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	<title>Midas Oracle .ORG &#187; www.betfair.com</title>
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	<description>Prediction Markets, etc.</description>
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		<title>Section 2.3 (k) of the BetFair API agreement says you can&#8217;t make a product which promotes any other prediction exchange. That&#8217;s evil, because it means we will never have any multi-exchange, order-entry and analysis software package for (real-money and play-money) prediction markets.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/24/betfair-api-software-vendor/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/24/betfair-api-software-vendor/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:15:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ethics]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[BetFair: TERMS AND CONDITIONS Software Vendor Special Terms: [e.g. waivers of prohibitions, consents, rights to use trade marks subject to guidelines, added warranties and/or indemnities and variations to the standard terms generally] (1) Subject to the due performance of his/her/its &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/24/betfair-api-software-vendor/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://bdp.betfair.com/index.php?option=com_memjoin&amp;task=Sport&amp;subscriptionType=Vendor">BetFair</a>:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;"><strong>TERMS AND CONDITIONS</strong></p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;"><strong>Software Vendor</strong> Special Terms: [e.g. waivers of prohibitions, consents, rights to use trade marks subject to guidelines, added warranties and/or indemnities and variations to the standard terms generally]</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(1)    Subject to the due performance of his/her/its obligations under this Agreement the definition of &#8220;Commercialise&#8221; is hereby amended so that it means &#8220;sell, rent, lease, or license all or any part of the Betfair API&#8221;, the restrictions set out in clauses 2.3 (e), (f), and (g) and the words &#8220;disclose or otherwise provide&#8221; in 2.3 (b) shall be deemed to be deleted SUBJECT ALWAYS to the User&#8217;s compliance with one of the following conditions (the &#8220;Waiver&#8221;)</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;"><strong>CONDITION 1: The User agrees that any usage of the Betfair API shall be solely in connection with bets that use the systems and servers of Betfair; </strong>OR</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;"><strong>CONDITION 2: The User has all necessary licences as may be required to make use of any third party data that may be incorporated into the Betfair API from the relevant third parties.</strong></p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">AND the User hereby indemnifies and holds Betfair harmless in relation to any liability Betfair may incur as a result of the User&#8217;s non compliance with the above conditions.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(2)    The User shall, solely in connection with and pursuant to the Waiver, be empowered to grant users of its freeware, shareware or commercial software applications with the right to use the same notwithstanding clause 2.3(i).</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(3)    The User will ensure that any freeware, shareware or commercial software applications that it provides to third parties for use in connection with the API shall, as well as general exclusions of liability, incorporate a specific disclaimer that must be accepted as part of the terms of installation as follows:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">DISCLAIMER</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">[INSERT NAME OF RELEVANT SOFTWARE] and our organisation is in no way connected to, warranted or endorsed by The Sporting Exchange Limited (&#8220;Betfair&#8221;) and by installing the [INSERT NAME OF RELEVANT SOFTWARE] you acknowledge and agree that Betfair can in no way be liable nor owe you any duty to support or otherwise take any steps whatsoever in relation to [INSERT NAME OF RELEVANT SOFTWARE]</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(4)    The User shall not provide any freeware, shareware or commercial software applications to any <strong>third party</strong> without first ensuring that such third party has entered into a licence for the use of the API with Betfair.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(5)    The User will ensure that it includes a Vendor ID Code (as defined in the Terms and Conditions) in all software that it provides to third parties that will be identifiable to Betfair when such third parties use the relevant software to access the Betfair API.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(6)    The User will not make its software available to <strong>third parties</strong> until it has the Vendor ID Code and once it does it will ensure that it is used at all times in conjunction with each individual software application.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;"><strong>(7)    The User shall not provide software for on-course Bookmakers without prior consent from Betfair.</strong></p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;"><strong>(8)    Any User with products being used by Betfair customers shall not provide those products <em>to any other betting exchange or betting company on an exclusive basis</em> such that Betfair customers can no longer access those products.</strong> For the purposes of the restriction set out in this clause functionality such as unmatched bets, lay bets, or any sort of person to person betting platform are included in the definition of &#8220;betting exchange&#8221;, and functionality allowing someone to place a bet is included in the definition of &#8220;betting company&#8221;.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(9)    If you are publishing Betfair prices, or data derived from Betfair prices, you need to clearly state that the prices are Betfair.com prices.  You also need to clearly link to the Betfair.com homepage or if you are publishing prices relating to a specific market to that particular market on Betfair.com.  It should be as easy as possible for anyone interested in betting at that price to click through to Betfair.com, open an account if wish to, and place that bet on Betfair.com.  There will of course be circumstances where this Term does not apply, such as a bookmaker deriving prices from Betfair and publish prices under his own brand.  However, in order for us to waive this term, you need specific consent in writing from Betfair. In any event, you shall not build any system that allows anybody to publish aggregated data from both Betfair and any other bookmaker, betting exchange or counterparty of any sort, or place bets on an aggregated price or amount of money derived from both Betfair and any other bookmaker, betting exchange or counterparty of any sort.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(10)    Advertising:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">a.    The only Betfair reference permitted in publicising applications is &#8216;for use in connection with Betfair, working through their API&#8217;.  Use of Betfair logos or other references is not permitted without consent.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">b.    Advertising must not leave the prospective buyer with the impression that the Betfair API somehow provides faster access to Betfair data than www.betfair.com.  This is not the case.  If the vendor wishes to talk about the speed of his service, it must be explicit that speed differences are as a result of the usability of the application.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">c.    Advertising must be in a form that is not prejudicial to Betfair in Betfair&#8217;s reasonable opinion.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(11)    Exchange Data</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">a.    For the purpose of this clause 11(a) above:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Exchange Data&#8221; means the publicly available pricing and volume data freely available on the Betfair Exchange or via the Betfair API; and</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Purpose&#8221; means making available the Exchange Data to users of the Betfair Exchange in whatever form and format is agreed in advance with Betfair;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">Subject to prior written consent, Betfair hereby grants the User a non-exclusive, non-transferable, terminable licence to use the Exchange Data for the Purpose provided always that the User fulfils the conditions set out in clause 11(b) of these Variable Terms.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">b.    As a condition of it enjoying the benefit of the licence granted in clause 11(a) above (the &#8220;Licence&#8221;),  the User must fulfil the following conditions and to the extent it does not, the Licence shall be automatically revoked:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(i)   the Exchange Data may only be made available to users of the Betfair Exchange who have a registered and funded account.  &#8216;Funded&#8217; means that the user has made at least one deposit into his account.  It shall be the User&#8217;s responsibility to verify the potential recipients of the Exchange Data are registered and funded users of the Betfair Exchange prior to making the Exchange Data available to them.  The User can do this by validating the potential recipient&#8217;s Betfair account details using Betfair&#8217;s web services.  The validation process will also enable Betfair to create a record that this user has access to the Exchange Data provided by the User. Betfair reserves the right to amend this condition such that additional requirements will need to be met by any proposed recipient of the Exchange Data. Any such amendments will be notified to the User and will take immediate effect.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(ii)   the User will, when requested by Betfair, provide Betfair with a record of all recipients of the Exchange Data such that Betfair is able to readily identify which of its users are accessing Exchange Data via the User;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(iii)  the User will, upon request, permit Betfair reasonable rights of access to its systems to enable Betfair to determine whether the User if fulfilling the conditions set out in clauses 11(b)(i) and 11(b)(ii) above.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">d.    The limitation and exclusions of liability contained in clause 9 of this Agreement shall be deemed to apply to Betfair&#8217;s provision and licence of the Exchange Data to the User.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">e.    The restrictions contained in clause 2.3 of this Agreement shall be amended but only insofar as to give effect to this clause 11 of these Variable Terms.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">General API</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.    