What is a prediction market? – Definitions & Explainers

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Listing of explainers on prediction markets:

  • Yahoo! Answers
    • &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- — &#8220-prediction market&#8221-
  • Google Answers — This service has been decommissioned.
    • &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- — &#8220-prediction market&#8221-
  • WikiBooks — WikiBooks – (English) — Search for &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-
  • WikiNews — WikiNews – (English) — Search for &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-
  • Wikipedia — Wikipedia – (English) — Prediction MarketsBetting Exchanges — Derivatives — The Wisdom Of Crowds — Collective Intelligence — Forecasting
  • Handbook on Collective Intelligence – by MIT CCI

  • Midas Oracle
    • Explainer on prediction markets – at Midas Oracle .ORG
    • List of explainers on prediction markets – at Midas Oracle .ORG
    • &#8220-Explainers&#8221- post category – at Midas Oracle .ORG
    • Prediction Market Science – at Midas Oracle .ORG
    • Prediction Markets Timeline – at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • Robin Hanson
    • Idea Futures (not updated) — Futarchy — The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive – by Robin Hanson
    • Prediction Markets Definitions – by Robin Hanson – 2006-11-21
    • The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2007-09-05
    • The concept of Info Value – by Robin Hanson – 2008-01-14
  • David Pennock
    • Implementing Hanson’s Market Maker – by David Pennock – 2006-10-30
    • Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions – by David Pennock – 2006-12-26
    • Does Wisdom Require Markets? – by David Pennock – 2007-01-19
    • How and When to Listen to the Crowd – by David Pennock – 2007-02-09
    • Computational aspects of prediction markets – by David Pennock – 2007-02-09
    • The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming – by David Pennock – 2008-02-19
    • What is (and what good is) a combinatorial prediction market? – by David Pennock – 2008-12-22
  • Panos Ipeirotis
    • Defining Probability in Prediction Markets – by Panos Ipeirotis – 2008-01-13
    • Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy – by Panos Ipeirotis – 2008-01-14
  • Chris Hibbert
    • PM Intro: Basic Formats – [simple double auctions] – by Chris Hibbert – 2005-12-30
    • PMs with Open-Ended Prices – [markets with open-ended prices] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-01-05
    • Looking at Both Sides – [the symmetry of complementary purchases] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-04-17
    • Market Design: Book and Market Maker – [how to integrate an order book with an automated market maker] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-04-28
    • Increasing Liquidity in Multi-Outcome Claims – [the mechanics of multi-outcome markets] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-07-19
    • Continuous Outcomes: Bands, Ladders, and Scaled Claims – [predicting the value of a continuous variable] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-09-20
    • Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-09-20
    • Conditional and Combinatorial Betting – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2007-03-06
    • Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2007-09-10
  • New York Times
    • The History of Prediction Markets – by the New York Times – 2007-11-04
  • BBC News
    • How does a betting exchange work? How does BetFair work? – by BBC News – 2007-12-07
  • Forrester
    • Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – by Forrester – 2007-07-14
  • James Surowiecki
    • The Wisdom Of Crowds – by James Surowiecki – 2005-xx-xx


Are you aware of any/some explainer(s) out there not listed above? If yes, please e-mail me. Thanks. Appreciated. Will make up to you.

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