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The Best Resources On Prediction Markets
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The Last 200 Best Midas Oracle Posts On Prediction Markets
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David Pennock wants you to believe that InTrade needs Robin Hanson’s automated market maker. by Chris F. Masse
The Interdependence of Prices and Gold by Jason Ruspini
CFTC Takes Jurisdiction Over “Prediction Markets”. by Jason Ruspini
Book Review: The Limits of Transparency by Jason Ruspini
CrowdCast @ Under the Radar 2010 by Chris F. Masse
InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read. by Chris F. Masse
Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade? by Chris F. Masse
Truth in Advertising – Meet Prediction Markets by Paul Hewitt
SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO] by Chris F. Masse
Nate Silver explains how he builds his forecasting models. – [VIDEO] by Chris F. Masse
Hyping enterprise prediction markets in Mashable by Chris F. Masse
Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO] by Chris F. Masse
What Does Gold Hedge Against? by Jason Ruspini
The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL. by Chris F. Masse
Vernon Smith is bullish on event derivative markets (a.k.a. prediction markets). by Chris F. Masse
Critics of the efficient market hypothesis are all hat and no cattle. by Chris F. Masse
How the prediction market industry lied to the media (and the public, *YOU*) about Hewlett-Packard’s pilot tests regarding enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Jim Rogers: How to make millions on the financial markets without using Robin Hanson’s collective forecasting or James Surowiecki’s wisdom of crowds by Chris F. Masse
Andrew McAfee’s anecdote on enterprise prediction markets is a load of bullsh*t. by Chris F. Masse
The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!… by Guest Author
Robin, just because we don’t have another method of accurately predicting an outcome doesn’t mean we have to be so appreciative when a prediction market comes up with a forecast just before the outcome is revealed. by Chris F. Masse
Long-term prediction markets are usually very inaccurate for most of their durations. by Chris F. Masse
Robin Hanson’s long-term prediction markets are not very useful for proper decision-making. by Chris F. Masse
Yes, prediction markets “incentivize accuracy”, but there is no guarantee of success. by Chris F. Masse
Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL. by Chris F. Masse
Peter Schiff was right on the US recession coming (back in 2006 and 2007). by Chris F. Masse
Networks, Crowds, and Markets – Reasoning About A Highly Connected World – by David Easley and Jon Kleinberg by Chris F. Masse
Modeling Planet Earth is difficult. by Chris F. Masse
Ladbrokes’ shareholders must call for Bell’s head. by Niall O’Connor
Predicting the decision of a private committee is inherently a task ill-suited for prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
Financial Fiasco: How America’s Infatuation with Homeownership and Easy Money Created the Economic Crisis by Chris F. Masse
If Michael Giberson is wrong, then that means that Chris Masse is right. by Chris F. Masse
Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics? by Chris F. Masse
Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market by Chris F. Masse
Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016. by Chris F. Masse
Assessing the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Why BetFair does *not* want to share its profits with sports rights holders by Chris F. Masse
The truth about CrowdClarity’s extraordinary predictive power (which impresses Jed Christiansen so much) by Chris F. Masse
Finally, a positive corporate prediction market case study… —well, according to Jed Christiansen by Chris F. Masse
Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees? by Michael Giberson
Have the public prediction markets ever been taken seriously by the media and the decision makers during the 1988–2009 period? by Chris F. Masse
Tap The Collective – The Videos by Chris F. Masse
Bob Woodward on Investigative Journalism by Chris F. Masse
Do businesses need enterprise prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
“Tap The Collective” failed to convince me about the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets VERSUS Prediction markets on prediction markets VERSUS Conditional prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Professor Christopher Wlezien on his research on how election prediction markets compare to polls. by Chris F. Masse
When we score the accuracy of thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts across dozens of countries over twenty years, we find the best forecasters tend to be modest about their forecasting skills, eclectic in their ideological and theoretical tastes, and self-critical in their analytical styles. by Chris F. Masse
How BetFair Works = How BetFair lies about the history of the betting exchange industry by Chris F. Masse
Betfair slammed for misleading ad by Niall O’Connor
Felix Salmon Forgot About Prediction Markets? by Jason Ruspini
Prediction markets: Sticking to the letter of the contract VERSUS Interpreting intent by Chris F. Masse
CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with a market maker by Chris F. Masse
Don’t shoot the speculators. They predict prices, not set them. by Chris F. Masse
In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone. by Chris F. Masse
Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts? by Michael Giberson
The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist? by Chris F. Masse
Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach by Chris F. Masse
