Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting

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Toward Info Accounting In Competitive ForecastingPPT file – by Robin Hanson – 2008-10-15

An interesting set of slides —though it’s about the technicalities of value assessment, and not about the big picture.

8 Comments to Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting

  1. October 22, 2008 at 2:01 PM | Permalink

    Well I thought it was about the big picture …

  2. October 22, 2008 at 5:53 PM | Permalink

    Yes, and we aren’t likely to get that big picture until we get serious about habitually accounting carefully for the costs and benefits.

  3. October 24, 2008 at 9:31 AM | Permalink

    I’m surprised to see the term “competitive forecasting” so carelessly used to refer to something unrelated to its origin as a specific NewsFutures tool. Then again, I’m not surprised to see Consensus Point (via its Chief Scientific Officer) following in this way in NewsFutures’ footsteps. Then again, if you’re going to follow, calling yourself  “The Leader”, as the new CP website so loudly brags, seems inappropriate.

  4. October 24, 2008 at 9:39 AM | Permalink

    Emile, do you see the phrase as a trademark referring to your specific tool?  We need a term broader than “prediction markets” to describe the class of related tools, and I thought the phrase you coined was a good choice for that.

  5. October 24, 2008 at 5:33 PM | Permalink

    Nothing to do with matters of trademarks and the like, but I wonder what percentage of PM consultants’ forecasts can be described as “decision markets”, i.e. conditional markets?  Seems like that’s where their value should be demonstrated because of smaller timescales, regulatory issues, etc   I hope those are the projects Dr. Hanson recently referred to when he said that he was considering a blogging hiatus.

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