day After by Chris F. Masse
  • How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power by Chris F. Masse
  • Enterprise prediction markets help organizations mitigate risks. by Chris F. Masse
  • Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast. by Chris F. Masse
  • Zubin Jelveh explains how the market arbitrage opportunities between InTrade and BetFair evaporated just after Nate Silver’s post. by Chris F. Masse
  • The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count by Emile Servan-Schreiber
  • Futarchy Lite 2008 by Mike Linksvayer
  • Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather? by Chris F. Masse
  • Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise. by Chris F. Masse
  • What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
  • Are the polls accurate? — Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election by Chris F. Masse
  • Can InTrade’s prediction markets really “contribute to solutions in avoiding future [financial] crises”? by Chris F. Masse
  • The best research paper of the year 2008 by Chris F. Masse
  • Polls vs. Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Political prediction markets should “move beyond mere horse-race forecasts to demonstrate larger social value”. by Chris F. Masse
  • InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading. by Jason Ruspini
  • The gamble of downplaying manipulation by Jason Ruspini
  • Towards prediction market webpages (a la HubDub) that Google can index, that web visitors can land on directly (even after the event derivative contract expiry), that traders can comment on, and that bloggers can directly link to by Chris F. Masse
  • There is no manipulation going on in the InTrade political prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney states that prediction markets can prevent the next financial cataclysms. Surely. Prediction markets can also restore women’s virginity, and treat men’s baldness. by Chris F. Masse
  • Positives for prediction markets by Jason Ruspini
  • OneSeason.com by Chris F. Masse
  • Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX by Chris F. Masse
  • Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Long-Term Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Historical Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president? by Chris F. Masse
  • Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade’s electoral prediction markets by Guest Author
  • Nobel laureate Gary Becker and judge Richard Posner both wish that, one day, real-money prediction markets will be legal, without restrictions, in the United States of America. by Chris F. Masse
  • Do the top brass really tell everything to the trading employees? Do the EPM traders have access to all the primary indicators? by Chris F. Masse
  • Nigel Eccles (the CEO of HubDub) and Robin Hanson (the inventor of MSR) have some explaining to make about the extreme zigzagging of the Barack Obama event derivative (in blue on this static compound chart). Look at the right end of the chart. by Chris F. Masse
  • Is Intrade out on a limb? by Emile Servan-Schreiber
  • WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE. by Chris F. Masse
  • 2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain by Chris F. Masse
  • State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College = US Electoral Map by Chris F. Masse
  • InTrade-TradeSports has a web server misconfiguration problem, and CEO John Delaney has a character problem. by Chris F. Masse
  • Zocalo in use at MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence by Chris Hibbert
  • The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism. by Chris F. Masse
  • How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate? by Chris F. Masse
  • Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ? by Chris F. Masse
  • The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight. by Chris F. Masse
  • Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there). by Chris F. Masse
  • While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS. by Chris F. Masse
  • ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks. by Chris F. Masse
  • WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker. by Chris F. Masse
  • Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market by Koleman Strumpf
  • FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated. by Chris F. Masse
  • Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete by Chris F. Masse
  • Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard. by Jason Ruspini
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading? by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff. by Chris F. Masse
  • -

    -

    - The Full List Of The Best Midas Oracle Posts

    - All Best Posts Ever

    -

    -

    Midas Oracle Contents

    - Pages

    - Posts

    - Best Posts

    - Probabilistic Predictions

    -

    About Midas Oracle

    - About Midas Oracle .ORG

    - Blog Authors

    - Contact

    - Terms Of Use

    -

    -

    Leave a Reply