How do prediction markets benefit our society?

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[…] To advocates such as business professor Justin Wolfers, people can better plan their lives, their purchases and their businesses by knowing how much investors are willing to wager that, for example, mortgage rates drop.

It’s an empirical question, not a theoretical one: Does the market do better than polls or pundits in predicting outcomes? The short answer is yes,” said [Justin] Wolfers
, of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. […]

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
  • How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

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