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Tag Archives: University of Pennsylvania
Science comes to the rescue of the “leading academics” suffering lapses of memory —those who, on Monday, signed on to be on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America —and, on the next Tuesday, signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition.
CX717 = “memory pills” US scientists have invented a pill that can boost memory. – Invented by Dr Gary Lynch from the University of California. – - John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Industry), Humor, Science
Tagged California, CEO, CX717, Gary Lynch, George Mason University, Humor, InTrade, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, memory lapses, memory loss, memory pills, Pennsylvania, Prediction Market Industry Association, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, United States Of America, University of California, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School
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Pssttt… Did I tell you that I like InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)? I can’t remember whether I did tell you that already. (I do suffer memory lapses, sometimes. I know it’s a common affliction, because I see that Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers, just before they signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition, completely forgot that they were on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America. A lapse in memory, probably.)
John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics have been supplied with Intrade … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Industry), Humor
Tagged academics, CEO, George Mason University, Humor, InTrade, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, Pennsylvania, PMIA, Prediction Market Industry Association, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, United States Of America, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School
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The best researchers on prediction markets
CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading
Posted in People, Resources - References
Tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling
- Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton
- James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan
- Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski
- Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand
- Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow
- Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage
- Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica
- Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian
- Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode
- Paul Rhode, W. Ross
- Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager
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Business Overconfidence as seen thru Google’s Enterprise Prediction Markets
Bo Cowgill: At OVERCOMING BIAS, Robin Hanson blogs about the overconfidence of CEOs, CFOs and software managers. Our paper also measured overconfidence in the workplace. We found that our marketplace was overconfident as a whole, although the market’s optimistic bias … Continue reading
Posted in Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Psychology
Tagged corporate prediction markets, Dartmouth College, economic analyst, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, software managers, University of Pennsylvania
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Tim Harford on office micro-geography (and Google’s enterprise prediction markets)
Tim Harford: [...] We keep being told that because of cheap, ubiquitous communication technology, distance is dead. But if there was ever a company that we should expect to exemplify that idea, surely it was Google. This research suggests that … Continue reading
Posted in Business, Cases, Exchanges & Markets
Tagged corporate prediction markets, Dartmouth College, economic analyst, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, micro-geography, organizational sociology, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Tim Harford, ubiquitous communication technology, University of Pennsylvania
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Is it good to have a prediction market melting pot of academics and businesses?
The Journal of Prediction Markets: The Journal of Prediction Markets Editor: Leighton Vaughan Williams Associate Editors: John Delaney – CEO InTrade Bruno Deschamps – University of Bath Olivier Gergaud – Université de Reims Champagne-Ardennes Robin Hanson – George Mason University … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Industry), Ethics, Resources - References
Tagged academics, Arizona, Bruno Deschamps, Business, Canterbury University, CEO, Charles Noussair, David Paton, Editor, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Emory University, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, George Mason University, Jed Christiansen, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, London Business School, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Michael Smith, Niall O'Connor, Nottingham University Business School, Olivier Gergaud, Paul Rhode, Pennsylvania, PMIA, Prediction Market Industry Association, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Stanford Graduate School, The Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Arizona, University of Bath, University of Kansas School of Business, University of Passau
Koleman Strumpf, University of Pennsylvania
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Robin Hanson is not convinced by the Google experiment with enterprise prediction markets –to say the least.
Robin Hanson in a comment on Marginal Revolution: This is important work for organizational sociology, but not for prediction markets, as this does little to help us find and field high value markets. Finally, somebody who speaks the truth. See … Continue reading
Posted in Cases, Exchanges & Markets
Tagged corporate prediction markets, Dartmouth College, economic analyst, economist, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, Michael Giberson, micro-geography, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, University of Pennsylvania
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ROBIN HANSON TELLS THE TRUTH ON GOOGLE’S ENTERPRISE PREDICTION MARKETS.
Robin Hanson: Yes prediction markets are cool, Google is cool, and it is cool that Google had location data to show how location influences trading. But cool need not be useful. People are not asking the hard questions here: what … Continue reading
Posted in Cases, Exchanges & Markets
Tagged corporate prediction markets, Dartmouth College, economic analyst, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, micro-geography, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, ROBIN HANSON TELLS, University of Pennsylvania, Winston Churchill
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Have Google’s enterprise prediction markets been accurate?
Justin Wolfers: So we decided to move beyond asking, “Do prediction markets work?†and instead use them as a tool for better understanding how information flows within a (very cool) corporation. I am more interested in the accuracy of the … Continue reading
Posted in Cases, Exchanges & Markets
Tagged corporate prediction markets, Dartmouth College, economic analyst, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, internal prediction markets, Justin Wolfers, micro-geography, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, private prediction markets, University of Pennsylvania
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