Tag Archives: University of Pennsylvania

Science comes to the rescue of the “leading academics” suffering lapses of memory —those who, on Monday, signed on to be on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America —and, on the next Tuesday, signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition.

CX717 = “memory pills” US scientists have invented a pill that can boost memory. – Invented by Dr Gary Lynch from the University of California. – - John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): … Continue reading

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Pssttt… Did I tell you that I like InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)? I can’t remember whether I did tell you that already. (I do suffer memory lapses, sometimes. I know it’s a common affliction, because I see that Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers, just before they signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition, completely forgot that they were on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America. A lapse in memory, probably.)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics have been supplied with Intrade … Continue reading

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The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

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Business Overconfidence as seen thru Google’s Enterprise Prediction Markets

Bo Cowgill: At OVERCOMING BIAS, Robin Hanson blogs about the overconfidence of CEOs, CFOs and software managers. Our paper also measured overconfidence in the workplace. We found that our marketplace was overconfident as a whole, although the market’s optimistic bias … Continue reading

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Tim Harford on office micro-geography (and Google’s enterprise prediction markets)

Tim Harford: [...] We keep being told that because of cheap, ubiquitous communication technology, distance is dead. But if there was ever a company that we should expect to exemplify that idea, surely it was Google. This research suggests that … Continue reading

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Is it good to have a prediction market melting pot of academics and businesses?

The Journal of Prediction Markets: The Journal of Prediction Markets Editor: Leighton Vaughan Williams Associate Editors: John Delaney – CEO InTrade Bruno Deschamps – University of Bath Olivier Gergaud – Université de Reims Champagne-Ardennes Robin Hanson – George Mason University … Continue reading

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Organizational Sociology & Google’s Enterprise Prediction Markets

Graduate student Ben Spigel’s comment on Richard Florida’s blog: About a decade ago, a group of cognitive scientists looking at Bell Labs found that all things being equal, the chances of two scientists collaborating was 4 times higher if they … Continue reading

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Robin Hanson is not convinced by the Google experiment with enterprise prediction markets –to say the least.

Robin Hanson in a comment on Marginal Revolution: This is important work for organizational sociology, but not for prediction markets, as this does little to help us find and field high value markets. Finally, somebody who speaks the truth. See … Continue reading

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ROBIN HANSON TELLS THE TRUTH ON GOOGLE’S ENTERPRISE PREDICTION MARKETS.

Robin Hanson: Yes prediction markets are cool, Google is cool, and it is cool that Google had location data to show how location influences trading. But cool need not be useful. People are not asking the hard questions here: what … Continue reading

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Have Google’s enterprise prediction markets been accurate?

Justin Wolfers: So we decided to move beyond asking, “Do prediction markets work?” and instead use them as a tool for better understanding how information flows within a (very cool) corporation. I am more interested in the accuracy of the … Continue reading

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