Tag Archives: Washington D.C.
My response to the CFTC on event contracts
Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]
A Democratic sweep in Washington DC, in November 2008, will likely lead to the legalization of the real-money prediction markets.
Gambling 911:
With the Nevada Caucuses taking place this Saturday, The Las Vegas Sun reports that Democrat Hillary Clinton supports a study to determine if Internet gambling can be fairly regulated so that individuals can safely participate in it and American businesses can compete in the international market.
I was not able to find that article [...]
The market moved but is it news?
In financial markets there is strong evidence to suggest that news gets priced into markets within 15 minutes of its release and sometimes even more quickly. Recent research into prediction markets suggests that they aren’t nearly as efficient with researchers from University of Pennsylvania showing that prices on IEM can be predicted using public news [...]
InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones.
InTrade has just opened (and not publicized yet on their site feed) a set of global warming prediction markets —more exactly, event derivative markets on whether the world’s biggest national governments will soon agree to reduce CO2 emissions under the UNFCCC treaty. They are, in my view, more interesting than the pitiful BetFair’s prediction markets [...]
The definitive proof that Emile Servan-Schreiber, the NewsFutures CEO, is an essential part of the world-wide conspiracy aiming at silencing BetFair.
[This post is filed in the "humor" category, of course. ]
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Take a look at the blogroll of the NewsFutures blog, which cites everybody but BetFair:
Recent Posts
UC Riverside’s eLab eXchange : featuring Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageants
Demise of a Sarko Killer
Results of the Dutch Political Stock Market
Los Angeles conference on collective intelligence networks
Washington DC [...]
The Civil War Gold Hoax
Straight from Wikipedia:
Civil War Gold Hoax was an 1864 hoax perpetrated by two US journalists to exploit the financial situation during the United States Civil War.
On May 18, 1864, two New York City newspapers, the New York World and the New York Journal of Commerce, published a story that President Abraham Lincoln had issued [...]
Great City Group Blogs
A short note to tip you about a set of great city group blogs I have just found out. (City blog = a blog that focuses on the big and small news about one city.)
Austin – Boston – Chicago – Houston – London – Los Angeles – New York City – Paris – Philadelphia – [...]
Where do carbon credits trade in Europe?
- Wikipedia – Emissions trading:
The European Union Emission Trading Scheme is the largest multi-national, greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the world. It commenced operation in January 2005 and all 25-member states of the European Union participate in the scheme.
- Wikipedia – Carbon emissions trading:
The world’s only mandatory carbon trading program is the European Union [...]
Quick remarks on Adrien Amzallag’s dissertation: Designing a Terrorism Prediction Market
I will make two short remarks on Adrien Amzallag’s dissertation, Distilling an Uncertain Future: Designing a Terrorism Prediction Market (PDF).
1. Prediction Market Scenery:
Adrien Amzallag states that “Prediction markets innovate in that aggregating information and information discovery are their primary purpose—not profits (Wolfers 2004, Feigenbaum 2003).” Humm… In America, the field of prediction markets has been [...]
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