Odds that Hillary Clinton gets the 2008 Democratic nomination = 1.56 (digital odds taken at 9:15 AM EST)
To get the implied probability expressed in percentage:
- Take the number “-1″–
- Divided it by the digital odds (here “-1.56″-)-
- Then multiply the result by 100-
- 64.1% = ( 1 / 1.56 ) x 100
BetFair-generated implied probability is not far away from InTrade’-s 62.1%.
Psstt…- This present post was prompted by Niall O’-Connor, who puts all his faith in the BetFair instant “-over-round”- —-which indeed doesn’-t add up to the virgin and perfect “-100%”- that Niall is seeking (like the Monthy Python were seeking the Holy Grail). Good luck for your quest, Niall.
Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!
External Resource: Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities – (PDF file) – by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz