Next: The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

Next: Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market.

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Why Chicago Tribune’s Bill Barnhart, Iowa Electronic Markets’ Thomas Rietz, University of Chicago Law School’s Cass Sunstein, Consensus Point’s David Perry and HedgeStreet’s Russell Andersson are totally incompetent prediction market analysts.

Those five incompetents would be better off minding their statement before singing like idiotic canaries.

Those five blablating incompetents are selling the idea that prediction markets to determine the next venue for the 2016 Summer Olympics is a great idea and would be accurate.

Here’s what happened to the Paris 2012 event derivative, my boys:

Chart courtesy of TradeSports-InTrade.

Here’s what I wrote:

TAKEAWAY: It’s very difficult to figure out what will be the decision of a small, secretive committee —whether it’s a group of aristocrats (International Olympic Committee) or a group of civil servants (U.K.’s Casino Advisory Panel).

Paris had the best case, but the Olympics aristocrats chose London anyway.

Same picture for the UK’s Super Casino: Blackpool was the BetFair favorite (62.5%), but the committee picked up Manchester.

Please, Chicago Tribune’s Bill Barnhart, Iowa Electronic Markets’ Thomas Rietz, University of Chicago Law School’s Cass Sunstein, Consensus Point’s David Perry, HedgeStreet’s Russell Andersson, tell the truth; don’t sell fantasy.

And if you are completely incompetent, then leave your seat to someone else.

Next: Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.

Next: Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.

Next: Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?

After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the area in which a regional casino should be licensed is the City of Manchester.

After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the areas in which large casinos should be licensed are: Great Yarmouth; Kingston-upon-Hull; Leeds; Middlesbrough; Milton Keynes; Newham; Solihull and Southampton.

After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the areas in which small casinos should be licensed are: Bath [*] and North East Somerset; Dumfries and Galloway; East Lindsey; Luton; Scarborough; Swansea; Torbay and Wolverhampton.

[*] I love the City of Bath. It’s beautiful. There’s a good university, and there are Roman remains —the Roman “baths”; naturally warm waters (hot springs). Plus, it’s not far away from Stonehenge. I recommend it.

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OK, so the prediction market news of the day is that the super casino license (or “licence”, as they say) is granted to Manchester —while BetFair predicted Blackpool (62,5%). Let’s remember that Paris was the favorite to be the host city of the 2012 Olympics (it will be London):

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TAKEAWAY: It’s very difficult to figure out what will be the decision of a small, secretive committee —whether it’s a group of aristocrats (International Olympic Committee) or a group of civil servants (U.K.’s Casino Advisory Panel).