Best

The Best Resources On Prediction Markets

• The Best External Resources On Prediction Markets — (open that link in another browser tab, and scroll down)
• The Best Midas Oracle Posts On Prediction Markets — (this present webpage)

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The Last 200 Best Midas Oracle Posts On Prediction Markets

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Betdaq’s financials by Guest Author

In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone. by Chris F. Masse

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts? by Michael Giberson

The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist? by Chris F. Masse

Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach by Chris F. Masse

Even when well calibrated, prediction markets can be useless, nevertheless. by Chris F. Masse

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting by Chris F. Masse

Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts by Chris F. Masse

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse

Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization? by Chris F. Masse

Business Models by Chris F. Masse

“If prediction markets are not consistently more accurate than other means of forecasting, they will never have a chance in the business world.” by Chris F. Masse

Enterprise prediction markets have *no* benefits for businesses. by Chris F. Masse

Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software by Chris F. Masse

Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated. by Chris F. Masse

Why EPM consulting is still a pretty evangelical business. by Chris F. Masse

Blogging Against The Hype by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets: Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Gartner: Enterprise prediction markets are between 5 and 10 years away from mainstream adoption —if ever they take off one day (taking into account that their benefit is “moderate” and that early users are “disillusioned”). by Chris F. Masse

Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.” by Chris F. Masse

The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

If prediction market advocates are so confident, why aren’t their claims more specific? by Chris F. Masse

The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy by Chris F. Masse

If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why aren’t they being used much more widely? by Chris F. Masse

Kay-Yut Chen of HP Labs + Mat Fogarty of CrowdCast by Chris F. Masse

Combinatorial Prediction Markets — David Pennock Edition by Chris F. Masse

“The fact that Inkling needs five bullet points and a graph to explain short selling is a good indication it’s too complicated.” by Chris F. Masse

Will prediction markets ever really take off? by Chris F. Masse

Some enterprise prediction markets work very well… —some others are just a waste of time. by Chris F. Masse

THE MOST OVERLOOKED DOCUMENT OF 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Assessing Prediction Markets 101 by Chris F. Masse

Enterprise prediction markets are not a disruptive technology; but merely another means of forecasting. by Chris F. Masse

Damped polls are superior to prediction markets as election predictors. by Chris F. Masse

Damped polls outperform prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse

Awesome interview of the new BetFair CTO by Chris F. Masse

Mechanical Turk grades The Economist’s news article on enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing —not. by Chris F. Masse

What’s the big deal about the fluff on prediction markets in The Economist? by Michael Giberson

Opacity versus Openness by Chris F. Masse

Conditional Likelihood Loss — Redux by Chris F. Masse

Enterprise prediction markets: Usability innovation is the answer. by Mat Fogarty

Inkling Markets CEO Adam Siegel speaks out on the current state of enterprise prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse

How vendors are scuttling the field of enterprise prediction markets —and the prediction market industry, as a whole by Chris F. Masse

The Economist: The enterprise prediction markets are flopping, big time. by Chris F. Masse

“It is their velocity that we should put to work.” by Chris F. Masse

“Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.” by Chris F. Masse

Accuracy and Efficiency of Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Velocity + Inaccuracy by Chris F. Masse

JFK + The passing of time + The prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit. by Chris F. Masse

The HHS–Sebelius prediction market might be (yet) another case-in-point for documenting velocity. by Chris F. Masse

Velocity is such a potent argument. Why don’t we use it more, for Christ’s sake? by Chris F. Masse

Whatever the expectations (whether they will end up being wrong or right), in complicated situations, the prediction markets aggregate them faster than the mass media do. by Chris F. Masse

The truth about prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

How Best Buy gather the collected wisdom of customers and employees to better predict future events by Chris F. Masse

Dealing with public perception and general anti-market sentiment by Jason Ruspini

Robin Hanson on combinatorial prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Obstacles to Prediction Market Adoption by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do. by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise. by Chris F. Masse

A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price by Chris F. Masse

Was the wreck of the USS Scorpion discovered thanks to collective intelligence? by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets react to polls. by Chris F. Masse

Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures by Chris F. Masse

Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends. by Chris F. Masse

Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures by Chris F. Masse

CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction markets about movie box office — Cantor Exchange by Chris F. Masse

A Canadian event derivative trader reflects on the future of InTrade and Tradesports. by Chris F. Masse

Are prediction markets useful to you? by Chris F. Masse

Are collective intelligence solutions being oversold? by Chris F. Masse

Are prediction markets useful? by Chris F. Masse

Don’t pump up the features of the prediction markets —instead, put the emphasis on their benefits. by Chris F. Masse

John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse

“The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.” by Chris F. Masse

The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade. by Chris F. Masse

After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade. by Chris F. Masse

TradeSports ceases its operations. by Chris F. Masse

The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run. by Chris F. Masse

It’s Only A Game. by Chris F. Masse

Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges by Chris F. Masse

Does it matter that the prediction markets got the total number of electoral votes for Barack Obama (almost) spot on? by Chris F. Masse

The SEC and the CFTC will soon disappear into their own ***. Here’s what could be next. by Chris F. Masse

Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts by Mike Linksvayer

My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney by Chris F. Masse

What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common? by Chris F. Masse

The 2008 US presidential election was “pretty close”, and Nate Silver’s state poll aggregation “pretty much nailed” it. by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets — The Day After by Chris F. Masse

How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power by Chris F. Masse

Enterprise prediction markets help organizations mitigate risks. by Chris F. Masse

Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast. by Chris F. Masse

Zubin Jelveh explains how the market arbitrage opportunities between InTrade and BetFair evaporated just after Nate Silver’s post. by Chris F. Masse

