Tag Archives: Winning Party
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College
ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).
By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.
-
-
#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as [...]
2008 US Electoral Map Prediction
-
US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College
ElectoralMarkets.com
-
-
Via Read & Write Web
2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls)
-
UPDATE: Hal Finney
-
See our PREDICTIONS page for more predictive data…
-
Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).
By Lance Fortnow, David [...]
75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.
-
Oregon’s Democratic Primary
-
InTrade
-
BetFair
-
Kentucky’s Democratic Primary
-
InTrade
-
BetFair
-
NewsFutures
Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.
© NewsFutures
-
First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections
-
2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual
-
2008 US Presidential Elections
Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade
-
Next US President
-
Winning Party
-
Female President?
-
Democratic Candidate
-
Republican Candidate
-
Source: [...]
Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.
-
Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate):
A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to be lost on gravity-free planet Clinton, but privately they know the end is near.
-
There’s a quasi consensus [...]
Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.
I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted.
So, if you live in Pennsylvania, can you do me a favor? Will you please cast my vote — and yours [...]
Given the remaining contests –many with electorates favorable to Obama– Obama’s existing hundred-plus delegate lead, and the rules by which Democrats apportion delegates, it is almost a political and mathematical certainty that Obama will have an elected delegate lead at the end of the process, barring dramatic, unforeseen circumstances.
So Clinton lives to run for another seven weeks. But if you believe in the power of numbers, the candidate of inevitability is Barack Obama.
-
-
Explainer On Prediction Markets
-
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction [...]
Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama
-
Noam Scheiber:
1.) Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas.
2.) Hillary wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas.
3.) Obama wins both Ohio and Texas.
I put in bold the most likely scenario, according to InTrade’s prediction markets.
-
The Democrats
Ohio
Texas
Vermont
Rhode Island
The Republicans
Ohio
Texas
-
Ohio
Texas
-
Explainer On Prediction Markets
-
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on [...]
Counting the Democratic delegates, and courting the Democratic super-delegates (a kind of aristocracy within the so-called Democratic party).
-
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…
A prediction market [...]
BARACK OBAMA = NEXT US PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
LIKE HIM OR NOT, THIS IS THE 44th US PRESIDENT, ACCORDING TO THE PREDICTION MARKETS. GET USED TO IT.
-
-
#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
-
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. These event derivative traders feed [...]
The 2008 US presidential election as seen thru the prism of the BetFair prediction markets
—
Next US President
—
Winning Party
—
Female President?
—
Democratic Candidate
—
Republican Candidate
—
Source: BetFair Politics Zone
—
More Charts
Recent Comments