Tag Archives: World Cup

The BetFair Starting Price is such a phenomenal success that their MSR-like system melted down under pressure last Saturday, April 5th, 2008, for the British equivalent of the Kentucky Derby —the Grand National at Liverpool.

- BetFair: Settlement of Grand National win market Betfair Customer Services 05 Apr 18:35 The reconciliation of the Betfair SP for the Grand National win market resulted in prices which we believe were significantly unfair for backers of some horses, … Continue reading

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The Journal Of Prediction Markets – January 2008

The Journal Of Prediction Markets: Steven Levitt, author of Freakonomics, makes important contribution to the third issue: Testing the efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup by Steven Levitt with co author Richard Gil heads the list of interesting … Continue reading

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The Journal of Prediction Markets

The Journal of Prediction Markets – Volume 1, Number 3, December 2007 Adapting Least-Square Support Vector Regression Models to Forecast the Outcome of Horseraces Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems – An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations Does … Continue reading

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Contrary to Steve Levitt, Justin Wolfers knows where to find good soccer trading data.

The Wall Street Journal, via Market Power: Messrs. Levitt and Gil found that the odds of a team winning jumped immediately after it scored a goal. But adjusting for other factors, those odds kept climbing for 10 to 15 minutes … Continue reading

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What was the music played at the 2007 World Cup of Rugby?

If you watched TV during the 2007 Rugby World Cup (hosted by France and won by South Africa), you surely noticed a symphonic music played at the beginning and at the end of each game. Composer: Jean-Michel Jarre (French); He … Continue reading

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2007 WORLD CUP OF RUGBY: BetFair, Betdaq, TradeSports and NewsFutures all predict that South Africa will pulverize England into fine particles.

BetFair: 2007 World Cup of Rugby South Africa (“the Springboks”) will win: It should be said that the prediction markets got it wrong betting on New Zealand and then on France, in previous rounds. — The other prediction exchanges (betting … Continue reading

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Academics to discuss prediction market experience

According to the preliminary schedule of the 2008 American Economic Association annual meetings, some leading prediction market scholars will be gathering to discuss empirical data from prediction markets. The meetings will be held in New Orleans in early January [2008]. … Continue reading

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$18,441,883 of bets matched by BetFair for the winner of the 2007 World Cup of Rugby

Wow. That’s a lot. BetFair: 2007 World Cup of Rugby South Africa will win (against England, who did beat France, who did beat New Zealand), BetFair says. On this South Africa chart, spot the volume, lately. Seems like the English … Continue reading

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They perform their haka to intimidate you? Look at them straight in the eyes and stand up to them.

International Herald Tribune: Standing up to All Blacks haka was France’s platform for World Cup upset CARDIFF, Wales: Standing eyeball to eyeball with the All Blacks during the haka set the tone for France’s memorable upset Rugby World Cup victory. … Continue reading

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FRANCE’S TEAM EJECTS NEW ZEALAND’S ALL BLACKS OUT OF THE 2007 WORLD CUP OF RUGBY.

The picture above (from the archives) represents the New Zealand’s team performing their “haka” before an international match. Here are the static BetFair charts, just after the France vs. New Zealand game. (TradeSports has little liquidity on Rugby Union events.) … Continue reading

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