The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Futarchy Lite 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather? by Chris F. Masse

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise. by Chris F. Masse

What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse

Are the polls accurate? — Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election by Chris F. Masse

Can InTrade’s prediction markets really “contribute to solutions in avoiding future [financial] crises”? by Chris F. Masse

The best research paper of the year 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Polls vs. Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Political prediction markets should “move beyond mere horse-race forecasts to demonstrate larger social value”. by Chris F. Masse

InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading. by Jason Ruspini

The gamble of downplaying manipulation by Jason Ruspini

Towards prediction market webpages (a la HubDub) that Google can index, that web visitors can land on directly (even after the event derivative contract expiry), that traders can comment on, and that bloggers can directly link to by Chris F. Masse

There is no manipulation going on in the InTrade political prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse

InTrade CEO John Delaney states that prediction markets can prevent the next financial cataclysms. Surely. Prediction markets can also restore women’s virginity, and treat men’s baldness. by Chris F. Masse

Positives for prediction markets by Jason Ruspini

OneSeason.com by Chris F. Masse

Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX by Chris F. Masse

Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Long-Term Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Historical Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president? by Chris F. Masse

Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade’s electoral prediction markets by Guest Author

Nobel laureate Gary Becker and judge Richard Posner both wish that, one day, real-money prediction markets will be legal, without restrictions, in the United States of America. by Chris F. Masse

Do the top brass really tell everything to the trading employees? Do the EPM traders have access to all the primary indicators? by Chris F. Masse

Nigel Eccles (the CEO of HubDub) and Robin Hanson (the inventor of MSR) have some explaining to make about the extreme zigzagging of the Barack Obama event derivative (in blue on this static compound chart). Look at the right end of the chart. by Chris F. Masse

Is Intrade out on a limb? by Emile Servan-Schreiber

WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE. by Chris F. Masse

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain by Chris F. Masse

State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College = US Electoral Map by Chris F. Masse

InTrade-TradeSports has a web server misconfiguration problem, and CEO John Delaney has a character problem. by Chris F. Masse

Zocalo in use at MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence by Chris Hibbert

The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism. by Chris F. Masse

How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate? by Chris F. Masse

Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ? by Chris F. Masse

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight. by Chris F. Masse

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there). by Chris F. Masse

While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS. by Chris F. Masse

ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks. by Chris F. Masse

WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker. by Chris F. Masse

Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market by Koleman Strumpf

FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated. by Chris F. Masse

Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete by Chris F. Masse

Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard. by Jason Ruspini

Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

How does InTrade deal with insider trading? by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff. by Chris F. Masse

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) by Chris F. Masse

Forrester recommend to add enterprise prediction markets in the company toolbox. by Chris F. Masse

“InTrade’s market data shows that the sliding Dow Jones Industrial Average has an exceptionally strong negative correlation (approx. -0.91 over the last 10 weeks) with the rise in the InTrade Market for Barack Obama to be the next US President.” by Chris F. Masse

In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS. by Chris F. Masse

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College by Chris F. Masse

Chris Masse’s second comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets) by Chris F. Masse

Chris Masse’s first comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets) by Chris F. Masse

What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) by Chris F. Masse

Are US-based real-money prediction exchanges to become federally regulated (as DCMs)? Or semi-regulated (as ECMs, or as exchanges covered by “no-action” letters)? by Chris F. Masse

What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded” by Chris F. Masse

My response to the CFTC on event contracts by Jason Ruspini

Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the non-regulating regulator by Caruso

Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war). by Chris F. Masse

Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go. by Tom W. Bell

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets by Jay Graziani

VP conditional probabilities by Eric Zitzewitz

2 MILLION TRADES LATER: Inkling’s play-money prediction markets are accurate —too. by Chris F. Masse

COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini by Chris F. Masse

PREDICTION MARKETS: Robin Hanson & Justin Wolfers by Chris F. Masse

Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism. by Tom W. Bell

WEB EXCLUSIVE: How the US prediction market scene will look like after the CFTC ruling on “event markets” by Chris F. Masse

How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets” by Chris F. Masse

How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts by Chris F. Masse

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America by Chris F. Masse

Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) by Guest Author

The best research papers on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

What public interests are served by event contracts? by Michael Giberson

Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition by Chris F. Masse

How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally by Chris F. Masse

The best presentations from the world’s best conference on enterprise prediction markets —ever by Chris F. Masse

POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson. by Chris F. Masse

Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”. by Chris F. Masse

BetFair’s brand-new bet matching logic by Chris F. Masse

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

The CFTC safe-harbor option for event markets by Jason Ruspini

CFTC regulation and election contracts by Jason Ruspini

WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets” by Chris F. Masse

Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)? by Chris F. Masse

Protecting Private Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell

Building Exits into CFTC Regulation by Tom W. Bell

Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks. by Chris F. Masse

ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Charles Plott (a big-shot economist) condemns all the hype surrounding the prediction markets and the wisdom of crowds. by Chris F. Masse

Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15. by Chris F. Masse

Insider Trading and Private Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell

CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon. by Chris Hibbert

CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts” —a.k.a. event derivative markets, event futures markets, betting markets, bet markets, prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

2020’s PREDICTION MARKET JOURNALISM = Polls + Experts + Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market). by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets: Powerful enough to be dangerous? by Jason Ruspini

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset. by Chris F. Masse

The Marketing Of The Reading Of The Public Prediction Markets = What Robin Hanson has deep trouble with, and what the prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) haven’t fully computed yet by Chris F. Masse

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