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Tag Archives: ultimate forecasting tool
Collecting bits and pieces of information, and aggregating it, so we can understand what people know.
Charles Plott has nailed it. – I would lay out this dichotomy: Some of our academics, consultants, and exchange executives have sold the prediction markets as the ultimate forecasting tool —which is true, but people translated that as “this is … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers
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Tagged Alaska, Charles Plott, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, hype, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, meta forecasting tools, omniscient tool, prediction markets, Senate, ultimate forecasting tool, usage, USD, wisdom of crowds
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Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.
Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire? …asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar. So, I’ve been watching the … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Alex Kirtland, Barack Obama, Barak Obama, BetFair, business professor, Chris Masse, Dan Gross, Daniel Gross, Donald Luskin, economist, Emile Servan-Scheiber, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, failure, fiasco, forecasting tool of convenience, Forrest Nelson, France, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Iowa, Justin Wolfers, Markos Moulitsas, Michael Giberson, New Hampshire, NewsFutures, Niall O'Connor, Pennsylvania, Politics, polls, prediction markets, pundits, Robin Hanson, success, The Netherlands, the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, ultimate forecasting tool, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, western Europe
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