Midas Oracle .ORG » US President

Electing a US President

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 18:29:21 +0000

An explainer for dummies

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 15:13:50 +0000

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities.

I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Contents

a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral college
the latest news about the race for the White House
a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state polls
more prediction market probabilities

PREDICTION MARKET PROBABILITIES

- This is a dynamic electoral map from InTrade, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

- This is a dynamic electoral map from InTrade, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

-
- This is a dynamic electoral map from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college:

LATEST NEWS

- Rush to Memeorandum, the Drudge Report and Real Clear Politics to check what are the most talked about issues of the day.

- The (sad) death of Barack Obama’s grandmother has reminded the voters that the Democratic nominee is both “black” (African-American) and “white” (Caucasian). That might reassure some white voters, and could diminish a bit the so-called “Bradley Effect” —which I don’t believe is a factor in this presidential race, anyway.

- The 2 November surprises (Barack Obama’s aunt is an “illegal alien” + Barack Obama believes in the usefulness of very high green taxes) have probably damaged Barack Obama’s attractiveness with the voters who believe in strict immigration control and the virtues of free markets.

- The US stock markets have (probably, temporarily) stopped spiraling into the abyss. (John McCain became more unpopular each time the stocks went down, these last weeks. So, when Wall Street is doing OK, it won’t help Barack Obama, additionally.)

- Beware the exit polls, they have proved to be somewhat unreliable, in the past. They have a Democratic bias.

- As for how this historic day will roll out, check Nate Slver‘s railroad at NewsWeek.

STATE POLLS

CNN:

Pollster:

Electoral-Vote.com:

Nate Silver:

PollTrack:

MORE PREDICTION MARKET PROBABILITIES

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of the partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets enable us to attain collective intelligence. Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. The event derivative traders are informed by the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. These informed speculators then execute their transactions based on their anticipations about the future —anticipations that will be either confirmed or infirmed.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

- Listed below are the odds produced by the prediction exchanges. If you are interested in the predictions, we advise you to have a close look, first, at the real-money prediction markets (InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and the Iowa Electronic Markets). Now, if you want to have real fun interacting with the news, we recommend that you trade on the play-money prediction markets (HubDub and NewsFutures).

- If you want to visit one of those prediction exchanges, put your mouse on the selected dynamic chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab.

2008 US Elections

InTrade

2008 US Electoral College

2008 US Presidential Elections – By State

- To get to the InTrade prediction market webpage for a specific state, right-click the state link, and open it in another browser tab.

State of Alabama – Democratic – Republican
State of Alaska – Democratic – Republican
State of Arizona – Democratic – Republican
State of Arkansas – Democratic – Republican
State of California – Democratic – Republican
State of Colorado – Democratic – Republican
District of Columbia – Democratic – Republican
State of Connecticut – Democratic – Republican
State of Delaware – Democratic – Republican
State of Florida – Democratic – Republican
State of Georgia – Democratic – Republican
State of Hawaii – Democratic – Republican
State of Idaho – Democratic – Republican
State of Illinois – Democratic – Republican
State of Indiana – Democratic – Republican
State of Iowa – Democratic – Republican
State of Kansas – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Kentucky – Democratic – Republican
State of Louisiana – Democratic – Republican
State of Maine – Democratic – Republican
State of Maryland – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Massachusetts – Democratic – Republican
State of Michigan – Democratic – Republican
State of Minnesota – Democratic - Republican
State of Mississippi – Democratic – Republican
State of Missouri – Democratic – Republican
State of Montana – Democratic – Republican
State of Nebraska – Democratic – Republican
State of Nevada – Democratic – Republican
State of New Hampshire – Democratic – Republican
State of New Jersey – Democratic – Republican
State of New Mexico – Democratic – Republican
State of New York – Democratic – Republican
State of North Carolina – Democratic – Republican
State of North Dakota – Democratic – Republican
State of Ohio – Democratic – Republican
State of Oklahoma – Democratic - Republican
State of Oregon – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania – Democratic – Republican
State of Rhode Island – Democratic – Republican
State of South Carolina – Democratic – Republican
State of South Dakota – Democratic – Republican
State of Tennessee – Democratic – Republican
State of Texas – Democratic – Republican
State of Utah – Democratic – Republican
State of Vermont – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Virginia – Democratic – Republican
State of Washington – Democratic – Republican
State of West Virginia – Democratic – Republican
State of Wisconsin – Democratic – Republican
State of Wyoming – Democratic – Republican

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage. – [The InTrade dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

2008 US Senate Control

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

Sources:
- The dynamic, compound prediction market charts are from InTrade .COM.
- The individual charts, however, are from InTrade .COM v2. We will later transition to the charts from InTrade .COM when the charting quality of their widgets improves.
- We are also waiting to be able to hot-link to the advanced charts of InTrade .COM.

