Jed Christiansen outputs the best explainer on prediction markets I’-ve seen in years. Go read it.
– Fundamentals of Prediction Markets
– Different types of Prediction Markets
– Problem #1 – Understanding Probabilities
– Problem #2 – Prediction timescale
– Problem #3 – Assessing accuracy
– Problem #4 – Compared to what?
– Summary – How have the political prediction markets really performed?
Yes. Now, the objective is to put it under the very nose of the skeptics.
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Maybe I will send it to some people.
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Hey, get yourself a gravatar.
http://www.gravatar.com/