DEFINITIONS AND INTERPRETATION</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.1    &#8220;Agreement&#8221; means the Term Sheet, these Terms and Conditions and any associated schedules;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Betfair API&#8221; means the data and functionality (commonly referred to as the application programming interface or API) contained on the Betfair betting exchange platform together with access to the relevant Web Services Definition Language (WSDL) file where required;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Betfair Terms and Conditions &#8221; means the terms and conditions, rules and regulations and privacy policy governing the use of the www.betfair.com web site as available for inspection at that site;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Business Day&#8221; means any day (excluding Saturdays and Sundays) on which banks generally are open in the City of London for the transaction of normal banking business;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Code&#8221; means encrypted data that enables Betfair to identify circumstances in which a particular software application is in use;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Commencement Date&#8221; means the date on which this Agreement is agreed to by both parties;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Commercialise&#8221; means sell, rent, lease, license or publish all or any part of the Betfair API for profit or otherwise use in a commercial or business context that does not equate to personal use or enable others to do so;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Confidential Information&#8221; means all information which is not publicly known and that is disclosed (by whatever means, directly or indirectly) by one party to the other, whether before or after the date of this Agreement including any information relating to the IPR, products, operations, processes, plans, intentions, product information, each party&#8217;s customer data the terms of this Agreement, market opportunities or business affairs of the disclosing party or any of its sub-contractors, suppliers, customers, clients or other contacts;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Content&#8221; means all Confidential Information, data and/or functionality accessible from the Betfair API;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Force Majeure&#8221; means any event outside the reasonable control of a party affecting its ability to perform any of its obligations (other than payment) under this Agreement;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Good Industry Practice&#8221; means the exercise of that degree of skill, diligence, prudence and foresight which would reasonably and ordinarily be expected from a skilled and experienced contractor acting in good faith;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Group&#8221; means, in relation to a company, any entity directly or indirectly controlling, controlled by or under common control of a party;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;IPR&#8221; means any and all patents, trade marks, service marks, rights in designs (including semi-conductor topography design rights and circuit layout rights), get-up, trade, business or domain names, goodwill associated with the foregoing, e-mail address names, copyright including rights in computer software (in both source and object code) and rights in databases (in each case whether registered or not and any applications to register and rights to apply for registration of any of the foregoing), rights in inventions and web-formatting scripts (including HTML and XML scripts), know-how, trade secrets and other intellectual property rights which may now or in the future subsist in any part of the world including all rights of reversion and the right to sue for and recover damages for past infringements;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Read Only Access&#8221; means access to the Betfair API with all the functionality set out in Schedule 1;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;Transactional Access&#8221; means access to the Betfair API with all the functionality set out in Schedule 2; and</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">&#8220;UserID&#8221; means the confidential security keys specific to the User issued by Betfair to enable access to the Betfair API.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.2    Headings to clauses are inserted for convenience only and shall not affect the interpretation or construction of this Agreement.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.3    Words importing the singular shall include the plural and vice versa.  Words importing a gender include every gender and references to persons include an individual, company, corporation, firm or partnership.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.4    The words and phrases &#8220;other&#8221;, &#8220;including&#8221; and &#8220;in particular&#8221; shall not limit the generality of any preceding words or be construed as being limited to the same class as any preceding words where a wider construction is possible.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.5    Any obligation to do or not to do something shall include an obligation to procure that it be done or not done.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.6    References to a party include that party&#8217;s successors and permitted assignees.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.7    In this Agreement, &#8220;control&#8221; shall have the meaning given to it in section 840 of the Income and Corporation Taxes Act 1988.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.8    This Agreement may be executed in any number of counterparts which together shall constitute one agreement. Each party may enter into this Agreement by executing a counterpart and this Agreement shall not take effect until it has been executed by both parties.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">1.9    Delivery of an executed counterpart of a signature page by facsimile transmission shall take effect as delivery of an executed counterpart of this Agreement provided that, if such method is adopted, each party shall provide the other with the original of such page as soon as reasonably practicable thereafter.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">THE PARTIES AGREE AS FOLLOWS:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">2.    LICENCE</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">2.1    In consideration of the payment by the User of the Access Fee in accordance with clause 4 below and subject to the terms and conditions of this Agreement, Betfair hereby grants to the User a non-exclusive, non-transferable, terminable licence to access the Betfair API solely for its own internal business purposes and for the purposes of developing software applications in each case in accordance with such other limitations and restrictions as set out in this Agreement.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">2.2    Betfair agrees to enable the User&#8217;s User ID with access to the Betfair API during the term of this Agreement. The User ID shall remain the property of Betfair and may be disabled from access to the Betfair API upon termination of this Agreement or upon occurrence of any of the events described in clause 2.3 below.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;"><strong>2.3    It is a condition of this Agreement that the User shall not do any of the following:</strong></p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(a)    assign, transfer, sub-license or disclose the User ID to a third party;<br />
(b)    assign, transfer, sub-license, disclose or otherwise provide any of the Content to a third party;<br />
(c)    collect personally identifiable information of any other user of the Betfair API;<br />
(d)        Commercialise the Content or access to the Betfair Exchange Platform;<br />
(e)    use the API in a manner which might enable a third party to interact with the web site www.betfair.com or any other web site owned or operated by Betfair;<br />
(f)    use the Content to provide market information to a third party for business or commercial use including but not limited to any use of the Content to create prices or a guide to prices for any commercial purpose;<br />
(g)    display data from the Betfair API via any electronically accessible medium without the express written consent of Betfair;<br />
(h)    create freeware, shareware or commercial software applications for use in connection with the API without the express written consent of Betfair;<br />
(i)    utilise software applications made available by third parties and intended for use specifically in relation to betting exchange functionality and/or the API other than with the express written consent of Betfair;<br />
(j)    use the Betfair API in a way which proves or is likely to prove detrimental to Betfair and/or the performance of the web site www.betfair.com.;<br />
<strong> (k)    use the Betfair API to develop and make available to any third party products or services which are designed to enhance the appeal of any betting exchanges offered by anyone other than Betfair;</strong><br />
(l)    breach the provisions of clause 7.2; or<br />
(m)    copy, reproduce, modify or use the API in any bureau, timeshare, or outsourcing arrangement or reproduce or on sell the whole or any part of the API whether aggregated with other data or otherwise;<br />
(n)    allow access to the Betfair API or Betfair data to anyone without first ensuring that the customer in question does not need a special purpose license such as the Commercial API License;<br />
(o)    provide products which aggregate or hide individual Betfair customer activity normally available to Betfair through individual use of the Betfair API or website without prior written consent from Betfair and without ensuring that they keep a record of that activity.  An example would be where a User reads Betfair prices and pushes them out to its customers in such a way that Betfair can no longer see the individual price reading of customers via the API market refresh services;<br />
(p)    allow anyone who is not logged into their Betfair account access to Betfair data without prior written consent from Betfair</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">2.4    By entering into this Agreement the User hereby agrees to the Betfair Terms and Conditions.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">3.    WARRANTIES OF THE USER</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">3.1    The User, warrants and undertakes that:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(a)    it has full capacity and authority and all necessary licences, permits, IPR rights and consents to enter into this Agreement and any other documents executed by it that may be associated with this Agreement;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(b)    this Agreement constitutes valid, binding and enforceable obligations of the User in accordance with its terms;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(c)    it shall at all times conduct itself with all due skill, care and diligence, including Good Industry Practice, and in accordance with its own established procedures and all applicable laws, enactments, orders, regulations and other similar instruments;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(d)    it shall comply with Betfair&#8217;s security guidelines and requirements as may be issued by Betfair from time to time whether in writing or otherwise.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">4.    ACCESS FEE</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">4.1    The User agrees to pay to Betfair an access fee in the sum and at the frequency stated in the Term Sheet (the relevant &#8220;Access Fee&#8221;). Unless otherwise specified prices shall be exclusive of VAT.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">4.2    Nothing in this Agreement shall require Betfair to make any payment to the User with respect to this Agreement.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">5.    INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">5.1    All IPR in the Betfair API shall belong to Betfair.  All IPR in any third party materials shall belong to the third party owner thereof.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">5.2    Nothing in this agreement purports to grant a license, provide any warranty or offer any indemnity in respect of any data that is not owned by Betfair. In the event that the User does require access to any such data, it agrees that it shall enable Betfair an opportunity to secure rights to the same and (if it becomes necessary to do so) the User will cover the costs of securing a licence to the same from the relevant third party data owner or either party may terminate this agreement immediately.