BetFair

Winning Party

Next US President

- This is a dynamic compound chart from BetFair, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this BetFair widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

Source:

- BetFair Politics Zone

- BetFair Chart Widgets – [They are based on Flash, a shitty technology that doesn't go into feeds.]

Iowa Electronic Markets

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

HubDub

2008 US Presidential Elections

- This is a dynamic electoral map from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic charts listed below go into feeds.]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college:

- This is a dynamic compound chart from HubDub, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds.]

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

2008 US Senate Elections

What will be the number of Democratic Seats in the Senate after the 08 Elections?

2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

What will be the number of Democratic Seats in House of Representatives after 08 Elections?

NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

Â© NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Republican.

Â© NewsFutures

Swing States For The 2008 US Presidential Elections

- 2008 Electoral College

- NewsFutures and Bet2Give used to have chart widgets on the US primaries, which didn’t go into feed readers. We are waiting for their next chart widgets.

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- CNN – US Electoral Map

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Pollster – Polls

- Poll Track – Polls

- Wikipedia – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

Other Prediction Markets Related To The 2008 US Presidential Elections

At what level will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close on Election Day?

The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

-
[This post was cross-posted from Midas Oracle .COM.]

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 16:21:45 +0000

Folks,

IMPORTANT NOTE:

- Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets.

- Additionally, the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) is going to publish many posts per day about the US elections (scheduled for Tuesday November 4, 2008), as seen by the prediction markets —starting tomorrow morning. We will also cover many other prediction markets on non-political topics —when we think that they bring an interesting Ã©clairage ( ).

- DO SUBSCRIBE TO THE OTHER BLOG, RIGHT NOW: http://www.midasoracle.com/feed/

- Use Google Reader to subscribe to blogs.

- Pssttt… If you don’t want to subscribe to the other blog, and want to stay with this present blog, don’t worry, that’s OK, we will continue to update you here with everything you should know about the prediction markets (including the US elections). The other blog is meant to bring much more to the news junkies, without bothering the readership of this present blog. So, if you choose to limit yourself to this present blog, that’s fine with us, and we will make sure you don’t miss anything important.

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

- Listed below are the odds produced by the prediction exchanges. If you are interested in the predictions, we advise you to have a close look, first, at the real-money prediction markets (InTrade, BetFair and the Iowa Electronic Markets). Now, if you want to have real fun interacting with the news, we recommend that you trade on the play-money prediction markets (HubDub and NewsFutures).

- If you want to visit one of those prediction exchanges, put your mouse on the selected dynamic chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab.

2008 US Elections

InTrade

2008 US Electoral College

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

2008 US Presidential Elections – By State

- To get to the InTrade prediction market webpage for a specific state, right-click the state link, and open it in another browser tab.

State of Alabama – Democratic – Republican
State of Alaska – Democratic – Republican
State of Arizona – Democratic – Republican
State of Arkansas – Democratic – Republican
State of California – Democratic – Republican
State of Colorado – Democratic – Republican
District of Columbia – Democratic – Republican
State of Connecticut – Democratic – Republican
State of Delaware – Democratic – Republican
State of Florida – Democratic – Republican
State of Georgia – Democratic – Republican
State of Hawaii – Democratic – Republican
State of Idaho – Democratic – Republican
State of Illinois – Democratic – Republican
State of Indiana – Democratic – Republican
State of Iowa – Democratic – Republican
State of Kansas – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Kentucky – Democratic – Republican
State of Louisiana – Democratic – Republican
State of Maine – Democratic – Republican
State of Maryland – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Massachusetts – Democratic – Republican
State of Michigan – Democratic – Republican
State of Minnesota – Democratic - Republican
State of Mississippi – Democratic – Republican
State of Missouri – Democratic – Republican
State of Montana – Democratic – Republican
State of Nebraska – Democratic – Republican
State of Nevada – Democratic – Republican
State of New Hampshire – Democratic – Republican
State of New Jersey – Democratic – Republican
State of New Mexico – Democratic – Republican
State of New York – Democratic – Republican
State of North Carolina – Democratic – Republican
State of North Dakota – Democratic – Republican
State of Ohio – Democratic – Republican
State of Oklahoma – Democratic - Republican
State of Oregon – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania – Democratic – Republican
State of Rhode Island – Democratic – Republican
State of South Carolina – Democratic – Republican
State of South Dakota – Democratic – Republican
State of Tennessee – Democratic – Republican
State of Texas – Democratic – Republican
State of Utah – Democratic – Republican
State of Vermont – Democratic – Republican
Commonwealth of Virginia – Democratic – Republican
State of Washington – Democratic – Republican
State of West Virginia – Democratic – Republican
State of Wisconsin – Democratic – Republican
State of Wyoming – Democratic – Republican

