Tag Archives: western Europe

Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

Posted on January 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire? …asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar. So, I’ve been watching the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Alex Kirtland, Barack Obama, Barak Obama, BetFair, business professor, Chris Masse, Dan Gross, Daniel Gross, Donald Luskin, economist, Emile Servan-Scheiber, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, failure, fiasco, forecasting tool of convenience, Forrest Nelson, France, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, Justin Wolfers, Markos Moulitsas, Michael Giberson, New Hampshire, NewsFutures, Niall O'Connor, Pennsylvania, Politics, polls, prediction markets, pundits, Robin Hanson, success, The Netherlands, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, ultimate forecasting tool, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, western Europe | 3 Comments

Justin Wolfers dreams of a prediction market land, where exchange odds are cited but not the polls.

Posted on November 15, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Knowledge @ Wharton (on polls): The Power of Prediction Markets The rapidly changing landscape of responders and related technology factors are two reasons why Justin Wolfers, Wharton professor of business and public policy, believes in the power of prediction, or … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Prediction Journalism | Tagged CEO, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Forrest Nelson, France, Justin Wolfers, Koleman Strumpf, NewsFutures, Paul Rhode, prediction markets, Professor of Business, technology factors, The Netherlands, the New York Times, United States, western Europe, Wharton professor, Wharton professor of business and public policy | 4 Comments

NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.

Posted on April 20, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Economist tells me I should vote for Nicolas Sarkozy. Well… if they really think he’s “the man”… The French presidential election France’s chance Apr 12th 2007 From The Economist print edition After a quarter-century of drift Nicolas Sarkozy offers … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged America, Britain, candidate, coddled public services, economist, Europe, European Central Bank, European Union, Finance, finance minister, FranÃ§ois Mitterrand, France, Francois Bayrou, interior minister, Ireland, Jacques Chirac, Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader, minister, National Front, Nicolas Sarkozy, Open Institute Of Prediction Markets, Paris railway station, Politician, President, Socialist candidate, Spain, The Economist, The Netherlands, Tony Blair, Turkey, UMP party, welfare systems, western Europe | 7 Comments

Tag Archives: western Europe

Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

Justin Wolfers dreams of a prediction market land, where exchange odds are cited but not the polls.

NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.

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