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">6.    INDEMNITY</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">6.1    The User shall at its own expense indemnify Betfair against any claim against Betfair alleging an infringement by Betfair of the IPR of any third party arising through the User&#8217;s use of the Betfair API and pay any final judgement entered against Betfair in respect thereof except if and to the extent that any such claim arises from any breach by Betfair of its obligations under this Agreement.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">6.2    Either party shall immediately notify the other party if any claim or demand is made or action brought against it for any infringement or alleged infringement of any IPR which may affect the supply or use of the Betfair API.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">7.    DATA PROTECTION, PERMISSIONING AND SECURITY</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">7.1    The User will duly observe all its obligations under the Data Protection Act 1998 and any amendments thereto which arise in connection with this Agreement.  In particular the User shall ensure that it has adequate technical (and organisational) security procedures in place to prevent the unauthorised or unlawful disclosure of personal data.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">7.2    In order for any person to be able to access the Betfair API in conjunction with a Betfair-related product supplied by the User (a &#8220;Product&#8221;), it is necessary for Betfair to verify to the User that the party in question is registered to use Betfair&#8217;s services (each such party being a &#8220;Customer&#8221;). For the purposes of such verification (a procedure known as &#8220;permissioning&#8221;), Betfair will make available to the User &#8220;API Permissioning Services&#8221; which will enable the User to verify that any party in relation to which personal information has been provided to the User is a Customer (&#8220;Verified Customer Data&#8221;). The User&#8217;s access to the API Permissioning Services is supplied in consideration of and conditional upon the User agreeing not to utilise that Verified Customer Data for any purpose other than making Products available to the Customer and for the purpose of providing related support to that Customer.  If the User uses the Verified Customer Data for any other purpose, it shall be deemed to be in breach of this restriction and Betfair may immediately terminate this agreement in accordance with clause 12.1.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">7.3    The User acknowledges that the security of Betfair&#8217;s data and its systems is fundamental to the business of Betfair and if the User becomes aware of a breach or potential breach of security relating to the Betfair API, it shall immediately notify Betfair of such breach or potential breach and use its best endeavours to ensure that any potential breach does not become an actual breach and/or remedy any actual breach and its consequences.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">8.    CONFIDENTIALITY AND ANNOUNCEMENTS</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">8.1    During the term of this Agreement and after termination or expiration of this Agreement, the parties shall not use any Confidential Information for any purpose other than in pursuance of its rights and obligations under this Agreement nor disclose any Confidential Information to any person except with the prior written consent of the other party and shall use the same standard of security to prevent the use or disclosure of the Confidential Information as it does for its own Confidential Information.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">8.2    The parties may disclose any Confidential Information to their directors, other officers, employees, advisers and sub-contractors to the extent that such disclosure is reasonably necessary and in accordance with the requirements set out in clause 8.1.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">8.3    On termination the parties shall (on request) deliver up to the other party or destroy all copies of Confidential Information in its possession, and (if so requested) shall use all reasonable endeavours to destroy all copies of Confidential Information stored electronically.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">8.4    The parties shall together determine the content of any communications concerning the relationship between the parties. Such communications shall be issued at a time and in a manner agreed by the parties (acting reasonably).</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">9.    LIMITATION OF LIABILITY AND EXCLUSIONS</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">9.1    Save as provided by statute and to the fullest extent permitted by law, the following provisions set out the entire liability of Betfair (including any liability for the acts and omissions of its employees, agents and sub-contractors) to the User whether in contract, tort, statute, equity or otherwise:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(a)    The User acknowledges and agrees that (except as expressly provided in this Agreement) the Betfair API is provided &#8220;AS IS&#8221; without warranties of any kind (whether express or implied);</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(b)    All conditions, warranties, terms and undertakings (whether express or implied, statutory or otherwise relating to the delivery, performance, quality, uninterrupted use, fitness for purpose, occurrence or reliability of the Betfair API are hereby excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">The entire liability of Betfair in respect of any breach or default shall be limited to Â£1,000; and</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(c)    Betfair shall not be liable to the User for loss of profit (whether direct or indirect), loss of contracts or goodwill, lost advertising, loss of data or any type of special, indirect, consequential or economic loss (including loss or damage suffered by the User as a result of an action brought by a third party) even if such loss was reasonably foreseeable or Betfair had been advised of the possibility of the User incurring such loss.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">9.2    No exclusion or limitation set out in this Agreement shall apply in the case of:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(a)    fraud or fraudulent concealment;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(b)    death or personal injury resulting from the negligence of either party or any of its employees, agents or sub-contractors; and/or</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(c)    any breach of the obligations implied by (as appropriate) section 12 of the Sale of Goods Act 1979, section 2 of the Supply of Goods and Services Act 1982 or section 8 of the Supply of Goods (Implied Terms) Act 1973.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">9.3    The time limit within which the User must institute suit against Betfair to recover on any claim shall be 2 years from the date the User should reasonably have become aware or becomes aware of the relevant breach that would form the subject of the claim.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">9.4    This clause 9 shall survive the termination of this Agreement for whatever reason.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">10.    FORCE MAJEURE</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">10.1    If either party is affected by Force Majeure it shall notify the other party in writing of the matters constituting the Force Majeure and shall keep that party informed of their continuance and of any relevant change of circumstances whilst such Force Majeure continues.  Neither party shall have any liability to the other in respect of an event of Force Majeure provided it complies with clause 10.2.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">10.2    The party affected by Force Majeure shall take all reasonable steps available to it to minimise the effects of Force Majeure on the performance of its obligations under this Agreement.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">11.    TERM</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">This Agreement shall commence on the Commencement Date and, unless terminated earlier in accordance with clause 12, shall continue until the User ceases to pay the Access Fee specified in clause 4.1 at which time the User will (provided it gives notice of an intention to renew) have 24 hours to secure continued access by payment of the next instalment of the Access Fee or the Agreement will terminate.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">12.    TERMINATION</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">12.1    A party (the &#8220;Initiating Party&#8221;) may terminate this Agreement with immediate effect by written notice to the other party (the &#8220;Breaching Party&#8221;) on the occurrence of an event specified in clause 12.2.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">12.2    The events referred to in clause 12.1 are:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(a)    the Breaching Party committing an irremediable material breach of a material obligation under this Agreement;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(b)    the Breaching Party committing a remediable material breach of a material obligation under this Agreement and failing to remedy the breach within 10 Business Days of the Initiating Party giving reasonable details of the breach and requiring the Breaching Party to remedy such breach;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(c)    the Breaching Party goes into liquidation, either compulsorily or voluntarily or administration or a receiver, administrative receiver, receiver, manager or similar officer is appointed in respect of the whole or any part of its assets, or if Sub-Licensee make an assignment for the benefit of, or a composition or arrangement with, its creditors;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(d)    the Breaching Party failing to make a payment by such due date as may be specified in this Agreement provided always that in relation to any indebtedness of the Breaching Party, the failure to pay when due which shall be deemed a remediable material breach to be determined in accordance with clause 12.2(b) above;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(e)    there is a change in control of the User without the written consent of Betfair;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(f)    the User is in breach of any of the restrictions set out in clause 2.3 or clause 7.2.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">12.3    For the purposes of clause 12.2 a &#8220;material breach&#8221; means a breach which is serious in the widest sense of having a serious effect on the benefit which the Initiating Party would otherwise derive from a substantial portion of this Agreement over the entire remaining period of this Agreement or a reasonable portion thereof and a breach is remediable if the Breaching Party can comply with the obligation within the 10 Business days period in sub-clause 12.2(b).</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">12.4    Betfair may terminate this Agreement on one month&#8217;s notice in writing at any time for any reason provided always that it returns any Access Fee payments already made by the User that relate to any period that follows such termination date.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">12.5    The User may terminate on a month&#8217;s written notice at any time for any reason.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">13.    CONSEQUENCES OF TERMINATION</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">13.1    Termination of this Agreement shall be without prejudice to any rights or obligations which shall have accrued prior to termination.