As a result, Midas Oracle is now ahead of the NYT.

TAKEAWAY: Google Search is about both keywords (that, you already knew) and reputation (i.e., inbound links). Incoming links is what any CEO (not just SEO) should be focusing about. Get links, folks. Links is the currency of the Web.

[*] Hence, the power of blog networks —as opposed to solo blogs.

- Use iTools for Macintosh to clean up your Internet footprints.

- iTools will screw up your FireFox bookmarks. Any newly bookmarked URL will be deleted when you restart FireFox. To cure that, read this and do what they tell you to do.

- You will now be able to see the brand-new favicon of Midas Oracle.

- Another useful tool is Favicon Picker, which is a FireFox extension.

- More IT tips and IT links.

P.S.: I should not tell you, but here is the tool I used to create that favicon.

- Auction system in the NFL. – Via prof Mike Giberson from Texas.

- Local newspapers are going down the toilets, and so is democracy.

- It is an L-shaped recession. [*]

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[*] Happy Saturday morning, anyway.

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Re-send.

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- A good take on Rupert Murdoch‘s political influences and how he uses them for corporate advantage.

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By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.

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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

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More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

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Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

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2008 US Elections

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InTrade

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2008 US Electoral College

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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

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- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.

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Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

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- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage.

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

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BetFair

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Winning Party

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Next US President

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Iowa Electronic Markets

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

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Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

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Canadian Elections

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InTrade

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Winner of Next Canadian Federal Election – Political Party

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Conservatives

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Liberal

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BetFair

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2008 Federal Election

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Most Seats

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Overall Majority

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UK Elections

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BetFair

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Next General Election – Most Seats

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Next UK Prime Minister

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InTrade

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Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

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UK Conservatives

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UK Labour

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The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

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Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

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For more on probabilistic predictions, go to our “Predictions” page, or visit our webpage listing all the main prediction exchanges.

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ElectoralMarkets.com

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Via Read & Write Web

2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls)

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UPDATE: Hal Finney

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See our PREDICTIONS page for more predictive data…

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Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com).

By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen.

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-

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

-

#2. Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

-

Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

-

-

InTrade

-

2008 US Electoral College

2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland = electoralmarkets.com

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- This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

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- This is a static chart, which is not up to date. Right-click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the updated version.

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

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2008 US Senate Control

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2008 US House Of Representatives Control

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Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade. The individual charts above, however, are from InTrade v2. I might later transition to the charts from either InTrade .COM or InTrade .NET.

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BetFair

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Winning Party

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Next US President

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Iowa Electronic Markets

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

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2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

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- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

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NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

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- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

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-

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Electoral-Vote.com

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For more on probabilistic predictions, go to our “Predictions” page, or visit our webpage listing all the main prediction exchanges.

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Oregon’s Democratic Primary

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InTrade

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BetFair

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Kentucky’s Democratic Primary

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InTrade

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BetFair

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NewsFutures

Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

© NewsFutures

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First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections

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2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

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2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

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Next US President

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Winning Party

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Female President?

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Democratic Candidate

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Republican Candidate

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Source: BetFair Politics Zone

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Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

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Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Democratic.

© NewsFutures

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Next US President Will Be Republican.

© NewsFutures

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

-

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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Here’s the WordPress plugin I’m testing: Cross-Linker by Jan Hvizdak

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Now, let’s test it. I’m writing a list of people and organizations, and the plugin will automatically embed a link into each text anchor:

• Robin Hanson
• InTrade
• InTrade Forum
• Inkling Markets
• Inkling Markets Blog
• Inkling Markets Forum
• Justin Wolfers
• Michael Giberson
• Slate
• Koleman Strumpf
• Prediction Market Industry Association
• Midas Oracle .ORG
• Marginal Revolution
• Cato Institute
• Chicago Mercantile Exchange
• CNN
• Google
• TradeSports
• TradeSports Forum
• NewsFutures
• NewsFutures Blog
• Freakonomics @ New York Times
• Odd Head
• Bo Cowgill
• BetFair
• Betting @ BetFair
• BetFair Forum
• Felix Salmon @ Portfolio

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OK, let’s see whether it works fine. The words and phrases in the list above should be underlined in blue, with links embedded in them.

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UPDATE: Works like a charm.

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