Tag Archives: Winning Party

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

Posted on July 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Americans, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral college markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, electoral markets, electoral predictions, electoral vote, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, market data, objective probabilistic predictions, Political Party, Politics, predicted probabilities, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Predictions, President, Prime Minister, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen | 1 Comment

2008 US Electoral Map Prediction

Posted on June 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College ElectoralMarkets.com – - Via Read & Write Web 2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls) – UPDATE: Hal Finney – See our PREDICTIONS … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 Electoral Map, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral map, electoral markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hal Finney, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, map, Political Party, polls, prediction markets, President, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, US electoral college, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen | Leave a comment

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

Posted on May 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Oregon’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – Kentucky’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – NewsFutures Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention. Â© NewsFutures – First look at individual states for … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, democrats, Florida, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Kentucky, meta forecasting tools, Montana, NewsFutures, Oregon, Politics, Portland, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Waterfront Park, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 2 Comments

Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.

Posted on May 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate): A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, democrats, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, HubDub, Indiana, InTrade, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Lawrence O'Donnell, leftist journalist, meta forecasting tools, NBC, NBC Nightly News, NewsFutures, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Politics, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, senior campaign official, Tim Russert, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Posted on April 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted. So, if you live in … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 Pennsylvania primary, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Catholic Church, Democratic, Democratic candidate, democrats, Hamas, Hillary Clinton, HubDub, InTrade, Los Angeles Times, meta forecasting tools, Michael Moore, Michigan, NewsFutures, Pennsylvania, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Stephen Colbert, Ted Kennedy, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Given the remaining contests –many with electorates favorable to Obama– Obama’s existing hundred-plus delegate lead, and the rules by which Democrats apportion delegates, it is almost a political and mathematical certainty that Obama will have an elected delegate lead at the end of the process, barring dramatic, unforeseen circumstances.

Posted on March 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

So Clinton lives to run for another seven weeks. But if you believe in the power of numbers, the candidate of inevitability is Barack Obama. – - Explainer On Prediction Markets – Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, delegate, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, meta forecasting tools, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, So Clinton, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Winning Party | 4 Comments

Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama

Posted on March 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Noam Scheiber: 1.) Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas. 2.) Hillary wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas. 3.) Obama wins both Ohio and Texas. I put in bold the most likely scenario, according to InTrade’s prediction markets. – The Democrats … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, CNN US, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Noam Scheiber, Ohio, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Rhode Island, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Senate, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Vermont, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Counting the Democratic delegates, and courting the Democratic super-delegates (a kind of aristocracy within the so-called Democratic party).

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | Leave a comment

BARACK OBAMA = NEXT US PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Posted on February 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

LIKE HIM OR NOT, THIS IS THE 44th US PRESIDENT, ACCORDING TO THE PREDICTION MARKETS. GET USED TO IT. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, CNN, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Prime Minister, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

The 2008 US presidential election as seen thru the prism of the BetFair prediction markets

Posted on February 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

— Next US President — Winning Party — Female President? — Democratic Candidate — Republican Candidate — Source: BetFair Politics Zone — More Charts

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, GOP, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, republicans, Super Tuesday, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Winning Party | Leave a comment