Even when well calibrated, prediction markets can be useless, nevertheless. by Chris F. Masse
What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting by Chris F. Masse
Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts by Chris F. Masse
Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization? by Chris F. Masse
Business Models by Chris F. Masse
“If prediction markets are not consistently more accurate than other means of forecasting, they will never have a chance in the business world.” by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise prediction markets have *no* benefits for businesses. by Chris F. Masse
Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software by Chris F. Masse
Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated. by Chris F. Masse
Why EPM consulting is still a pretty evangelical business. by Chris F. Masse
Blogging Against The Hype by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets: Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom by Chris F. Masse
Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Gartner: Enterprise prediction markets are between 5 and 10 years away from mainstream adoption —if ever they take off one day (taking into account that their benefit is “moderate” and that early users are “disillusioned”). by Chris F. Masse
Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.” by Chris F. Masse
The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
If prediction market advocates are so confident, why aren’t their claims more specific? by Chris F. Masse
The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy by Chris F. Masse
If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why aren’t they being used much more widely? by Chris F. Masse
Kay-Yut Chen of HP Labs + Mat Fogarty of CrowdCast by Chris F. Masse
Combinatorial Prediction Markets — David Pennock Edition by Chris F. Masse
“The fact that Inkling needs five bullet points and a graph to explain short selling is a good indication it’s too complicated.” by Chris F. Masse
Will prediction markets ever really take off? by Chris F. Masse
Some enterprise prediction markets work very well… —some others are just a waste of time. by Chris F. Masse
THE MOST OVERLOOKED DOCUMENT OF 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Assessing Prediction Markets 101 by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise prediction markets are not a disruptive technology; but merely another means of forecasting. by Chris F. Masse
Damped polls are superior to prediction markets as election predictors. by Chris F. Masse
Damped polls outperform prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
Awesome interview of the new BetFair CTO by Chris F. Masse
Mechanical Turk grades The Economist’s news article on enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing —not. by Chris F. Masse
What’s the big deal about the fluff on prediction markets in The Economist? by Michael Giberson
Opacity versus Openness by Chris F. Masse
Conditional Likelihood Loss — Redux by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise prediction markets: Usability innovation is the answer. by Mat Fogarty
Inkling Markets CEO Adam Siegel speaks out on the current state of enterprise prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
How vendors are scuttling the field of enterprise prediction markets —and the prediction market industry, as a whole by Chris F. Masse
The Economist: The enterprise prediction markets are flopping, big time. by Chris F. Masse
“It is their velocity that we should put to work.” by Chris F. Masse
“Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.” by Chris F. Masse
Accuracy and Efficiency of Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Velocity + Inaccuracy by Chris F. Masse
JFK + The passing of time + The prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit. by Chris F. Masse
The HHS–Sebelius prediction market might be (yet) another case-in-point for documenting velocity. by Chris F. Masse
Velocity is such a potent argument. Why don’t we use it more, for Christ’s sake? by Chris F. Masse
Whatever the expectations (whether they will end up being wrong or right), in complicated situations, the prediction markets aggregate them faster than the mass media do. by Chris F. Masse
The truth about prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
How Best Buy gather the collected wisdom of customers and employees to better predict future events by Chris F. Masse
Dealing with public perception and general anti-market sentiment by Jason Ruspini
Robin Hanson on combinatorial prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Obstacles to Prediction Market Adoption by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise. by Chris F. Masse
A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price by Chris F. Masse
Was the wreck of the USS Scorpion discovered thanks to collective intelligence? by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets react to polls. by Chris F. Masse
Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures by Chris F. Masse
Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends. by Chris F. Masse
Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures by Chris F. Masse
CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction markets about movie box office — Cantor Exchange by Chris F. Masse
A Canadian event derivative trader reflects on the future of InTrade and Tradesports. by Chris F. Masse
Are prediction markets useful to you? by Chris F. Masse
Are collective intelligence solutions being oversold? by Chris F. Masse
Are prediction markets useful? by Chris F. Masse
Don’t pump up the features of the prediction markets —instead, put the emphasis on their benefits. by Chris F. Masse
John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