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage. – [The InTrade dynamic charts listed below go into feeds. ]

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

2008 US Senate Control

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

BetFair

Winning Party

Next US President

- This is a dynamic compound chart, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this BetFair widget, since it doesn't display within feed readers.]

Source:

- BetFair Politics Zone

- BetFair Chart Widgets – (They are based on Flash, a shitty technology that doesn’t go into feeds. )

Iowa Electronic Markets

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

HubDub

2008 US Presidential Elections

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic charts listed below go into feeds. ]

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college:

- This is a dynamic compound chart, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds. ]

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

2008 US Senate Elections

- This is a dynamic compound chart, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds. ]

What will be the number of Democratic Seats in the Senate after the 08 Elections?

2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- This is a dynamic compound chart, which updates itself each time you refresh this webpage. – [The HubDub dynamic chart listed below go into feeds. ]

What will be the number of Democratic Seats in House of Representatives after 08 Elections?

NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

Â© NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Republican.

Â© NewsFutures

- NewsFutures and Bet2Give used to have chart widgets on the US primaries, which didn’t go into feed readers. We are waiting for their next chart widgets.

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

UK Elections

BetFair

Next General Election – Most Seats

Next UK Prime Minister

InTrade

Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

UK Conservatives

UK Labour

The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 19:47:14 +0000

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative represents the imputed perceived likelihood of this partially uncertain event (i.e., its aggregated expected probability). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, the favored outcome is expected to occur 60 times out of 100, and the unfavored outcome is expected to occur 40 times out of 100.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism —with or without an automated market maker.

More Info:

- The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

- Prediction Market Science

- The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

- All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

#2. Objective Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets

Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.

2008 US Elections

InTrade

2008 US Electoral College

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website (ElectoralMarkets.com) in another browser tab to get the bigger version.

- This is a dynamic electoral map, which is up to date. Feed readers: Download this webpage to visualize this InTrade widget.

Source:

- The electoral map widget is from InTrade .COM.

- InTrade .COM.

- All the charts below are also dynamic —they update themselves each time you open this webpage.

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Political Party

2008 US Congressional Elections Winner – Political Party

2008 US Senate Control

2008 US House Of Representatives Control

BetFair

Winning Party

Next US President

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

Iowa Electronic Markets

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Vote Share Market

2008 U.S. Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market

- Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Democratic.

Â© NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Republican.

Â© NewsFutures

HubDub

- HubDub’s prediction markets on the 2008 electoral college

Resources on US Politics

- CNN – US Political Dashboard

- Yahoo! News – US Political Dashboard

- Real Clear Politics – Polls

- Electoral-Vote.com – Polls

- Five Thirty Eight – Polls

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Presidential Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US House Of Representatives Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Senate Elections

- Wikipedia – 2008 US Gubernatorial Elections

Canadian Elections

InTrade

Winner of Next Canadian Federal Election – Political Party

Conservatives

Liberal

BetFair

2008 Federal Election

Most Seats

Overall Majority

UK Elections

BetFair

Next General Election – Most Seats

Next UK Prime Minister

InTrade

Winner of Next UK Election – Political Party

UK Conservatives

UK Labour

The Prediction Exchanges

- List of the main real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) at Midas Oracle

- Complete list of the real-money and play-money prediction exchanges at CFM

Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

- Other Charts Of Expired Prediction Markets

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 21:36:30 +0000

WEBB DOESN’T WANT TO BE VP.

