Prediction Markets

Best

Chris F. Masse

The Best Resources On Prediction Markets

Contents

The Best Charts Of Prediction Markets
The Best Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
The Best Internet Sites On Prediction Markets
The Best Midas Oracle Posts On Prediction Markets

1. The Best Charts Of Prediction Markets

2008 US Presidential Elections

- Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Current Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

2. The Best Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

- The Midas Oracle Explainer On Prediction Markets + The Probabilistic Predictions Generated By The Prediction Markets

- Prediction Market Science

- The Full List Of The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

3. The Best Internet Sites On Prediction Markets

Prediction Exchanges (a.k.a. Betting Exchanges)

#1. Real-Money Prediction Exchanges

- BetFair - TradeFair

- InTrade - TradeSports

- Betdaq - Global Betting Exchange (soon?)

- MatchBook

- SpreadFair

- Iowa Electronic Markets

- Bet 2 Give

- HedgeStreet

- Smarkets

#2. Play-Money Prediction Exchanges

- BetFair (play money)

- TradeSports (play money) - InTrade (play money) - WSJ Political Market - FT Predict

- NewsFutures

- Foresight Exchange

- Inkling Markets - CNN Political Market

- HudDub

- Reality Markets

- Cenimar

- Pop Sci Prediction Exchange

- The Industry Standard

- Hollywood Stock Exchange

- The Sim Exchange

- Media Predict

- The Car Stock Exchange

- Washington Stock Exchange

- Yahoo! Buzz Game

- Yahoo!’s Yootopia - (my wild anticipation)

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

Software For Prediction Markets

- Trading Technologies International - (CDA) - (later, maybe)

- BetFair - TradeFair - (CDA) - (later, maybe)

- InTrade - TradeSports - (CDA)

- Consensus Point - (CDA & MSR)

- NewsFutures - (CDA & +)

- Inkling Markets - (MSR)

- Xpree - (MSR)

- AskMarkets - (MSR)

- MicroSoft PredictionPoint - (MSR)

- HSX Virtual Markets - (CDA)

- Zocalo - (CDA) - (open-source)

- Google Internal Prediction Exchange - (CDA) - (internal only, as of today)

- Yahoo! - (DPMM) - (internal only, as of today)

- Gexid - (?)

- Nosco - (?)

- QMarkets - (MSR)

- List of the software packages for prediction markets at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the software packages for prediction markets at CFM

Books On Prediction Markets

- Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms For Public And Private Decisionmaking - by Michael Abramowicz - 2008

- Winning On Betfair For Dummies - by Alex Gowar and Jack Houghton - 2006

- Information Markets - A New Way Of Making Decisions - (PDF file) - edited by AEI-Brookings’ Bob Hahn and Paul Tetlock - 2006

- The Wisdom Of Crowds - Why The Many Are Smarter Than The Few And How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations - by James Surowiecki - 2004

Petitions On Prediction Markets

- Statement on Prediction Markets - (PDF file) - by AEI-Brookings - 2007-05-xx

Research On Prediction Markets

- Prediction Markets - (PDF file) - by Eric Zitzewitz and Justin Wolfers - 2005

- Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk - by Intel Corporation’s Jay W. Hopman - 2007-05-16

- Complete list of academic papers on prediction markets at CFM

- The Journal of Prediction Markets - (JPM)

- More scientific articles will be listed here, in the near future.

- Complete list of the scientific articles on prediction markets at CFM

Conferences On Prediction Markets

- Conference on corporate applications of prediction markets - by Koleman Strumpf - 2007-11-01

- Second workshop on prediction markets - 2007-06-12

- Confab Yahoo! on prediction markets - Streaming Video: 100k - 300k - 2006-12-13

News Articles And Opinion Pieces On Prediction Markets

- Prediction market platform taps the wisdom of employees, partners, customers - by Manufacturing Business Technology’s Karen Dilger - 2008-03-01

- When Markets Beat The Polls - (PDF file) - by Scientific American Magazine’s Gary Stix - 2008-03-XX

- Best Bet for Next President: Prediction Markets - Prediction markets can cut through the clutter of polls and pundits. - by Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal - 2007-12-31

- Mob wisdom means business - So-called ‘crowdsourcing’ lets companies create massive focus groups, garner fresh ideas, and even predict the future. - by InfoWorld’s Lena West - 2007-12-10

- YouBet - The wonders and dangers of online sports wagering. - (page 2) - [BetFair explained to the Americans] - by Slate’s T.D. Thornton - 2007-11-28

- The future of futurology = The prediction markets - by The Economist - 2007-11-xx

- Double or Nothing on the Democrat - [The history of prediction markets] - by The New York Times’ J. David Goodman - 2007-11-04

- Before it’s too late - [enterprise prediction markets] - by Adam Siegel (Inkling Markets CEO) for Forbes - 2007-11-02

- Crowdsourcing The Crystal Ball - by Forbes’s James Surowiecki - 2007-10-15

- Bet on It! - (page two - page three) - by Spectrum’s Steven Cherry - 2007-09-01

- Ask The Market - Companies are leading the way in the use of prediction markets. The public sector may soon follow. - (PDF) - by Region Focus’ Vanessa Sumo - 2007-07-20

- The Science of Success - The New Yorker’s James Surowiecki - 2007-07-09

- When enough people take a stake in the future, it’s like a crystal ball. - Page two. - Republished. - by The Associated Press’ Matt Crenson - 2007-06-23

- The Science Behind PPX - What’s the most accurate way to forecast the future? Simple: make predictions profitable—just like on the PopSci Predictions Exchange. - by Popular Science magazine’s Michael Moyer - 2007-06-15

- Tech lessons learned from the wisdom of crowds - CNET News’s Declan McCullagh - 2006-12-14

- The Election Investors - Political bettors were in force on trading sites, wagering on red or blue. - [WSJ $$$] - by Wall Street Journal’s E.S. Browning - 2006-11-09

- Why Gambling at the Office Pays. - Prediction markets that let workers place bets on business events help HP, GE and other companies make smarter moves. - by Business 2’s Erick Schonfeld - 2006-10-02

- CEO Guide to Technology - Workers, Place Your Bets - More corporations are setting up their own markets for economic forecasts, hoping to tap into the wisdom of employees. - by BusinessWeek’s Rachael King - 2006-08-03

- Business Solutions - How to Decide? Create a Market. - by Wall Street Journal’s Michael Totty - 2006-06-19

- The Future Divined by the Crowd - page two - (mirror) - by The New York Times’ Joe Nocera - 2006-03-11

- Capital Markets - Betting the Ranch on Your Company - While ”prediction markets” offer a venue to wager on the rise of a politician or the fall of a business executive, they might also provide a basis for useful corporate decision-making. - by CFO magazine’s Helen Shaw - 2006-03-06

- Can markets be used to help people make nonmarket decisions? - by Hal Varian - 2003-05-08

Blogs On Prediction Markets