“The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.” by Chris F. Masse
The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade. by Chris F. Masse
After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade. by Chris F. Masse
TradeSports ceases its operations. by Chris F. Masse
The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run. by Chris F. Masse
It’s Only A Game. by Chris F. Masse
Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges by Chris F. Masse
Does it matter that the prediction markets got the total number of electoral votes for Barack Obama (almost) spot on? by Chris F. Masse
The SEC and the CFTC will soon disappear into their own ***. Here’s what could be next. by Chris F. Masse
Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts by Mike Linksvayer
My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney by Chris F. Masse
What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common? by Chris F. Masse
The 2008 US presidential election was “pretty close”, and Nate Silver’s state poll aggregation “pretty much nailed” it. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets — The Day After by Chris F. Masse
How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise prediction markets help organizations mitigate risks. by Chris F. Masse
Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast. by Chris F. Masse
Zubin Jelveh explains how the market arbitrage opportunities between InTrade and BetFair evaporated just after Nate Silver’s post. by Chris F. Masse
The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count by Emile Servan-Schreiber
Futarchy Lite 2008 by Mike Linksvayer
Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather? by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise. by Chris F. Masse
What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
Are the polls accurate? — Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election by Chris F. Masse
Can InTrade’s prediction markets really “contribute to solutions in avoiding future [financial] crises”? by Chris F. Masse
The best research paper of the year 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Polls vs. Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Political prediction markets should “move beyond mere horse-race forecasts to demonstrate larger social value”. by Chris F. Masse
InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading. by Jason Ruspini
The gamble of downplaying manipulation by Jason Ruspini
Towards prediction market webpages (a la HubDub) that Google can index, that web visitors can land on directly (even after the event derivative contract expiry), that traders can comment on, and that bloggers can directly link to by Chris F. Masse
There is no manipulation going on in the InTrade political prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
InTrade CEO John Delaney states that prediction markets can prevent the next financial cataclysms. Surely. Prediction markets can also restore women’s virginity, and treat men’s baldness. by Chris F. Masse
Positives for prediction markets by Jason Ruspini
OneSeason.com by Chris F. Masse
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX by Chris F. Masse
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Long-Term Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Historical Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president? by Chris F. Masse
Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade’s electoral prediction markets by Guest Author
Nobel laureate Gary Becker and judge Richard Posner both wish that, one day, real-money prediction markets will be legal, without restrictions, in the United States of America. by Chris F. Masse
Do the top brass really tell everything to the trading employees? Do the EPM traders have access to all the primary indicators? by Chris F. Masse
Nigel Eccles (the CEO of HubDub) and Robin Hanson (the inventor of MSR) have some explaining to make about the extreme zigzagging of the Barack Obama event derivative (in blue on this static compound chart). Look at the right end of the chart. by Chris F. Masse
Is Intrade out on a limb? by Emile Servan-Schreiber
WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE. by Chris F. Masse
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain by Chris F. Masse
State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College = US Electoral Map by Chris F. Masse
InTrade-TradeSports has a web server misconfiguration problem, and CEO John Delaney has a character problem. by Chris F. Masse
Zocalo in use at MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence by Chris Hibbert
The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism. by Chris F. Masse
How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate? by Chris F. Masse
Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ? by Chris F. Masse
The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight. by Chris F. Masse
Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there). by Chris F. Masse
While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS. by Chris F. Masse
ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks. by Chris F. Masse
WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker. by Chris F. Masse
Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market by Koleman Strumpf
FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated. by Chris F. Masse
Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete by Chris F. Masse
Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard. by Jason Ruspini
Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
How does InTrade deal with insider trading? by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff. by Chris F. Masse
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