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

-
-

Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 09:56:06 +0000

Via mister Bo Cowgill

The New Republic

Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop.

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton’s exit statement. (He liked it.)

UPDATE: InTrade forum thread.

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

-
-

Explainer On Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 15:43:01 +0000

George Will:

[...] Surely she, the most polarizing Democrat, is not the only Democrat who can help Obama appeal to the voters who rejected him in Kentucky and West Virginia. And as his running mate, she would nullify his narrative. The candidate embracing the “future” should not glue himself to Washington circa 1993. Someone promising to “turn the page” should not revert to an earlier chapter. Someone whose mantra is “change” should not embrace her theme of restoration — that the 1990s were paradise and Democrats promise paradise regained.

She, whose experiences as First Spouse have not impressed Obama as acquisitions of national security expertise, would not help him deflect McCain’s predictable attack on his thin curriculum vitae. And the more she seems to be pushing Obama to choose her, the more resolutely he must resist. Otherwise, at the beginning of a contest in which McCain will portray him as a flimsy figure, Obama will define himself as someone who can be pushed around. [...]

Some British betting bloggers are out of the loop.

See my previous story for more on all that.

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

-
-

Explainer On Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 13:06:05 +0000

- Michelle [Obama] Vetoes Hillary [Clinton]. – by Robert Novak – May 20, 2008 —– mirror link.

A veto —it’s a strong word. Those British betting bloggers are out of the loop.

Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 15:06:03 +0000

Dick Morris:

It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. [...] Finally, having Hillary in the West Wing would be a nightmare.

Dick Morris:

Instead of conceding defeat and campaigning for Obama, auditioning for the spot of loyal teammate, Hillary insists on keeping her options open and vies for the spotlight with Obama, exactly what you do not want a vice president to do. [...]

But the more serious problem is the public record that Todd Purdum, an excellent journalist, laid out in his Vanity Fair piece. Billâ€™s relationships with billionaires, his pursuit of financial gain, his alliance with the emir of Dubai, and his acceptance of speaking fees and income from some of the least savory of types is not what you need to carry around with you in a presidential race. [...]

More Info: See Andrew Sullivan… who views Hillary Clinton as a detestable lady…

So, stay away from the “Hillary Clinton As VP” prediction markets…

Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”. — Select well your primary, advanced indicators. — Choose your bets carefully.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 12:02:29 +0000

The topic of this post is:

Betting & Information

#1. Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets.

I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain.

You can’t divine their final thoughts.

Politicians often lie about their intentions —they also change mind, frequently.

The decision to name one VP nominee could be made in secret —without any early warnings.

Surprise is a card that Barack Obama and John McCain could play. Don’t bet against their final will.

#2. Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”.

Last time, in 2000, a man named Dick Cheney was appointed to head George W. Bush’s vice presidential selection committee.

He was supposed to scout around to find and assess good candidates.

Surprise, surprise, that fake committee ended up putting Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket —and the rest is history (Iraq war, etc.).

#3. Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP.

She does not have the slightest chance.

It’s highly unlikely that Barack Obama selects her on the Democratic ticket.

Hillary Clinton as VP nominee (and as VP) would present many quasi insurmountable problems.

#4. Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket.

They are clueless.

Don’t read clueless people. They are a waste of time.

#5. Select well your primary, advanced indicators.

Go to the sources of information. Discard filters. Your insatiable curiosity should drive your search for information.
Use technology to select the best news articles out there. Bookmark Memeorandum for US politics (and TechMeme for information technology) —they use bloggers’ links to select what’s hot, a bit like Google’s PageRank does.
Use the crowd to sense what’s hot or to discover marginally interesting tidbits. I have 56 friends on Google Reader who share their best items with me. I got many interesting stories that way, every day, from sources I would have never known about, otherwise. (Plus, I receive many e-mails each day from potential sources.)

#6. Choose your bets (and trades) carefully.

Just because an event derivative is cheap doesn’t mean that it’s a good bet.

Don’t pluck down money on a bet unless you’ve seriously researched the topic by yourself —and possesses some expertise or experience in that field.

FOLLOW-UP POST: 2 days after my ringing the alarm bellâ€¦ THE FREE FALL

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

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Explainer On Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.