Tag Archives: Will Be Democratic

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

Posted on July 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Americans, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral college markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, electoral markets, electoral predictions, electoral vote, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, market data, objective probabilistic predictions, Political Party, Politics, predicted probabilities, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Predictions, President, Prime Minister, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen | 1 Comment

2008 US Electoral Map Prediction

Posted on June 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College ElectoralMarkets.com – - Via Read & Write Web 2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls) – UPDATE: Hal Finney – See our PREDICTIONS … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 Electoral Map, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral map, electoral markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hal Finney, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, map, Political Party, polls, prediction markets, President, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, US electoral college, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen | Leave a comment

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

Posted on May 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Oregon’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – Kentucky’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – NewsFutures Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention. Â© NewsFutures – First look at individual states for … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, democrats, Florida, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Kentucky, meta forecasting tools, Montana, NewsFutures, Oregon, Politics, Portland, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Waterfront Park, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 2 Comments

Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.

Posted on May 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate): A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, democrats, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, HubDub, Indiana, InTrade, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Lawrence O'Donnell, leftist journalist, meta forecasting tools, NBC, NBC Nightly News, NewsFutures, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Politics, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, senior campaign official, Tim Russert, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Posted on April 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted. So, if you live in … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 Pennsylvania primary, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Catholic Church, Democratic, Democratic candidate, democrats, Hamas, Hillary Clinton, HubDub, InTrade, Los Angeles Times, meta forecasting tools, Michael Moore, Michigan, NewsFutures, Pennsylvania, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Stephen Colbert, Ted Kennedy, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama

Posted on March 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Noam Scheiber: 1.) Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas. 2.) Hillary wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas. 3.) Obama wins both Ohio and Texas. I put in bold the most likely scenario, according to InTrade’s prediction markets. – The Democrats … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, CNN US, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Noam Scheiber, Ohio, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Rhode Island, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Senate, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Vermont, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment

Counting the Democratic delegates, and courting the Democratic super-delegates (a kind of aristocracy within the so-called Democratic party).

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | Leave a comment

BARACK OBAMA = NEXT US PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Posted on February 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

LIKE HIM OR NOT, THIS IS THE 44th US PRESIDENT, ACCORDING TO THE PREDICTION MARKETS. GET USED TO IT. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, CNN, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Political Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, Prime Minister, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

Still unconvinced by prediction market journalist Justin Wolfers

Posted on January 31, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Justin Wolfers series in the Wall Street Journal is plagued with rotten links to the WSJ’s bot-driven, play-money prediction sub-exchange (which is secretly programed to reflect InTrade’s real-money prices). — The latest installment (which does not featured a single … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, ABC, content management system, Democratic candidate, Eric Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzwewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Nigel Eccles, Pepsi, Politics, prediction market journalism, prediction market journalist, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Super Tuesday, technophobic editor, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Wall Street Journal, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, WSJ Political Market | Leave a comment

A Democratic sweep in Washington DC, in November 2008, will likely lead to the legalization of the real-money prediction markets.

Posted on January 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Gambling 911: With the Nevada Caucuses taking place this Saturday, The Las Vegas Sun reports that Democrat Hillary Clinton supports a study to determine if Internet gambling can be fairly regulated so that individuals can safely participate in it and … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Regulations | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US political elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, Betting, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gambling, Hillary Clinton, Internet betting, Internet gambling, Internet Gambling Prohibition and Enforcement Act, InTrade, NewsFutures, online betting, online gambling, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, The Las Vegas Sun, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Washington D.C., Will Be Democratic, Winning Party | 1 Comment