Midas Oracle .ORG » usability

Google+ is just another Google Wave: Cool, but too complex. — [LINK]

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 20:59:02 +0000

Evaluation.

Conclusion.

Usability take of the day for collective forecasters

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 06:43:14 +0000

“It’s time to show most passwords in clear text as users type them.”

The Fox… and the Hedgehog

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 07 May 2009 20:11:27 +0000

Emile Servan-Schreiber looks like the fox to me. He acknowledges a reality: the prediction market adoption problematic. (Leslie Fine is in the same boat.) Okay, but I want more proof. How come Inkling Markets administrators seem to be happy with MSR, then?

Adam Siegel is no hedgehog.

Addendum

Here is the definition of a fox (as opposed to a hedgehog):

a thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events;
a self-critical, eclectic thinker who is willing to update his/her beliefs when faced with contrary evidence, who is doubtful of grand schemes and is rather modest about his/her predictive ability.

P2 = a revolution in blogging

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 06 May 2009 06:15:56 +0000

As I told you the other day, I am very impressed by P2, a new interactive WordPress theme. I have not selected it for Midas Oracle (I chose WP FrameWork), but I think that P2 will influence a lot of other themes.

Download this post if your feed reader doesnâ€™t show you the embedded video above.

What prediction markets can learn from Twitter — REDUX

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 05 May 2009 09:49:04 +0000

S-I-M-P-L-I-C-I-T-Y + C-U-S-T-O-M-I-Z-A-T-I-O-N

Twitter is a very simplistic core. Around that core is a whole ecosystem that adds value to Twitter. You have a large choice of “Twitter clients”, and there are plenty of websites out there that complement the basic Twitter service.

It is the anti-BetFair case. The future prediction exchanges will be built around a simplistic core, and there will be plenty of add-ons and complimentary services —all of which will be optional, so as not to scare off the newbies.

What prediction markets can learn from Twitter

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 04 May 2009 09:42:01 +0000

S-I-M-P-L-I-C-I-T-Y

If betting and trading were as simple and elegant as twittering (think of it as the anti-BetFair case), then we would be able to convert the whole Planet Earth to using and checking prediction markets —providing that prediction markets [*] were truly a purple cow, which is something many of us are discussing (sometimes vehemently) these days. (My position is well know.)

There is ample room for brand-new US startups tackling prediction markets in a simpler and more elegant way. Contact moi.

[*] in their forecasting dimension (as opposed to their betting dimension)

UPDATE: Of course, this post was twittered…

FOLLOW-UP

The Iowa Health Prediction Market is usable for the probability seekers.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 20:06:46 +0000

Iowa Health Prediction Market

Swine Influenza Prediction Markets

I like how they use icons, and the way they display probabilities on that page. It is clear, and we can get the info real quick.

Emile tells me that IHPM was developed with NewsFutures source code, but customized by them.

Simpler Input Mechanisms

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:43:19 +0000

I really like what Emile Servan-Schreiber replied to Robin Hanson. I really like it. However, if I am correct NewsFutures never implemented MSR, so how can Emile be so affirmative? Rather, I would like to hear from Mat Fogarty or Leslie Fine (of Xpree/CrowdCast) who did implement MSR, and recently decided to move out to non-trading mechanisms.

UPDATE: The Fox… and the Hedgehog

Smarkets want to attract bettors that are (allegedly) scared to death by BetFair’s complexity.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 20:16:17 +0000

Smarkets TechCrunch Geek’n Rolla Pitch from Smarkets on Vimeo.

Download this post to see the embedded video above —if your feed reader doesn’t show it to you.

Smarkets – Blog post

Amazing smart little things… that will never make it to the market.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 09:40:55 +0000

The first video shows you a smart ass from MIT that invented unusable smart little things. It is truly awesome to watch. The problem is that, even thought the HCI looks cool, these amazing smart little things obey to rules that are not intuitive to mainstream people. Only their creator(s) know what are the rules that govern those damn gadgets. I bet that those toys will never make it big. They look cool, but they are too complex, actually —they are not intuitive.

I short-sell David Merrill.

By contrast, here are 2 amazing demos of high-tech products that will make it big in the near future.

I am long Jeff Hahn and Johnny Lee.