Niall O’-Connor’-s comment:
All seats in the 30th Dail have now been filled, with the allocation of seats as follows: Fianna Fail 78, Fine Gael 51, Labour 20, Progressive Democrats 2, Green Party 6, Sinn Fein 4, Others 5. Fianna Fail are five short of an overall majority in the Dail parliament, which meets on June 14.
The most likely outcome for the next Government is a coalition between the ruling party Fianna Fail, the two Progressive Democrats, and some of the others (independents).
In relation to the Betfair market one would therefore assume that this would be the “-Any Other Party or Coalition”- option. However, on reading the rules, one sees that: “-Who will form the next government? Independents do not count for the purposes of this market.”-
So, we have the ridiculous situation, that those that backed a FF/PD coalition, expecting the PDs to do much better, will actually still be on a winner, because Independents are excluded from the market, even though the PDs will only form part of the next Government because of the presence of the Independents. And those that backed “-Any other party or coalition”- and did not read the rules will find themselves on a loser. Bizarre.
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
- THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
- Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
- Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
- Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
- If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
- 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).