Tag Archives: ultimate forecasting tool

Collecting bits and pieces of information, and aggregating it, so we can understand what people know.

Charles Plott has nailed it. – I would lay out this dichotomy: Some of our academics, consultants, and exchange executives have sold the prediction markets as the ultimate forecasting tool —which is true, but people translated that as “this is … Continue reading

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Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire? …asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar. So, I’ve been watching the … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments