Tag Archives: Thomas M. Hoenig

BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.

BetFair predicted: -0,25 The Fed decided: -0.50 That’s for the absolute accuracy. Now, what counts is the relative accuracy —the comparison between the prediction made by BetFair and the predictions made by the financial markets experts. I see that the … Continue reading

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BetFair predicts: US Federal Funds Rate = 5%

What will be the change in US Federal Funds Rate at this month’s scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting? FOMC – September FOMC Current Rate 5.25% . – 0.25 UPDATE: BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments