Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Tony Soprano

Libertarian reflections on the Sopranos and prediction markets

Written by Caveat Bettor on June 11, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The final episode really brought home to me how the coercive power of the government is not that far off from the power of the Mafia. Before I get into that, I found it interesting that the HBO franchise saw fit to portray “made” guys as part of the war against terror (in my limited [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Politics | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It.

Written by Michael Giberson on June 9, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Prediction markets work well in some cases and less well in others. The Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh article appearing in The Melborne Review states the pertinent point: “attempts to set up markets on topics where there are insiders with substantial information advantages have typically failed” because the presence of highly informed insiders will [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Tony Soprano, poster child for fast burn gamblers

Written by Caveat Bettor on April 30, 2007 — 1 Comment

Last night’s new episode was called “Chasing It”, and displayed Tony’s seemingly out-of-control gambling penchant, which coincided with stress with his spouse, his financer, and ultimately in someone’s death (don’t want to spoil it).
I can’t find an early post of mine, which advised folks here not to risk more than 4% of their allocated assets [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Gambling | Also tagged ,

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