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">13.2    On termination of this Agreement all licences granted by Betfair to the User pursuant to this Agreement shall immediately terminate and the User ID shall be disabled for use in connection with the Betfair API.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">13.3    Within 10 days of the termination of this Agreement the User shall at Betfair&#8217;s sole option return or destroy all copies of the Content in its possession or control and a duly authorised officer of the User shall certify in writing to Betfair that the User has complied with this obligation.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">13.4    The expiry or termination of this Agreement for whatever reason shall not affect:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(a)    either party&#8217;s accrued rights and obligations at the date of expiry or termination;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(b)    the coming into force or the continuance in force of any provision of this Agreement which expressly or by implication is intended to come into or continue in force on or after such expiry or termination.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">14.    ASSIGNMENT AND SUB-CONTRACTING</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">14.1    The User shall not assign, novate, declare a trust of or otherwise dispose of this Agreement, or any part thereof, without the prior written approval of Betfair.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">14.2    The User shall be liable to Betfair for the performance of the User&#8217;s obligations under this Agreement and for the acts and omissions of its sub-contractors, and where the context requires, references to &#8220;the User&#8221; in this Agreement shall also include any relevant &#8220;sub-contractor&#8221;.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">15.    ENTIRE AGREEMENT</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">Subject to clauses 9.2 and 2.4, this Agreement constitutes the entire and only agreement between the parties with regards to its subject matter and each party confirms that it has not been induced to enter into this Agreement in reliance upon, nor has it been given, any warranty (including in particular any warranty as to merchantability, fitness for purpose or uninterrupted functionality), representation, statement, assurance, covenant, agreement, undertaking, indemnity or commitment of any nature whatsoever other than as are expressly set out in this Agreement and, to the extent that it has been, it unconditionally and irrevocably waives any claims, rights or remedies which it might otherwise have had in relation thereto.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">16.    CUMULATION OF REMEDIES</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">Subject to the specific limitations set out in this Agreement, no remedy conferred by any provision of this Agreement is intended to be exclusive of any other remedy except as expressly provided for in this Agreement and each and every remedy shall be cumulative and shall be in addition to every other remedy given thereunder or existing at law or in equity, by statute or otherwise.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">17.    NO PARTNERSHIP</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">Nothing in this Agreement and no action taken by the parties pursuant to this Agreement shall constitute, or be deemed to constitute, the parties as a partnership, association, joint venture or other co-operative entity.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">18.    WAIVER</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">18.1    No breach of any provision of this agreement shall be waived or discharged except with the express written consent of the parties.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">18.2    No failure or delay by a party to exercise any of its rights under this agreement shall operate as a waiver thereof and no single or partial exercise of any such right shall prevent any other or further exercise of that or any other right.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">19.    INVALIDITY AND SEVERABILITY</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">19.1    If any provision of this Agreement is or becomes (whether or not pursuant to any judgment or otherwise) invalid, illegal or unenforceable in any respect under the law of any jurisdiction:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(a)    the validity, legality and enforceability under the law of that jurisdiction of any other provision; and</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(b)    the validity, legality and enforceability under the law of any other jurisdiction of that or any other provision,</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">shall not be affected or impaired in any way thereby.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">19.2    If any provision of this Agreement shall be held to be void or declared illegal, invalid or unenforceable for any reason whatsoever, such provision shall be divisible from this Agreement and shall be deemed to be deleted from this Agreement and the validity of the remaining provisions shall not be affected.  In the event that any such deletion materially affects the interpretation of this Agreement then the parties shall negotiate in good faith with a view to agreeing a substitute provision which as closely as possible reflects the commercial intention of the parties.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">20.    NOTICES</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">20.1    Notices and communications shall be considered given or made:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(a)    where personally delivered, upon delivery at the address of the relevant party;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(b)    where sent by first class post, three Business Days after the date of posting;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">(c)    where sent by air mail, five Business Days after the date of posting;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">where delivered by facsimile or email, at the time of transmission, provided that a confirming copy is sent by first class post to the other party within 24 hours after transmission.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">21.    THIRD PARTY RIGHTS</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">The Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act 1999 shall not apply to this Agreement and no rights or benefits expressly or impliedly conferred by it shall be enforceable under that Act against the parties to it by any other person.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">22.    FURTHER ASSURANCE</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">Each party shall, upon request from the other, do and execute, or procure that there shall be done and executed, all such documents, deeds, matters, acts or things as that other may at any time require to give it the full benefit of this Agreement.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">23.    GOVERNING LAW AND JURISDICTION</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">23.1    This Agreement (and any dispute, controversy, proceedings or claim of whatever nature arising out of or in any way relating to this Agreement or its formation) shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law and the parties hereby irrevocably submit to the jurisdiction of the courts of England and Wales.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">24.    EXECUTION AND CHANGES TO AGREEMENT</p>
<p style="padding-left: 150px;">24.1    In order to be binding the pricing terms must be agreed as between the parties and inserted into the Term Sheet and then the Agreement must be printed by the user, signed by the user and sent to Betfair for final sign off at Waterfront, Hammersmith Embankment, Chancellors Road, Hammersmith, London W6 9HP. Any changes to the terms of this Agreement must be in writing.</p>
<p>-</p>
<p><em>Previously</em>:<a title="Is BetFair (a de facto monopoly) playing evil with traders and developers?" href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/23/is-betfair-a-de-facto-monopoly-playing-evil-with-traders-and-developers/">Is BetFair (a de facto monopoly) playing evil with traders and developers?</a></p>
<p>-</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE: <a title="Here's the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages ---separate the 2 functions." href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/06/20/entry-order-analysis-software/">Here&#8217;s the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages &#8212;separate the 2 functions</a>.</strong></p>
<p>-</p>
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		<title>BetFair&#8217;s Global Warming Prediction Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/22/betfairs-global-warming-prediction-markets/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/22/betfairs-global-warming-prediction-markets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Nov 2007 16:21:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange Genesis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchanges & Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barbara Follett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BetFair]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conservative MP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy-efficient machines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[event derivative markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[event derivatives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GBP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Green Grid Consortium]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greg Hands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[head]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[As you have seen, Niall O&#8217;Connor posted about BetFair&#8217;s Global Warming prediction markets, yesterday, Wednesday. I searched the Web and couldn&#8217;t find their announcement. So I e-mailed Robin Marks (the Head of the Media Department at BetFair), and he was &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/22/betfairs-global-warming-prediction-markets/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As you have seen, Niall O&#8217;Connor posted about <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/21/betfair-embrace-decision-markets/" title="BetFair embrace decision markets.">BetFair&#8217;s Global Warming prediction markets</a>, yesterday, Wednesday. I searched the Web and couldn&#8217;t find their announcement. So I e-mailed <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pub/5/13b/8ab" title="Robin Marks">Robin Marks</a> (the Head of the Media Department at <a href="http://www.betfair.com/" title="BetFair">BetFair</a>), and he was kind enough to send me the press release. I am publishing it here, just below. <em>I will have a comment on it, later on, after the Thanksgiving holiday</em>.</p>
<blockquote><p>BetFair</p>
<p>News Release<br />
21st November 2007</p>
<p>Betfair Launches Climate Markets <strong>[#1]</strong></p>
<p>And sets out its own environmental strategy <strong>[#2]</strong></p>
<p><strong>[#1] </strong>Betfair, the worldâ€™s leading betting exchange, has launched a series of <strong><em>innovative</em> betting markets</strong> which will provide clear indications of how public opinion views the on-going debate about climate change, by allowing people to speculate on climate indices developed to track the extent (or otherwise) of global warming.</p>
<p>Betfairâ€™s unique exchange model will create a market price for <strong>climate change related outcomes</strong>, including the <a href="http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20687712&amp;ex=1&amp;origin=MRL" title="HSBC Climate Index">HSBC Investable Climate Change Index</a>, the <a href="http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20687711&amp;ex=1&amp;origin=MRL" title="Carbon Futures">ECX CFI Futures Contract</a>, and <a href="http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20687710&amp;ex=1&amp;origin=MRL" title="BetFair">Highest</a> and <a href="http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20687709&amp;ex=1&amp;origin=MRL">Lowest</a> UK Temperature.</p>
<p><strong>â€˜Decision marketsâ€™ have historically proved to be accurate gauges of political, economic and cultural change and better forecasters of the future than opinion polls and expert forecasts.  Efficient market theory suggests that these climate markets will be the best aggregation of all the available information on the subject.  <em>This is the ideal place for experts, academics, businesses and interested parties to put money behind their views on long-range forecasts</em>.</strong></p>
<p>Mark Davies, Betfairâ€™s Managing Director Corporate Affairs, said: â€œWhilst these climate markets are experimental, they demonstrate a commitment to use our assets to <strong><em>innovate and make a difference</em></strong>.â€</p>
<p>The commission that Betfair earns from operating these markets will be ring-fenced and invested in the development of technologies to tackle the wider issue of climate change.</p>
<p><strong>[#2] At the same Betfair is launching its own environmental policy to tackle climate change head-on. </strong>It has set ambitious targets to reduce the environmental impact of its business and work with peers, customers and suppliers to reduce theirs. Betfair has committed to reducing its carbon footprint by 30% per pound of revenue by the end of 2010, as it sets out its vision to be a leading online business in the area of environmental responsibility.</p>
<p>Its carbon footprint has recently been measured at 3,277 tonnes, which is about 17 tonnes per Â£1m of revenue. The target is to reduce this by 30% by the end of 2010 to 12 tonnes per Â£1m of revenue.</p>
<p>Commitment to this ambition has already been demonstrated over the past year by significant enhancements to its recycling and green procurement efforts.  Its own â€˜Green Supplier Awardâ€™ best illustrates efforts to stimulate and challenge its suppliers. Betfair is essentially a technology business and therefore â€˜Green Computingâ€™ is particularly pertinent.  As well as a focus on more energy-efficient machines, storage virtualisation and power reduction have also been tackled.</p>
<p>Betfair is now in a position, having had these early initiatives in place, to progress more ambitiously with its full environmental strategy.  The programme has four main themes:</p>
<p>â€“    Operations: Challenging the business to minimise its environmental impact<br />
â€“    Partnership: Engaging partners and customers on these issues<br />
â€“    Innovation: Exploring new technologies and ways of working<br />
â€“    Leadership: Learning from others and sharing what it learn.</p>
<p>â€œWe recognise that the day-to-day running of our operations has an effect on the local, regional and global environment and it is therefore our responsibility to manage this impact. Climate change is a priority for Betfair across all parts of the business,â€ said Mark Davies.</p>
<p>Conservative MP Greg Hands, from his constituency in which Betfairâ€™s head office is located, supported the strategy: â€œReducing carbon emissions requires fresh and innovative thinking and therefore it is encouraging to see a company in my Hammersmith &amp; Fulham constituency like Betfair transforming the way it does business and developing new technologies to reduce its environmental impact. Effective methods for cutting emissions need to be developed as part of all businessesâ€™ long-term strategies.â€</p>
<p>From Stevenage, where Betfairâ€™s second UK office is situated, Labour MP Barbara Follett added: â€œBetfairâ€™s decision to adopt an Environmental Strategy is very welcome. I am particularly pleased that the company is now committed to reducing its carbon footprint by 30% per pound of turnover by the end of 2010.</p>
<p>Betfairâ€™s has recognised that climate change is not just a problem for governments. If we are to reach our carbon reduction targets everyone, including business, has to get involved.  So, well done Betfair. I hope that others will follow where you have led.â€</p>
<p>ENDS</p>
<p>Notes to Editors:<br />
1.    <strong>Betfair (<a href="http://www.betfair.com/" title="BetFair">www.betfair.com</a>) operates a betting exchange â€“ <em>concept it pioneered</em>. A betting exchange allows punters to bet at prices set by punters themselves rather than by a bookmaker, which means that Betfair is the most accurate barometer of public opinion.</strong><br />
2.    Betfair was launched in June 2000 and is the UKâ€™s No 1 online betting company. At peak times the exchange matches up to <strong>300 bets a second.</strong><br />
3.    The company employs over <strong>1200 people</strong> in its main offices in London, Stevenage, Malta and Tasmania, Australia.<br />
4.    Existing environmental initiatives include:<br />
- recycling decommissioned IT equipment through Computer Aid International<br />
- comprehensive recycling policy and a general &#8220;Paper Use&#8221; policy<br />
- &#8216;cycle to work&#8217; scheme as the start of a review into employee travel<br />
- members of the Green Grid Consortium<br />
- Betfair Green Supplier Awards to stimulate and challenge our suppliers.</p></blockquote>
<p>APPENDIX: <a href="http://www.hsbc.com.hk/1/PA_1_3_S5/content/cr/common/pdf/Climate%20Change%20Benchmark%20Index_Full%20report.pdf" title="HSBC">HSBC Investable Climate Change Index &#8211; PDF file</a> + <a href="http://www.europeanclimateexchange.com/" title="European Climate Exchange">European Climate Exchange</a></p>
<p><em>NEXT</em>: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/11/29/betfair%e2%80%99s-global-warming-prediction-markets-cfms-views/" title="My prediction is that the first two BetFair Global Warming prediction markets will fail miserably.">BetFairâ€™s Global Warming Prediction Markets &#8212; CFM&#8217;s Views</a></p>
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		<title>The definitive proof that Emile Servan-Schreiber, the NewsFutures CEO, is an essential part of the world-wide conspiracy aiming at silencing BetFair.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/19/the-definitive-proof-that-emile-servan-schreiber-the-newsfutures-ceo-is-an-essential-part-of-the-world-wide-conspiracy-aiming-at-silencing-betfair/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/19/the-definitive-proof-that-emile-servan-schreiber-the-newsfutures-ceo-is-an-essential-part-of-the-world-wide-conspiracy-aiming-at-silencing-betfair/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Sep 2007 05:34:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis (Industry)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchanges & Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Humor]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Emile Servan-Schreiber]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[[This post is filed in the "humor" category, of course. ] &#8212; Take a look at the blogroll of the NewsFutures blog, which cites everybody but BetFair: Recent Posts UC Riversideâ€™s eLab eXchange : featuring Competitive Forecasting and IdeaÂ Pageants Demise &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/19/the-definitive-proof-that-emile-servan-schreiber-the-newsfutures-ceo-is-an-essential-part-of-the-world-wide-conspiracy-aiming-at-silencing-betfair/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[This post is filed in the "humor" category, of course. <img src='http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif' alt=':-D' class='wp-smiley' />  ]</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>Take a look at <a href="http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/" title="NewsFutures blog">the blogroll of the NewsFutures blog</a>, <strong>which cites everybody but BetFair:</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>Recent Posts</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2007/09/18/uc-riversides-elab-exchange-featuring-competitive-forecasting-and-idea-pageants/">UC Riversideâ€™s eLab eXchange : featuring Competitive Forecasting and IdeaÂ Pageants </a><br />
<a href="http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2007/05/24/demise-of-the-sarko-killer/">Demise of a SarkoÂ Killer </a><br />
<a href="http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2007/02/22/results-of-the-dutch-political-stock-market/">Results of the Dutch Political StockÂ Market </a><br />
<a href="http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2007/02/20/los-angeles-conference-on-collective-intelligence-networks/">Los Angeles conference on collective intelligenceÂ networks </a><br />
<a href="http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/2007/02/15/washington-dc-conference-on-prediction-markets/">Washington DC conference on predictionÂ markets </a></p></blockquote>
<p>Blogroll</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/" title="Indutry blog by Chris Masse">Midas Oracle</a><br />
<a href="http://blog.oddhead.com/" title="David Pennockâ€™s prediction markets blog">Odd Head</a><br />
<a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/" title="Robin Hansonâ€™s Blog (&amp; friends)">Overcoming Bias</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Markets Powered By NewsFutures</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://weforum.newsfutures.com/" title="World Economic Forum Predictions about risks on a global scale">Davos Global Risks</a><br />
<a href="http://www.elabexchange.com/" title="Predictions for a Digital World">eLab eXchange</a><br />
<a href="http://us.newsfutures.com/" title="Predictions about politics, current events, finance and sports">NewsFutures Exchange</a><br />
<a href="http://buzz.research.yahoo.com/" title="Predicting the popularity of technology buzz-words">Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game</a></p></blockquote>
<p>NewsFutures</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.newsfutures.com/" title="Information on the company and its business offerings: software, consulting, solutions.">Company Website</a><br />
<a href="http://newsfutures.wordpress.com/feed/" title="RSS feed for this blog">RSS FEED</a></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Other Public Prediction Markets of Note</strong></p>
<blockquote><p><strong><a href="http://www.hsx.com/" title="Predicitng all things Hollywood since 1996 - Play-money only.">Hollywood Stock Exchange</a><br />
<a href="http://www.intrade.com/" title="Ireland-based, US-focused general interest prediction market - real money.">Intrade</a><br />
<a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/" title="The original political prediction market, operated by the University of Iowa Business School - real money.">Iowa Electronic Markets</a></strong></p></blockquote>
</blockquote>
<p>Frankly, I do believe that <a href="http://www.betfair.com/" title="BetFair">BetFair</a>, the world&#8217;s #1 betting exchange, is &#8220;of note&#8221;, <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/23/does-betting-exchange-betfair-handle-more-daily-trades-than-the-new-york-stock-exchange/" title="Does betting exchange BetFair handle more daily trades than the New York Stock Exchange?">because of its great liquidity</a>.</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>Now, seriously, <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/16/hanson%e2%80%99s-market-scoring-rule-explained-in-five-sentences-why-betfair-gets-so-little-us-press-coverage-and-other-half-baked-commentary-by-michael-giberson/" title="Hansonâ€™s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson">let&#8217;s re-read Mike Giberson&#8217;s take</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong><a href="http://www.betfair.com/">BetFair</a> gives every impression of being a success at sports betting, but sports betting generally doesnâ€™t generate a lot of U.S. press</strong> unless corruption of some sort is involved. (And, by the way, <a href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/ny-sphow075362301sep07,0,3948384.column">BetFair <em>was</em> mentioned in U.S. media</a> in conjunction with the ATP match-fixing suspicions.)</p>
