Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Tim Harford

Tim Harford is a paperback writer.

US edition (paperback):

Tim Harford, The Logic Of Life
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UK edition (paperback):

Tim Harford, The Logic Of Life
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Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06
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VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech
Blip.TV — (FLV file)
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I’ll first publish some excerpts from the paper on Google’s enterprise prediction markets (set up [...]

Tim Harford on office micro-geography (and Google’s enterprise prediction markets)

Tim Harford:
[...] We keep being told that because of cheap, ubiquitous communication technology, distance is dead. But if there was ever a company that we should expect to exemplify that idea, surely it was Google. This research suggests that it is as important as ever to be sitting in the right place.
Yes, but findings on [...]

The Logic Of Life — by Tim Harford

YouTube video

It’s too short!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far

We have witnessed a backlash against the prediction markets just after the Hew Hampshire fiasco. Some bloggers and journalists picked on the prediction markets (InTrade, that is), even though both the polls and the pundits were awfully wrong too. [*] Here are the persons who participated in the pro-PM side of the debate:- Robin Hanson [...]

The Undercover Economist

The Undercover Economist = Tim Harford’s blog — [ Tim Harford's LinkedIn profile ]
His blog feed (a.k.a. RSS): http://blogs.ft.com/undercover/rss.xml
I recommend Google Reader, as your feed reader.

Money-on-the-line forecasts tend to do better than cheap-talk forecasts, even if the cheap-talk is from an independent analyst.

Said Tim Harford, talking about real estate derivatives. Felix Salmon disagrees.

Tim Harford’s audio piece, REPUGNANT MARKETS, is very good.

Tim Harford’s Repugnant Markets — Audio link at the top right corner of the page: BBC AUDIO FILE -
- Very interesting;
- The quality of the sound is great —even the interviewees.
Previous: Terrorism Futures = Repugnant Market? – by Michael Giberson + plenty of bombastic comments from Max Keiser

Terrorism Futures = Repugnant Market?

In discussing “Repugnant Markets” on BBC Radio, Tim Harford talks to Robin Hanson about the cancellation of the proposed Policy Analysis Market:
HANSON: So on Monday morning two senators you know denounced the project and the very next morning the Secretary of Defense announced the project was canceled. There [...]

THE 2007-07-07 LUCKY DAY: Washington Post’s Slate.com links to Eric Zitzewitz’s piece on Midas Oracle.

Tim Harford:
The economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz have pointed out that Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president, as predicted by one betting market, InTrade, started to climb dramatically mid-May, topping 40 per cent after months of fluctuating between 20 and 30 per cent. Her odds of winning the Democratic nomination stayed around 50 per [...]

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