How accurate are prediction markets in US elections?

No GravatarUnless you&#8217-re just just surfacing from an Afghan cave, you can easily guess who that &#8220-David&#8221- could be&#8230- :-D

Yahoo! Answers on prediction markets

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The Most Surprising Piece Of News I’ve Heard Today
  • My first prediction market plugin for WordPress
  • Self-Serving Prediction Market Of The Day — Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006
  • Prediction markets tend to be so illiquid, though, that mere activity looks like volatility.
  • Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson’s head gets cryogenized.