Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

I TOLD YOU SO:

- “Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.“

- The prediction markets are not able to forecast which country will get the Olympics. The IOC is a close aristocratic group that does not leak information. Hence, it is not possible to aggregate information.

- Once again, Ben Shannon made a very bad bet. He should read Midas Oracle more often —if he wants to avoid personal bankruptcy.

- Once again, we see that the P.R. agents of InTrade and BetFair (who both bragged about being able to predict Chicago) were overselling.

- BetFair’s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

- InTrade’s event derivative prices (on the far right of the chart, you can see that the price went down to zero):

- HubDub’s event derivative prices:

Who will recieve the winning bid to host the 2016 Olympics?

- Here’s what happened to the Paris 2012 event derivative:

Next: Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?

Next: “I have to agree with Chris. The market participants did not possess a sufficient level of information completeness to arrive at the correct prediction.”