<p>Does BetFair have a Ron Paul contract? I canâ€™t find the political markets on <a href="http://www.betfair.com/">www.betfair.com</a>. Ah, click on â€œ<a href="http://sports.betfair.com/">BetFair Sports</a>â€ scroll down through the list of â€œAll Marketsâ€, and there lies â€œPoliticsâ€ between â€œRugby Leagueâ€ and â€œPoker.â€ Select â€œUSA,â€ select â€œRepublican candidates.â€ Aha! There he is at â€œ24â€ in decimal odds (or, alternately, at 23/1 standard odds). A quick calculation indicates an implied 4.1 percent chance of receiving the GOP nomination.</p>
<p><strong>I suspect American reporters (1) find it easier to locate the American political markets on Intrade, and (2) find prices directly interpretable as probabilities easier to report.</strong></p>
<p>Also, the charts are hard to find (hidden as a link attached to the name, but the name is just black text against a white background and gives no indication that a chart and other information is available by clicking the name). If a reporter finds the market, clicks on the hidden link, and clicks the â€œInverse Axisâ€ box under the chart, then finally the reporter gets an easy-to-interpret implied probability chart.</p>
<p>While BetFair obviously works for experienced bettors, <strong>inexperienced visitors are given little help</strong> in discovering information that readily feeds into news stories. If BetFair wants the free publicity, <a href="http://www.usablemarkets.com/?p=96">it will need to be easier for reporters</a> to get what they want.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Hansonâ€™s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/16/hanson%e2%80%99s-market-scoring-rule-explained-in-five-sentences-why-betfair-gets-so-little-us-press-coverage-and-other-half-baked-commentary-by-michael-giberson/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/16/hanson%e2%80%99s-market-scoring-rule-explained-in-five-sentences-why-betfair-gets-so-little-us-press-coverage-and-other-half-baked-commentary-by-michael-giberson/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Sep 2007 04:51:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Giberson</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[[Chris Masse invited me to submit to an email interview. Iâ€™m responding here to Chrisâ€™s questions, rendered in italics below. I'm not sure that anyone other than Chris will be interested, and half-way through he may regret this idea himself. &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/16/hanson%e2%80%99s-market-scoring-rule-explained-in-five-sentences-why-betfair-gets-so-little-us-press-coverage-and-other-half-baked-commentary-by-michael-giberson/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[Chris Masse invited me to submit to an email interview. Iâ€™m responding here to Chrisâ€™s questions, rendered in italics below. I'm not sure that anyone other than Chris will be interested, and half-way through he may regret this idea himself.  This piece may single handedly kill off <strike>60</strike> 90 percent of the interest in MO.  Enjoy. -MG]</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>Who the hell are you? You came out of nowhere, in June 2007, and in the space of three short months, you&#8217;ve become a Midas Oracle fixture. What&#8217;s driving you to writing on prediction markets?</em></li>
</ul>
<p>Iâ€™m an economist with a PhD out of George Mason University. My research at GMU revolved around <a href="http://www.gibersonco.com/dissertation.htm">electric power markets</a>, but while working with Vernon Smith and other experimentalists at ICES, and I was exposed to prediction markets. I write about prediction markets because I think about them, and I think about prediction markets because I find them fun, interesting, and potentially useful.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>I got it that professor Robin Hanson was your next-door colleague, during your stint at George Mason University. How can you describe him, on a personal level? Is he aloof or is a good chap? [chap = British lingo]</em></li>
</ul>
<p>After finishing my PhD I had a one-year research position at GMU, and because of space constraints at ICES I was put into one side of Robin Hansonâ€™s office. (This was not his main office on campus, just the one he had on the Arlington campus.) In my experience Hanson is an ordinary and nice person, who also happens to be extremely bright, holds a number of beliefs that many people would find strange, is fairly passionate about his beliefs, and is unusually willing to consider alternatives to those beliefs.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>Please explain Robin Hanson&#8217;s invention, the Market Scoring Rules, in 10 sentences maximum.</em></li>
</ul>
<p>A â€œscoring ruleâ€ is a formula used to assess the quality of forecasts. Because a scoring rule can be used to assess quality of forecasts, it can also be used to reward forecasters. <strong><a href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/combobet.pdf">Hanson realized</a> (i.e., invented the idea) that a group of forecasters could sequentially share a common forecast, with a scoring rule used to reward forecasters for incremental improvements made to the forecast. Hanson further developed his idea by describing how a prediction market could employ a market scoring rule to serve as an automated market maker. </strong></p>
<p>While different market scoring rules are possible, Hanson noted that the <a href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/mktscore.pdf">logarithmic market scoring rule</a> has a number of desirable properties, and that approach appears to have been most commonly adopted.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>Are you paid by Adam Siegel (the Inkling CEO) to blog about their prediction exchange (betting exchange)?</em></li>
</ul>
<p>Unfortunately no, Iâ€™m an amateur. (Maybe someday someone will pay me for this stuff. Make me an offer.) I blog about <a href="http://inklingmarkets.com/">Inkling</a> because I use Inkling and I try to blog about what I know.</p>
<p>(I also blog about economics, energy regulation, music, technology and many other topics at <a href="http://www.knowledgeproblem.com/">Knowledge Problem</a>.)</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>Why do you prefer speculating on Inkling Markets as opposed to NewsFutures or the play-money InTrade-TradeSports?</em></li>
</ul>
<p>I think a couple of things attract me to Inkling â€“ I like that it uses a LMSR-based automated market maker, I like the user interface (or at least, I did up until Friday morning; not too sure about the recent changes). To some extent, that fact that Iâ€™ve been somewhat successful keeps me coming back â€“ if I fell off the â€œall timeâ€ <a href="http://home.inklingmarkets.com/site/leaderboard">top ten list</a> at Inkling, maybe I would devote more energy elsewhere. I guess social rewards work. But <strong>I like the â€œ<a href="http://inklingmarkets.blogspot.com/2006/05/make-your-own-markets-released.html">do it yourself</a>â€ aspect a lot, it gives the place something of a bazaar atmosphere. </strong></p>
<p>Probably, I should venture out more and expand my horizons.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>I am very reluctant to cite any of the Inkling prediction markets on Midas Oracle, as long as I&#8217;m uncertain of the reputation of who expire those event derivatives. Agree, disagree?</em></li>
</ul>
<p>I agree. <strong>Expiration and poor contract definition and market abandonment are all <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/28/inkling-markets-no-good/">problems that trouble the markets</a>.</strong> (Some of <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/">these problems</a> are <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/05/intrade-expired-the-larry-craig-prediction-market-too-early/">not exclusively</a> the province of the do-it-yourselfers.) Iâ€™m beginning to agree with you that Inkling should adopt some sort of reputation or reward system for market managers. Maybe a â€˜top tenâ€™ managers list ranked by activity. At the least, Inkling could append a list of current and expired markets at the bottom of the market managerâ€™s user profile page. Iâ€™ve noticed a <a href="http://home.inklingmarkets.com/profiles/1382" title="Char">few</a> <a href="http://home.inklingmarkets.com/profiles/6532" title="zakarria">users</a> that manually list their markets on their profile page, and that is a start.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION:<em> I believe that there are two big conspiracies in America. Number one, they want to silence Ron Paul. Number two, they&#8217;ll do everything they can to avoid citing BetFair, the world&#8217;s biggest prediction exchange (betting exchange). I&#8217;m asking you, if BetFair gets the second most liquidity on US political prediction markets, why doesn&#8217;t BetFair get cited just after InTrade-TradeSports (the market leader in North-America)? BetFair is never mentioned anywhere. Not fair.</em></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="http://www.betfair.com/">BetFair</a> gives every impression of being a success at sports betting, but sports betting generally doesnâ€™t generate a lot of U.S. press unless corruption of some sort is involved. (And, by the way, <a href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/ny-sphow075362301sep07,0,3948384.column">BetFair <em>was</em> mentioned in U.S. media</a> in conjunction with the ATP match-fixing suspicions.)</p>
<p>Does BetFair have a Ron Paul contract? I canâ€™t find the political markets on <a href="http://www.betfair.com">www.betfair.com</a>. Ah, click on â€œ<a href="http://sports.betfair.com/">BetFair Sports</a>â€ scroll down through the list of â€œAll Marketsâ€, and there lies â€œPoliticsâ€ between â€œRugby Leagueâ€ and â€œPoker.â€ Select â€œUSA,â€ select â€œRepublican candidates.â€ Aha! There he is at â€œ24â€ in decimal odds (or, alternately, at 23/1 standard odds). A quick calculation indicates an implied 4.1 percent chance of receiving the GOP nomination.</p>
<p>I suspect American reporters (1) find it easier to locate the American political markets on Intrade, and (2) find prices directly interpretable as probabilities easier to report.</p>
<p>Also, the charts are hard to find (hidden as a link attached to the name, but the name is just black text against a white background and gives no indication that a chart and other information is available by clicking the name). If a reporter finds the market, clicks on the hidden link, and clicks the â€œInverse Axisâ€ box under the chart, then finally the reporter gets an easy-to-interpret implied probability chart.</p>
<p>While BetFair obviously works for experienced bettors, <strong>inexperienced visitors are given little help</strong> in discovering information that readily feeds into news stories. If BetFair wants the free publicity, <a href="http://www.usablemarkets.com/?p=96">it will need to be easier for reporters</a> to get what they want.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>The PopSci PPX betting exchange has plenty of technology and science prediction markets. I love them. Do you foresee the generalist prediction exchanges taking on science and technology, one day? If yes, why, and, if not, why not.</em></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Science and technology markets are harder to do than sports or election picks</strong>. <strong>Expiration can be difficult, because science is naturally messy. Lots of gray areas will have to be sorted out</strong> in the contract well in advance. In addition, interesting science and technology questions often will play out over years (or decades). It is not obvious that such markets would offer a money making opportunity for a prediction exchange, nor sustain active trader participation.</p>
