And a slam at the InTrade fanboys:
[…-] The classic first line of defense in these cases is to remind people that market “predictions” are really just probabilities [*], so any one outcome cannot invalidate the approach. The argument is sound and backed up by loads of data. But it would of course be much more convincing if we, as an industry, would remember to show at least as much humility when our market “predictions” appear correct instead. If you’re going to spread the idea that your market called all 50 states in the last U.S. presidential election because each correct outcome was predicted with over 50% chance, then you can’t hide behind probabilities when an 80% prediction comes to naught, as in Obama’s NH collapse. […-]
Excellent point, my Lord.
[*] Note that Midas Oracle is stuffed with phrases like “-probabilistic predictions expressed in percentages”-, and full of charts showing these probabilities.
Go reading his second point, now.
[…-] capturing the consensus opinion in a much finer and dynamic way than all the amorphous media buzz […-]
Because NewsFutures is a strictly hierarchical company, I assume the piece is from EJSS, even though our smart man did not sign it. Bad Karma. Anonymous texts have no weight on the Internet.
Author Profile -Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM —- Chris Masse’-s mugshot —- Contact Chris Masse —- Chris Masse’-s LinkedIn profile —- Chris Masse’-s FaceBook profile —- Chris Masse’-s Google profile —- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author…-
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- Good news: The BetFair blog now features a prediction market column. — Bad news: Their columnist is an anonymous writer with long hair… and dubious skills.
- Once again, a BetFair spin doctor misunderstands the prediction market approach.
- Tss… Tss… Surely, you are joking Doctor Giberson.
- Comments are still open on Midas Oracle.
- “I am much more aligned with InTrade than you are, Chris.”
- And the award for the most technology advanced software vendor goes to… the envelope, please…. QMARKETS in Israel. … [Cheers and applauses in the crowd.]