Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures
PART 1: EVIDENCE OF PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY
PART 2: WHY PREDICTION MARKETS ARE ACCURATE
Q&-A 1: Aren’t political prediction markets just following the polls?
Q&-A 2: Why did prediction markets fail to predict the lack of weapons of mass destruction in Irak?
Q&-A 3: Would market predictions still be accurate if everyone believed them?
Q&-A 4: Is Democracy ready for prediction markets?
Q&-A 5: How can trading prices translate into probabilities if individual traders don’t trade accordingly?