Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: XM

Meet the tenured Eric Zitzewitz.

Eric Zitzewitz = Associate Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College – Greater Boston Area, MA, USA

Eric Zitzewitz (at LinkedIn):
Current
- Associate Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College
Past
- Assistant Professor of Economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business
- Business Analyst at McKinsey & Co.
Education
- MIT
- Harvard College
He got tenure ahead of schedule. Congrats.

Eric W. Zitzewitz at Darmouth

Much [...]

CNBC ALERT: HedgeStreet’s Russell Andersson – 2:50pm ET – Tuesday, June 5, 2007

CNBC – (& CNBC Europe, I believe) – Topic: Corporate Mergers & Acquisitions
HedgeStreet “Binary Options” contracts on corporate mergers and acquisitions:
- NYSE & ISE
- Microsoft & Yahoo!
- Hershey & Cadbury
- Deutsche Borse & ISE
- News Corp & Dow Jones
- Sirius Satellite & XM Satellite Radio
- Nasdaq & PHLX (the Philadelphia Stock Exchange)
Previous: Mergers & Acquisitions [...]

Mergers & Acquisitions prediction markets at InTrade-TradeSports

InTrade-TradeSports:
- XM and Sirius Satellite Merger
- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Merger
- NYSE and ISE Merger
- Microsoft and Yahoo Merger
- Hershey and Cadbury Merger
- Deutsche Borse and ISE Merger
- News Corp and Dow Jones Merger
- NASDAQ and Philadelphia Stock Exchange Merger
Click on “Financial” on the left menu.

Prawfs Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz: How many divisions??

XM and Sirius Satellite Merger — 125 transactions on the three prediction markets

XM-Sirius merger derivative – One transaction, only, so far

XM-Sirius merger contract at TradeSports-Intrade – One single trade, only, so far.
Via the intrepid Fabian John of the 1st Tick forum, the New York Times:
Still, it seems as if Mr. Karmazin may be paying a premium to do the deal now so that it can be rushed through the regulatory maze while the [...]

XM-Sirius merger — REDUX

As you know from reading this group blog yesterday, InTrade-TradeSports created a new set of prediction markets about the XM-Sirius merger. I looked into the web stats this morning, and the number of web readers [*] who clicked thru the InTrade contract link is INSIGNIFICANT [**].
TAKEAWAY: The relationship between the prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) and [...]

XM-Sirius merger

So at Justin’s and my suggestion, Intrade has just listed a contract on whether the XM-Sirius merger will close.
(We’ve been waiting for a nice, juicy, controversial merger like this ever since Hp-Compaq.)
Interestingly, the MM has it at 60 bid/70 ask to close by June 08, but if you look at the stock prices of XMSR [...]

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