What the hell is a predicted probability??

Chris F. Masse January 15th, 2007

In response to my previous rant, I’m told that:

#1. My criticism (expressed for the third time) about the bad usability of their big, rounded button has finally be digested.

#2. The “home page” they are referring to in their blog post is not the frontpage, but the home page for the Inkling play-money prediction markets. Ah. So I went there again, and I saw this:

Will Google’s stock price hit $600 before Dec. 31, 2007?

current prediction
The predicted probability is 57.5%

Bad. Better: The current probability for the $600 outcome is 57.5% —so, yes, Inkling is predicting that Google’s stock price will hit the $600 mark before Dec. 31, 2007.