<p>But <a href="http://ppx.popsci.com/security/index_list.php?category=3">PPX is experimenting</a> in a play money environment in which it is cheap to explore and discover what works and what doesnâ€™t. I suspect that the generalist exchanges will continue to try out new ideas too. Maybe these fine people will sort it out. I donâ€™t think it will become a big business for anyone anytime soon.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>The Sim Exchange has recently stated that it will open product quality prediction markets, using MetaCritic as expiry source. What kinds of quality prediction markets would be socially valuable? Any ideas?</em></li>
</ul>
<p>I like <a href="http://www.thesimexchange.com/">SimExchange</a>, they seem to be working <a href="http://www.thesimexchange.com/blog.php">pretty hard</a> (and <a href="http://www.dailygame.net/news/archives/006591.php">pretty smart</a>) to make their business work. <strong>The <a href="http://www.thesimexchange.com/blogpost.php?post_id=396">quality markets</a> struck me as a great idea. If I had half a clue about video games, Iâ€™d trade there.</strong></p>
<p>Ideas for socially valuable quality markets? Are you assuming that <a href="http://www.thesimexchange.com/blogpost.php?post_id=402">improving video game industry forecasts</a> is not socially valuable? I would suggest, in addition to improving video game industry forecasts, maybe Chinese toy manufacturing quality markets would be useful. Maybe U.S. toy executives would like to set up product recall prediction markets.</p>
<p>Actually,<strong> product recall markets may be useful</strong>, though since they involve very low probability events, some thought would have to be put into the design to make them interesting and potentially rewarding to traders.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>What&#8217;s your definition of a prediction market (betting market)? Of a prediction exchange (betting exchange)?</em></li>
</ul>
<p>I donâ€™t have a good answer here. What makes a good definition depends on the purpose you have at hand.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>What&#8217;s the best academic paper you&#8217;ve ever read on prediction markets? What&#8217;s the most didactic paper on prediction markets you&#8217;ve ever read?</em></li>
</ul>
<p>I like both Hansonâ€™s â€œ<a href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/combobet.pdf">Combinatorial Information Market Design</a>â€ and the Rhode and Strumpf work on <a href="http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/BettingPaper_final(JEP_Resubmit).pdf">historical markets</a> and <a href="http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/ManipHIT_Jan2007.pdf">manipulation</a>. But like a good definition, a good academic paper depends on the purpose you have at hand. â€œBestâ€ to me depends on what issues Iâ€™m thinking about at the moment.</p>
<p>On the other hand, maybe someone like <a href="http://gtziralis.googlepages.com/home">George Tziralis</a> who has made an effort to do <a href="http://gtziralis.googlepages.com/PredictionMarkets_AnExtendedLiteratureReview_TziralisTatsiopoulos.pdf">a literature review</a> could provide an answer.  Iâ€™ve read too narrowly.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>Do you really think that the economists have made the case that (non-sports) prediction markets are socially valuable? Don&#8217;t you think that more comparisons are needed, especially in specific instances where the other tools could be dysfunctional? [WARNING: Biased question that takes the view that we need more special prediction markets, e.g., on project management or on some areas of demand forecasting, that can show a macro difference with the predictions from the other tools.]</em></li>
</ul>
<p>I certainly <em>am</em> of the view that more comparisons are needed.</p>
<p>And by the way, did I mention that I work for an economic consulting firm? You can send us money and we will do analysis. So far we specialize in energy markets, but, you know, make me an offer.  <img src='http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>If you were at the helm of Midas Oracle (thank God and all the Saints of Christianity, you&#8217;re not), what would you do to improve the coverage on prediction markets?</em></li>
</ul>
<p>I think readers would benefit from a somewhat more postings offering substantive engagement with issues and somewhat fewer postings that lack prediction market substance.  (When I say &#8220;readers would benefit&#8221;, what I mean is &#8220;I want.&#8221;) Not every post needs to be <a href="http://blog.commerce.net/?p=261">a Chris Hibbert explainer</a>, but judging from the comments on <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/10/market-makers-for-multi-outcome-markets/">Hibbertâ€™s most recent posting</a> there is an audience ready for high level substance.</p>
<p>Iâ€™d also like to see <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/16/intel-business-case-internal-prediction-markets-do-work/">more practical reports</a>. We need to entice users of internal corporate prediction markets (and other approaches to aggregating information) to tell us their stories. For how many more years will we have to link to <a href="http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html">Bo Cowgillâ€™s September 2005 blog post</a>?</p>
<p>What works, what doesnâ€™t, what is hard to get right, what problems are people having, and so on. Of course, people in the business of selling solutions generally donâ€™t want to admit to having problems. Still, if we are going to push the frontier of knowledge forward, weâ€™ve got to know where the frontier is.</p>
<ul>
<li>QUESTION: <em>Do you have a visionary thing to say about prediction markets? Some kind of formal pronouncement we will re-read here in two or three years to see whether it has stood the test of time (and, hence, whether you&#8217;re a real thinker who matters, like Robin Hanson).</em></li>
</ul>
<p>I think it is likely that within three years <strong><a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=984584">the signers of the Hahn-Tetlock</a> letter will get what theyâ€™ve asked for</strong>. There is <a href="http://www.aei-brookings.org/policy/page.php?id=289">still political and bureaucratic work to be done</a> to get it accomplished, but I think that effort will succeed. While personally Iâ€™d favor a much bolder proposal, <a href="http://pancrit.blogspot.com/2007/05/safe-harbor-for-prediction-markets.html">it will be hard enough</a> for American politicians to sign on to something like Hahn-Tetlock.</p>
<p>By the way, this is another reason ordinary companies doing ordinary business things like forecasting sales should report publicly on their experiences.  <strong>Prediction markets need demystification.</strong></p>
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		<title>BetFair vs. TradeSports-InTrade</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/24/betfair-vs-tradesports-intrade/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/24/betfair-vs-tradesports-intrade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Apr 2007 20:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.betfair.com]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/24/betfair-vs-tradesports-intrade/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;Anonymous&#8221; to Patri Friedman (thanks to Jason Ruspini for the link): Have you tried Betfair? www.betfair.com . Chris Masse over at Midas Oracle www.midasoracle.com &#8212; the main prediction markets blog &#8212; tends to support them over InTrade. The interface is &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/24/betfair-vs-tradesports-intrade/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://patrissimo.livejournal.com/514312.html?thread=4249608#t4249608" title="Betfair">&#8220;<strong>Anonymous</strong>&#8221; to Patri Friedman</a> (thanks to <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/author/jason-ruspini/" title="Jason Ruspini - Post Archives at Midas Oracle">Jason Ruspini</a> for the link):</p>
<blockquote><p>Have you tried Betfair? <a href="http://www.betfair.com/" title="BetFair - (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.)">www.betfair.com </a>. Chris Masse over at Midas Oracle <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/" title="Group Blog on Event Derivatives (Event Futures), Prediction Markets (Betting Markets) and Prediction Exchanges (Betting Exchanges)">www.midasoracle.com</a> &#8212; the main prediction markets blog &#8212; tends to support them over <a href="http://www.intrade.com/v2/" title="InTrade">InTrade</a>. The interface is not as nice as InTrade&#8217;s though (they give punter odds rather than decimal probability prices).</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>#1. BetFair won&#8217;t let any U.S. resident opens an account</strong>, because BetFair has decided to abide by US laws. (See: &#8220;<a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/" title="BetFair">We wish to reiterate our well documented and long-standing policy of not accepting US customers, funds, or bets.</a>&#8220;) That said, some US residents have managed to open BetFair accounts via the complicity of British friends. As you all know, TradeSports-Intrade was created and became successful on two premises: number one, BetFair won&#8217;t enter the US market until it is legal, and, number two, US-based prediction exchanges (betting exchanges, event futures exchanges other than hedging-oriented) are not legally allowed to perform operations. Thus, the situation we have today: TradeSports-Intrade is the <em>de facto</em> monopoly in the US market of unregulated event derivatives. (<a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/21/americans-need-to-embrace-betting-exchanges-as-the-preferred-way-to-bet/" title="Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet.">MatchBook is trying to pierce with a marketing strategy <em>a la</em> TradeBetX</a>. And, of course, online sportsbooks are TradeSports-Intrade&#8217;s competitors.)</p>
<p><strong>#2.</strong> There are many real-money prediction exchanges (betting exchange, event futures exchanges). To trade or to get probabilities, <strong>you should select the one that has the most volume</strong> on the (regulated or unregulated) event derivative you&#8217;re interested in. For US politics, it&#8217;s TradeSports-<a href="http://www.intrade.com/v2/" title="InTrade">InTrade</a>. For British and Irish politics, it&#8217;s <a href="http://www.betfair.com/" title="BetFair - (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.)">BetFair</a>.</p>
<p><strong>#3.</strong> <a href="http://www.betfair.com/" title="BetFair - (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.)">BetFair</a> is indeed a formidable operator &#8212;big, powerful, ethical, with a fantastic technical team, and a robust and sophisticated software. Very long term, <a href="http://www.betfair.com/" title="BetFair - (Hammersmith, London, England, United Kingdom, E.U.)">BetFair</a> is going to take over Trade-Sports-InTrade in the US.</p>
<p>#4. <strong>The prices (which the economists allow us to interpret as probabilities, when these prices come from prediction exchanges, as opposed to bookmakers) can be expressed in four ways: 0&#8211;100, American, fractional or decimal.</strong> It&#8217;s all equivalent. For instance, you take the number &#8220;1&#8243;, you divide it by the BetFair&#8217;s &#8220;last price matched&#8221; expressed as&#8221;decimal odds&#8221;, you multiply it by &#8220;100&#8243;, and you get your 0&#8211;100 price/probability.</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=5864458&amp;ex=1&amp;origin=MRL" title="BetFair">BetFair: Republican Nicolas Sarkozy as next French President</a></p>
<p>Total matched on this event: $728,806<br />
Betting summary &#8211; Volume: $463,083<br />
