Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
Yahoo! Research does investigate prediction markets —see David Pennock (the inventor of the DPMM) et al.
MicroSoft Research does investigate prediction markets —see Todd Proebsting (“I lead Microsoft Research’s Information Forecasting Exchange project“).
Google Research does not investigate prediction markets —see this interview. (The prediction markets effort at Google is part of the 20% project of a group of managers.)
Paul Hewitt on The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform
Chris F. Masse on American Civics Exchange = CFTC-regulated Exempt Board of TradeChris F. Masse on The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care ReformPaul Hewitt on The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care ReformChris F. Masse on The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform
Jason Ruspini on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.Jason Ruspini on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Paul Hewitt on The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care ReformChris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”