I am re-reading a 2007 scientific article from Region Focus’ Vanessa Sumo:

– Ask The Market – Companies are leading the way in the use of prediction markets. The public sector may soon follow. – (PDF)

Here is what I see on the frontpage:

– &#8220-one or two weeks in advance&#8220-

– &#8220-even up to five weeks in advance&#8220-

Marketing-wise, velocity is a much more potent argument than the argument on accuracy. Who cares about an added accuracy of +2.7% (and that&#8217-s debated)? If any, that&#8217-s peanuts.

You cannot make a case against velocity. Impossible.

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UPDATE: Put the PDF link in the address box of your browser (as opposed to clicking on it, or right-clicking on it).

http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/region_focus/2007/spring/pdf/feature1.pdf