<strong>Last price matched: 1.32 ["1" divided by "1.32" and multiplied by "100" = 75.8%]</strong></p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://help.betfair.com/contents/itemId/i65767328/index.en.html" title="What are Decimal Odds?">BetFair explainer on decimal odds</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>What are Decimal Odds?<br />
All prices quoted on Betfair are &#8216;Decimal&#8217; Odds. Decimal Odds differ from the Odds traditionally quoted in the UK in that they include your stake as part of your total return. If you place a bet of Â£10 at Decimal Odds of 4.0 and win, then your total return (including stake) is Â£40. In the UK this would be quoted as 3/1, returning to you winnings of Â£30 plus your original stake of Â£10.<br />
Decimal Odds are simpler to use than Traditional Odds, and are the most common form of Odds quoted in countries outside the UK. In addition, for the mathematically minded, Decimal Odds relate more closely to probability: in a race with four equally-matched horses, the probability of each horse winning is 25%. Each horse will have Traditional Odds of 3/1 or Decimal Odds of 4.0. Hence, the probability of an outcome equals 1 divided by its Decimal Odds (1 / 4.0 = 25%).<br />
Decimal Odds also offer many more prices â€“ Betfair offer every price between 1.01 and 2.0 to two decimal places. With no margins to protect, our customers deserve to see every price available.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>#5.</strong> Any software for prediction markets (and betting exchanges) should be able to <strong>convert the prices in these four different formats</strong> &#8212;<a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/22/globalization-internationalization-localization-3/" title="Globalization = Internationalization + Localization">on top of being translated in many foreign languages</a>.</p>
<p><strong>#6.</strong> British consultant wannabe Jed Christiansen, <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/" title="Un petit peu dâ€™humour dans ce monde de brutes">freshly minted &#8220;from the London School of Economics&#8221;</a>, has a new blog post out (he blogs on a monthly basis) on <a href="http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2007/04/23/thinking-about-real-money-trading/" title="Thinking about real-money trading">BetFair versus TradeSports-InTrade</a> (BetFair being &#8220;betting&#8221;, and InTrade-TradeSports being &#8220;financial&#8221;), which is the most ridiculous statement I have ever read since Paris Hilton declared to the world that <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/05/03/features/hilt.php" title="Heiress. Actress. Singer. Mogul.">she was going to morph herself into a &#8220;savvy business titan&#8221;</a>.</p>
<p>- Jed Christiansen tries to divine the &#8220;<em>psychological</em> approach&#8221; of BetFair and TradeSports-InTrade. <em>Oh, mon Dieu!</em>&#8230; Jed Christiansen&#8217;s thinking is rotten from the start. Just like <a href="http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070330185802AAFdE0v" title="Yahoo! Answers on photography">the beauty is in the eye of the beholder</a>, the marketing &#8220;approach&#8221; is conditional to its adoption by the customers/consumers. Any popular products (here, event derivatives, prediction markets) <em>belong</em> to its customers/consumers (here, the traders and the info consumers), and then the &#8220;approach&#8221; is to listen to the improvement they suggest to the service. Any incremental innovation of your prediction market software is just the anticipation of future traders&#8217; needs. <strong>Event derivative traders on both sides of the Atlantic have <em>the same needs</em>.</strong> The traders are in the driver&#8217;s seat. If they are satisfied, they patronize and come <em>en masse</em> (no pun intended), and if they are not, they leave. Traders don&#8217;t give the first fig about the &#8220;psychological approach&#8221; of the prediction exchanges. You can&#8217;t spin the British and Irish traders one way, and the American and Canadian traders another way. <strong>Trader&#8217;s needs are imperial and universal. It&#8217;s the traders who shape the prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) <em>their way</em>. </strong></p>
<p>- <strong>Jed Christiansen makes a big fuss out of tiny differences between BetFair and TradeSports-InTrade.</strong> For instance, BetFair outputs prices as &#8220;decimal odds&#8221;, and, of course, the Grand Inquisitor views it as a sign from God that BetFair is &#8220;betting&#8221;. But that&#8217;s bullshit, as the readers of Midas Oracle all know. With a simple computation, you can transform the &#8220;decimal odds&#8221; into 0&#8211;100 prices. (You take the number &#8220;1&#8243;, you divide it by the BetFair&#8217;s &#8220;last price matched&#8221; expressed as&#8221;decimal odds&#8221;, you multiply it by &#8220;100&#8243;, and you get your 0&#8211;100 price/probability.)</p>
<p>- BetFair uses the words &#8220;back&#8221; and &#8220;lay&#8221; (instead of &#8220;bid&#8221; and &#8220;ask&#8221;) and the Grand Inquisitor views it as <em>yet</em> another sign from God that BetFair is &#8220;betting&#8221; (as opposed to &#8220;financial&#8221;).</p>
<p>- Jed Christiansen states that the &#8220;psychological approach&#8221; of BetFair (being &#8220;betting&#8221;) is dictated by the fact that its competitors are the British bookies (and the online bookmakers, I will add). The main competitors of InTrade-TradeSports are the US illegal bookmakers and the offshore sportsbooks. <strong>BetFair and InTrade-TradeSports both have the same kind of competitors, the fixed-odds bookmakers. </strong>(Being illegal in America, InTrade-TradeSports can&#8217;t market to the sophisticated US horse race bettors.)</p>
<p>Jed Christiansen has opted for religion over theory. He religiously believes that BetFair is &#8220;betting&#8221; and InTrade-TradeSports is &#8220;financial&#8221;, and he will take any insignificant piece of evidence to make his case.</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p><em>External Link</em>: <a href="http://www.startup-review.com/blog/betfair-case-study-target-a-niche-and-expand.php" title="Betfair Case Study: Target a niche and expand">Nisan Gabbay on BetFair</a></p>
<p><em>Previous</em>: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/01/betfair-case-study-betting-exchange-prediction-markets/" title="Betfair on the other hand was built like a stock market exchange, where odds functioned as the share prices.">BetFair Case Study &#8211; Betting Exchange &#8211; Prediction Markets</a></p>
<blockquote><p>[...] <strong>Betfair</strong> on the other hand was built <strong>like a stock market exchange</strong>, where odds functioned as the share prices. [...]</p></blockquote>
<p>UPDATE: Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock comments&#8230;</p>
<blockquote><p>I think Jed Christiansen is correct to a large degree. Betfair speaks the punterâ€™s (gamblerâ€™s) language. TradeSports speaks Wall Streetâ€™s language. I have a bookie friend who upon first look at TradeSports couldnâ€™t make heads or tails of it. Chris is right in that both betfair and TradeSports perform the same service. However their target audience, at least initially, is different.</p></blockquote>
<p>NEXT: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/27/user-interface-target-audience-betfair-tradesports-intrade-matchbook-etc/" title="BetFair and TradeSports-InTrade do perform the same service.">User Interface &amp; Target Audience: BetFair, TradeSports-InTrade, MatchBook, etc.</a></p>
<p>UPDATE: Jed Christiansen&#8230;</p>
<blockquote><p>That was the point I was trying to make. In the end, both types of sites accomplish the exact same thing; an event futures market. But I was pointing out the differences in how the sites work that come from their positioning in the marketplace.</p>
<p>In my perfect world, a trader could choose how they interacted with an exchange. They could choose a basic interaction, or a user interface with lots of options. They could choose to see contracts in decimal odds or percentages, etc. Itâ€™s not as easy as it sounds, which is why we probably havenâ€™t seen it yet.</p></blockquote>
<p>UPDATE: David Stalcup&#8230;</p>
<blockquote><p>In fact you can see odds listed decimal, 0â€“100 prices or moneyline format (-110) at TradesSorts. You just make that choice at TradeBetX with your TradeSports login info. You have the option of viewing odds in any format. TradeBetX/TradeSports are the same company, just different branding and options at TradeBetX.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Recent enhancements to the BetFair site&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/03/recent-enhancements-to-the-betfair-site/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/03/recent-enhancements-to-the-betfair-site/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jan 2007 22:29:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Exchanges & Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis software]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BetFair webmaster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[horse racing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Internet usability rules]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[order-entry software]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.betfair.com]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/03/recent-enhancements-to-the-betfair-site/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[- The BetFair Promo site guides you visually thru the latest site changes. - And this is some blablating about the changes. &#8212; OK, I got it now. - The main site www.betfair.com is for orientation, only. - The speculators &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/03/recent-enhancements-to-the-betfair-site/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>- <a href="http://www.betfairpromo.com/upgrade/homepage.html" title="BetFair Promo">The BetFair Promo site guides you visually thru the latest site changes</a>.</p>
<p>- <a href="http://www.betfairpromo.com/upgrade/" title="BetFair Promo">And this is some blablating about the changes</a>.</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>OK, I got it now.</p>
<p>- The main site <a href="http://www.betfair.com/" title="BetFair">www.betfair.com</a> is for orientation, only.</p>
<p>- The speculators will go directly to <a href="http://sports.betfair.com/" title="BetFair">sports.betfair.com</a>. <strong>Naming this sub-website &#8220;sports&#8221; is the dumbest idea since <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Coke" title="Wikipedia">the New Coke</a>.</strong> When I&#8217;m on the US presidential election prediction market (Winning Party), it has <em>nothing to do</em> with &#8220;sports&#8221;. A better idea would have been to name it &#8220;markets&#8221;, or else.</p>
<p>- The forum goes by <a href="http://forum.betfair.com/" title="BetFair">forum.betfair.com</a>. <strong>There are no permanent URLs available anymore for individual forum entries.</strong> I don&#8217;t know what the BetFair webmaster was thinking of &#8212;it breaks all Internet usability rules.</p>
<p>- Everything else fits into the <a href="http://extras.betfair.com/" title="BetFair">extras.betfair.com</a> &#8212;and God knows that&#8217;s a lot. (Fuck, my FireFox is instructed to open any new page in a new tab, as opposed to a new window, and when I click on the links on the &#8220;extras&#8221; page, FireFox opens a new window. NO, NO, NO.)</p>
<p>- Psstt&#8230; If you have two minutes, take a look at the <a href="http://bat.betfair.com/" title="BetFair">BetFair Advantage Tool</a>. Sounds like it is a horse racing prediction markets analysis software &#8212;no idea whether it&#8217;s an order-entry software, too (<a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2006/12/30/order-entry-and-analysis-software-for-real-money-and-play-money-prediction-markets/" title="Order-entry and analysis software for real-money and play-money prediction markets">like 1st Tick and Saikou Trader</a>).</p>
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