Small comforts of prediction markets

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Yesterday I had dinner with a friend I hadn&#8217-t seen for a few years. I asked what he&#8217-d been doing, apart from being a nerd, and he said he&#8217-d been spending too much time following the U.S. presidential campaigns (actually just the Ron Paul campaign, but that&#8217-s not particularly relevant here). I realized that I don&#8217-t do this anymore. It could be because I&#8217-m maturing, but I&#8217-ll give credit to prediction markets.

Most of the yapping in the media is about the horse race and personalities, which I don&#8217-t care about, other than the status of the former. Instead I check prices at Intrade most days, which gives me a more accurate and much more concise status update than any amount of time spent reading or watching commentary.

Furthermore, betting that candidates I detest will win and against candidates I mind less, even in small amounts, really helps me not waste time thinking (mostly distressed thoughts) about the election.

So thank you prediction markets for the time and peace of mind!

3 thoughts on “Small comforts of prediction markets

  1. Chris. F. Masse said:

    Prediction markets = a forecasting tool of convenience

  2. Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson's head gets cryogenized. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] market marketing —a bottom-up approach focused on quantifying in all dimensions the small population segment that can derive full joy from reading our prediction markets. That is ungrateful hard work, which […]

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