By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

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2008 US Elections

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InTrade

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2008 US Electoral College

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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.

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Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

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- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage.

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

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BetFair

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Winning Party

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Next US President

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Iowa Electronic Markets

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

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Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

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Canadian Elections

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InTrade

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Winner of Next Canadian Federal Election – Political Party

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Conservatives

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Liberal

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BetFair

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2008 Federal Election

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Most Seats

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Overall Majority

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UK Elections

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BetFair

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Next General Election – Most Seats

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Next UK Prime Minister

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InTrade

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Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

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UK Conservatives

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UK Labour

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The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

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Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

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For more on probabilistic predictions, go to our “Predictions” page, or visit our webpage listing all the main prediction exchanges.

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ElectoralMarkets.com

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Via Read & Write Web

2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls)

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UPDATE: Hal Finney

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See our PREDICTIONS page for more predictive data…

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Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).

By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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#2. Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

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InTrade

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2008 US Electoral College

2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland = electoralmarkets.com

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- This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

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- This is a static chart, which is not up to date. Right-click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the updated version.

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade. The individual charts above, however, are from InTrade v2. I might later transition to the charts from either InTrade .COM or InTrade .NET.

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BetFair

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Winning Party

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Next US President

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Iowa Electronic Markets

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

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- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

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Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Electoral-Vote.com

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For more on probabilistic predictions, go to our “Predictions” page, or visit our webpage listing all the main prediction exchanges.

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Oregon’s Democratic Primary

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InTrade

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BetFair

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Kentucky’s Democratic Primary

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InTrade

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BetFair

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NewsFutures

Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

© NewsFutures

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First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

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Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate):

A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to be lost on gravity-free planet Clinton, but privately they know the end is near.

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There’s a quasi consensus among the political pundits to say that Hillary Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee in November 2008.

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Tim Russert:

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That was Wednesday night. I have just watched NBC Nightly News this Thursday, and the same Tim Russert appeared with 2 white boards full of calculations, which all pointed to Hillary Clinton being toasted.

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My general thoughts about the place of the political prediction markets in this primary election season:

1. The weight of the political prediction markets in the US political scenery is close to epsilon. I have been monitoring Memeorandum (the Web’s best political news and opinion aggregator), and it has never featured one piece of political prediction market journalism —not only that, but none of the popular popular pieces, featured by Memeorandum, has ever mentioned the political prediction markets and their probabilities. The people who breathe politics on a daily basis (the experts and the bloggers) don’t give the first fig about the prediction markets. They couldn’t care less.
2. The prediction market luminaries who predicted that the prediction markets were to become a tool used in political campaigns were dead wrong. I have never read that campaign staffers use actively the political prediction markets. Campaigns use private polls, only.
3. Like in 2004 (when Howard Dean was crowned, early on), the prediction markets, at the start of the primary season, were incapable of foreseeing who would be each party’s nominee, ultimately —Barack Obama and John McCain both came out of the blue. But the polls and the political experts didn’t see them, too.
4. Nothing surprising in that. While the idiots emphasize the supposed magical power of the prediction markets (using adjectives such as “fascinating” or “intriguing” when writing about them), the well informed people know for a fact that they simply aggregate information from the primary, advanced indicators and the opinions expressed by the political experts. Nothing more than that. The prediction markets are incapable of foretelling upsets, by essence.
5. The last weeks were particularly interesting, in that regard, because the Obama-vs-Clinton polls have been of no interest —only the views of the political experts who could count in terms of delegates and super-delegates were of interest. The political prediction markets on the Democratic side, these last weeks, have been a reflection of the pundits’ calculations.
6. Outside of our blog, the only person who has aimed at practicing prediction market journalism is Justin Wolfers. He has understood the concept.
7. I would have my own concept of prediction market journalism, and I don’t agree with the way he executes, but that’s a detail. The main thing is that he has gotten the concept. That’s what is important, and that’s what makes all the difference between Justin Wolfers and the HubDub bloggers (for instance). The concept. The concept. The concept. The idea is to center the narrative around the inputs given by the relevant prediction market(s) —not just gluing artificially news bits and a prediction market chart (or a link to a prediction market).
8. InTrade, BetFair and NewsFutures are, in my view, the 3 prediction exchanges that matter for prediction market journalism —as of now.

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Now, the charts of the expired prediction markets —starting with Pennsylvania (of 2 weeks ago):

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Yesterday’s North Carolina:

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Yesterday’s Indiana:

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Sources: InTrade & BetFair

(Go there for the remaining primaries and caucuses. I don’t put them on, here, because they don’t matter anymore.)

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Now, the charts of the prediction markets, going forward:

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

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Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted.

So, if you live in Pennsylvania, can you do me a favor? Will you please cast my vote — and yours — on Tuesday for Senator Barack Obama?

[O]ver the past two months, the actions and words of Hillary Clinton have gone from being merely disappointing to downright disgusting. I guess the debate last week was the final straw. I’ve watched Senator Clinton and her husband play this game of appealing to the worst side of white people, but last Wednesday, when she hurled the name “Farrakhan” out of nowhere, well that’s when the silly season came to an early end for me. She said the “F” word to scare white people, pure and simple. Of course, Obama has no connection to Farrakhan. But, according to Senator Clinton, Obama’s pastor does — AND the “church bulletin” once included a Los Angeles Times op-ed from some guy with Hamas! No, not the church bulletin!

This sleazy attempt to smear Obama was brilliantly explained the following night by Stephen Colbert. He pointed out that if Obama is supported by Ted Kennedy, who is Catholic, and the Catholic Church is led by a Pope who was in the Hitler Youth, that can mean only one thing: OBAMA LOVES HITLER! [...]

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See Memeorandum for more on the PA election.

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Democratic Primary – Pennsylvania

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InTrade stopped outputting compound charts for primaries, alas.

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Hillary Clinton:

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Barack Obama:

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Obama won’t win the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

© NewsFutures

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

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Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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CNBC

HubDub blog

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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So Clinton lives to run for another seven weeks. But if you believe in the power of numbers, the candidate of inevitability is Barack Obama.

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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BetFair

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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

Noam Scheiber:

1.) Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas.
2.) Hillary wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas.
3.) Obama wins both Ohio and Texas.

I put in bold the most likely scenario, according to InTrade’s prediction markets.

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The Democrats

Ohio

Texas

Vermont

Rhode Island

The Republicans

Ohio

Texas

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Ohio

Texas

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

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2008 Democratic Nominee

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2008 Republican Nominee

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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BetFair

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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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NewsFutures

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Presidential Prediction Markets

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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Democratic Nominee

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Hillary Clinton

© NewsFutures

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Barack Obama

© NewsFutures

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Republican Nominee

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John McCain

© NewsFutures

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Sources: InTrade & BetFair & NewsFutures & Bet2Give

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

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- CNN US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard

- Political Base – Polls

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3 great prediction market blogs:

- Caveat Bettor

- Alpha Thesis

- Political Betting (U.K.) — right-click on the image below, and open the link in another browser tab…

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

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2008 Democratic Nominee

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2008 Republican Nominee

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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BetFair

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Next US President

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Winning Party

-

Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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Democratic Nominee

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Hillary Clinton

© NewsFutures

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Barack Obama

© NewsFutures

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. These event derivative traders feed on the primary indicators —i.e., the primary sources of information. (Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…) Hence, prediction markets are meta forecasting tools.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 60 times out of 100, the favored outcome will occur; and 40 times out of 100, the unfavored outcome will occur.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

-

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

-

Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

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-

2008 US Elections

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-

InTrade

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2008 US Electoral College

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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.]

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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.]

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Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

-

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage.

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

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BetFair

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Winning Party

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Next US President

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Iowa Electronic Markets

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

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Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

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Canadian Elections

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InTrade

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Winner of Next Canadian Federal Election – Political Party

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Conservatives

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Liberal

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BetFair

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2008 Federal Election

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Most Seats

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Overall Majority

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UK Elections

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BetFair

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Next General Election – Most Seats

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Next UK Prime Minister

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InTrade

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Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

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UK Conservatives

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UK Labour

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The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

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Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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More Charts