Tag Archives: value applications

A highly accurate prediction market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

Posted on March 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson – Overcoming Bias – - Robin Hanson at LinkedIn – Robin Hanson: Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, advanced researcher, Bo Cowgill, business value, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitwewitz, Google, info value, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, value applications | 2 Comments

Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Posted on March 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06 – VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, active trader, advanced researcher, anonymous trading, architect, Bo Cowgill, CDA model for their markets, CEO, Chief Economist, computer-aided facility management systems, corporate applications, corporate prediction markets, crowd-wisdom applications, demographic networks, Doug Banks, economist, efficieny, Enterprise prediction market consultant, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Schmidt, Eric Zitwewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, gas prices, Google, Google Using Prediction, Google's enterprise prediction markets, Google's prediction exchange, Google's prediction markets, GPS, Hal Varian, high profile applications, Ilya Kirnos, implicit social networks, internal prediction markets, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, language networks, Linux, Michael Giberson, open-source software, Patri Friedman, Piaw Na, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Private, private prediction markets, real estate management group, Robin Hanson, Social Networks, social/professional networks, software engineers, software-and-consulting model, the New York Times, Tim Harford, Trader, ubiquitous communication technology, United States, USD, value applications, Zubin Jelveh | 18 Comments

Merger Markets on Microsoft-Yahoo

Posted on February 2, 2008 by Robin Hanson

HP began to explore prediction markets in 1996, but did not even consider applying them to the 2002 HP-Compaq merger. Similarly, Yahoo and Microsoft are two of the companies mentioned most often as being involved in prediction markets (along with … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Proposals) | Tagged Compaq, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, merger, Microsoft, prediction markets, value applications, web ads, Yahoo! | 12 Comments

Tag Archives: value applications

A highly accurate prediction market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Merger Markets on Microsoft-Yahoo

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