Midas Oracle .ORG » traders

This economic crisis is like a cancer, if you just wait and wait hoping it is going to go away, just like a cancer it is going to grow and it will be too late! — [VIDEO]

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 20:23:14 +0000

Market is toast:

http://www.facebook.com/alessiorastani

Once again, Robin Hanson exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. — [ANALYSIS]

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 23:10:38 +0000

InTrade’s prediction markets on the recent Arab revolutions didn’t bring anything interesting in our understanding of the Middle East.

Robin Hanson’s insistence is absurd.

InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 14:04:05 +0000

Contra to Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki (who all have exaggerated the usefulness of the prediction markets), collective forecasting is not a tool we can rely on for just anything. As I wrote in the past, we need prediction market analysts who can check brand-new contracts against the pertinence criterion (“Are traders capable of collecting all information regarding the matter?”).

In the Fukushima case, Intrade was worse than a random generator. Outside the TepCo operators, nobody knew anything.

#fail

In my view, InTrade’s contracts on “current events” are over-cited in the economics literature and the business media.

The future belongs to hedge funds — [LINK]

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 13:55:46 +0000

Man vs. Machine on Wall Street: How Computers Beat the Market.

Arab Revolt Prediction Markets – {Predictions for next Arab country to revolt} – {Which country is the next ‘domino’?} – {What will happen in the Middle East & Northern Africa?} – [PREDICTION MARKET CHARTS]

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 21:04:05 +0000

Predictions for next Arab country to revolt:

Libya — Muammar al-Gaddafi – [5 spellings: Gaddafi, Qaddafi, Gadhafi, Khadafy and Khadafi]:

Bahrain — Khalifah ibn Sulman al-Khalifah:

Yemen — Ali Abdullah Saleh:

Iran — Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

Iran — Seyed Ali Hoseyni Kh?mene’i:

GEO TAGS: Middle East – Northern Africa.

Previously: The liberation of the Arab countries will ultimately lead to a war with Israel. — [PREDICTION]

Next: Justin Wolfers didn’t inform the Freakonomics readers about InTrade’s mistake related to the contract statements of the ‘dictator departure markets’.

Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 21:37:41 +0000

Paul Hewitt:

- How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions?
- How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’?
- Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different prediction markets?
- How do we know which market is accurate?
- Is it a matter of prediction market efficiency?

The real benefit, in my opinion, is that prediction markets provide a better measurement of uncertainty around the outcome than do traditional forecasting methods.

“The REAL lesson most investors should take away from the largest institutional insider-trading investigation in history is that competition in the global financial markets is so intense that it’s basically idiotic to trade.”

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 15:33:30 +0000

“the folks they are competing with have millions and millions of dollars to spend gathering information that will never be published anywhere or appear on a screen or in a chart or graph.”

Max Keiser: Cantor Exchange and Media Derivatives Exchange would be an “insiders/traders’s paradise”.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 20:45:07 +0000

Max Keiser – 12:00 into (17,000 views already):

I disagree with Max that a prediction market quote can change perceptions that much.

Algorithms that execute thousands of trades per second

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:15:48 +0000

Automated transactions executed at lightning speed

Tobin Tax = a tax on financial transactions

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 09:06:50 +0000

Sounds like Jason Ruspini shouldn’t lose sleep over it —it won’t happen:

Previously:

- Paul Krugman Tries to Foist Specious Argument in Tobin Tax Debate.

- Jason Ruspini is against the Tobin Tax.