Tag Archives: University of North Carolina

The best research papers on prediction markets

As seen by Andreas Graefe… IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets Research Papers Basics Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g. – Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

Posted in People, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction Market Journalism

Credit: Scientific American magazine – Abstract Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets) Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file. – The problem with the bold statement in … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Prediction Market History + Prediction Market Journalism

The New York Times: [...] Long before political prediction markets sprouted on the Internet, election bets — whether the stakes were money or embarrassing public spectacles — were a ubiquitous part of the American political scene. The practice, which began … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Historical prediction markets vs. scientific polls (or non-scientific polls + bullshit detectors)

Five minutes ago, I lamented that the names of economists Koleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode were not cited in the NewsWeek article. Well, here’s from the WSJ blog $$$ (via JC Kommer): MarketBeat: Betting on Politicians, 1916 Edition – [historical … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

WSJ on the 2004 manipulation of the TradeSports’s Bush contracts.

Know Who Will Win the Election? You Can Bet on It! – ($$$) – (via JC Kommer and via TradeSports forum) – [political betting & political prediction markets] – by Stephen Moore – 2006-10-20 What about market manipulation? Can wealthy … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, History, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment