Addendum: Max Keiser’-s blog
Addendum: Max Keiser’-s blog
With this 6th episode, The Oracle is finally out of beta. The show is now well structured.
It is both informative and entertaining —-and it has rhythm and style.
Now, watch the show.
– Banks are no longer allowed to pay their analysts from any revenue derived from investment banking, only from trading operations.
– An investment banker can’t call a research analyst at the same firm without a lawyer chaperoning the conversation.
New York Times
Good parallel is drawn, in the article, with journalism.
Thanks for the response. Ita€™s interesting to see examples of product news stories and how your markets responded. These examples suggest that your game share prices are connected with sales. Ia€™m not surprised and Keynes wouldna€™t be either. His beauty contest view explains exactly why prices on the simExchange are connected to sales despite the fact that game shares have no intrinsic connection to sales (no dividends based on sales, nor the possibility to liquidate based on actual sales). The tradersa€™ comments you mentioned confirm that traders have picked up on this point and are buying and selling in anticipation of other tradersa€™ actions. Certainly, a lot of trading on Wall Street works the same way.
My point that game shares have no intrinsic value, unlike Wall Street shares, has two implications. First, ita€™s one reason that prices on the simExchange may deviate more from actual sales than prices on Wall Street exchanges deviate from actual value. Importantly, this statement doesna€™t say that simExchanges prices will deviate more, nor does it say that any deviation will be large. Further, your simExchange has at least one advantage for keeping prices near sales that Wall Street does not have: your market makers have infinite resources to keep prices at reasonable levels. Second, although irrelevant since the simExchange uses play money, the fact that game shares have no intrinsic value prevents the simExchange from ever working with real money.
Previous: The structure of simExchange game stocks
Previous: An invitation to join the simExchange beta + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + Sim Exchange –- How to earn additional money? + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First
From the Horse’-s mouth (Max Keiser):
Max Keiser is a financial engineer who likes to turn things into markets. After working on Wall Street during the eighties, Keiser turned his hand to Hollywood, where, rather than chase starlets as every other man in Hollywood was doing, he began commoditising those same starlets by trading them on the Hollywood Stock Exchange, a virtual market in celebrities that he created long before the BBC ripped his idea off with Celebdaq. The starlets loved him for turning them into the commodities they always wanted to be and Keiser was awarded three U.S. patents for the virtual specialist technology on which HSX runs. During his weekly NBC appearances on ‘-Access Hollywood,’- Keiser became the first person since the days of McCarthy to be boycotted by every major Hollywood studio at the same time. When Keiser accurately predicted weekend box office gross for nine weeks running on his HSX segment of NBC’-s ‘-Access Hollywood,’- the major studios decided that free markets were not so great after all and called for NBC to remove the heretic in their monopolistic midst or lose access to Hollywood ‘-talent.’- HSX was sold to Cantor Fitzgerald and Keiser moved to Europe where he created Karmabanque, a virtual market in monetising dissent.
Addendum (November 16, 2006): I received this disambiguation note from someone who knows the HSX history…-
Max Keiser was not involved with HSX at the time of the acquisition nor was he part of the process.
Addendum (February 23, 2007): Max Keiser replies…-
To say that I was not involved with the sale of HSX to Cantor is incorrect. I did not endorse the sale of HSX to Cantor – I voted against it – because the deal with Cantor was not, in my opinion, above board.
Two days ago, I stated brashly that political prediction markets aggregate the polls, mainly. (Mike Linksvayer nuanced my propos, in the comment area.)
GOP Keeps Senate, Loses House, Betting Site Says. – [US political prediction markets] – by Ronald Kessler – 2006-10-24
One theory is that prediction markets are influenced by the results of opinion polls. But if that were true, individual polls would also influence each other. Moreover, long before the Internet and opinion polls came into existence, election betting was accurately predicting election outcomes. From 1884 to 1940, betting was conducted on Wall Street by specialized brokers called betting commissioners. The betting odds for each candidate were published daily in the New York Times and other papers. The so-called New York betting markets correctly predicted 12 of the 13 presidential elections between 1884 and 1940, according to Koleman S. Strumpf, Koch professor of economics, University of Kansas School of Business, who co-authored a paper examining the markets. In the one exception, the betting swung to even odds by the time the polls closed. The Gallup Poll, the first scientific opinion poll, began in 1935. The arrival of opinion polls and stricter anti-gambling laws drove out the New York betting markets. The Internet has led to their revival.
Paper: Historical Prediction Markets: Wagering on Presidential Elections – (PDF) – by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf – 2003-11-10
My Question: Before 1935 (that’-s when George Gallup crafted the first scientific polls), what the hell those political prediction markets were aggregating, for Christ’-s sake??? And where is our good doctor Koleman Strumpf when we need him?
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse: