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Eric Zitzewitz (at LinkedIn):

Current
- Associate Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College

Past
- Assistant Professor of Economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business
- Business Analyst at McKinsey & Co.

Education
- MIT
- Harvard College

He got tenure ahead of schedule. Congrats.

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Eric W. Zitzewitz at Darmouth

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Much better pic than the one displayed on his old Stanford page (where he looks like a prison guard).

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Eric Zitzewitz at Midas Oracle:

Volumes on InTrade are way up from 2004.
Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything.
An Employee Stock Option Prediction Market
Manipulation can affect prices.
XM-Sirius merger
Thoughts on Weather Bill
Prediction Markets for the CFO
Forget the polls and computers, let markets pick the top 2.

HedgeStreet “Binary Options” contracts on corporate mergers and acquisitions:

- NYSE & ISE
- Microsoft & Yahoo!
- Hershey & Cadbury
- Deutsche Borse & ISE
- News Corp & Dow Jones
- Sirius Satellite & XM Satellite Radio
- Nasdaq & PHLX (the Philadelphia Stock Exchange)

Previous: Mergers & Acquisitions prediction markets at InTrade-TradeSports

InTrade-TradeSports:

- XM and Sirius Satellite Merger
- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Merger
- NYSE and ISE Merger
- Microsoft and Yahoo Merger
- Hershey and Cadbury Merger
- Deutsche Borse and ISE Merger
- News Corp and Dow Jones Merger
- NASDAQ and Philadelphia Stock Exchange Merger

Click on “Financial” on the left menu.

- XM and Sirius Satellite Merger
- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Merger
- NYSE and ISE Merger
- Microsoft and Yahoo Merger
- Hershey and Cadbury Merger
- Deutsche Borse and ISE Merger
- News Corp and Dow Jones Merger
- NASDAQ and Philadelphia Stock Exchange Merger

Click on “Financial” on the left menu.

Via the intrepid Fabian John of the 1st Tick forum, the New York Times:

Still, it seems as if Mr. Karmazin may be paying a premium to do the deal now so that it can be rushed through the regulatory maze while the Bush administration is still in power. Many partners in mergers of equals wait around — often for years — until their stocks align. Mr. Karmazin disputes that view, contending that he wants a deal as soon as possible so that the savings can start. His view is that there “is no regulatory window.” In fact, he believes that the longer the companies, both now money losers, wait to merge, the better their chances would be in Washington. That’s because new technologies will continue to emerge that may prove to be competitive with satellite radio.

Previous: XM-Sirius merger + Sirius & XM prediction markets

Related: Satellite Radio prediction market at Yahoo! Buzz Game

TAKEAWAY: The relationship between the prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) and the bloggers (as opposed to the online media, which rarely link to the outside) is probably the most complex and mysterious area in the field of prediction markets. You will note that the issue of marketing (and internet marketing in particular) is never addressed by the scholars or the commenters. It’s a study of great interest to me, and I am going to deepen it. (I’m not pretending any superior mastering here.)

[*] As opposed to feed readers, whose behavior is unknown to me.

[**] Despite some very good web stats for yesterday, overall. (Average: 2.61 P/V — Visits: 325 — Pageviews: 849 — Again, keep in mind that that’s only the web readers; the feed readers are not counted in. Add 200 people, probably, to the number of visits.)

Addendum: The State of the Web-based RSS Reader Market – Feedburner, Pheedo Release Stats

(We’ve been waiting for a nice, juicy, controversial merger like this ever since Hp-Compaq.)

Interestingly, the MM has it at 60 bid/70 ask to close by June 08, but if you look at the stock prices of XMSR and SIRI, they have lost some of their initial announcement effect. There might be some free money on the table for the quick (I am abstaining).

If there is interest in this contract, I might be able to get them to run a contract on future subscription prices and subscribers (either conditional on the merger closing or just straight up). If you think about it, this could be an interesting tool for evaluating mergers in the future.

Like the idea? Spread the word.