Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Prediction market journalism should not be practiced by… the prediction market people… but by the vertical experts —with the help of the prediction market people.

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Last Wednesday, I published a post about the Obama-Clinton, with charts from the main prediction exchanges (InTrade, BetFair and NewsFutures). Today, I looked into the web stats reports. The post ranks #37 [*] in the list of the most popular pieces published since last Wednesday. In other words, it was an un-popular story. Nobody gives the first fig about Chris Masse writing on US politics.

Political prediction markets should be a tool used by trusted political experts reporting on the horse races and other issues. It’s in that perspective that I’m going to mind the future of Midas Oracle.

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[*] Surprisingly, Koleman Strumpf’s story ranks #5. Not that I’m jealous. :-D

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