Midas Oracle .ORG » Thomas Jones http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 22:24:30 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Super Bowl Analysis Highlights http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/09/superbowl-analysis-highlights/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/09/superbowl-analysis-highlights/#comments Sat, 10 Feb 2007 01:00:18 +0000 Keith Jacks Gamble http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/09/superbowl-analysis-highlights/ Continue reading →]]>
  • The Colts entered the game with a 68% chance of winning.
  • The Bears winning the coin toss made them 0.5% more likely to win.
  • Devin Hester’s kick return for a touchdown made the Bears 10.25% more likely to win.
  • Thomas Jones’ 52 yard run to the Colts’ 5 yard line had the biggest impact of any offensive play. (10.75%)
  • When the Bears took an 8 point lead, the market still viewed the Colts as the favorite to win.
  • Kelvin Hayden’s interception was the biggest impact play of the game. It increased the Colts chances of winning by 18% to 94.5%.
  • The market was fully convinced of a Colts victory with 5:00 left in the game.
  • MVP Peyton Manning ranks only 6th on the list of top impact players of the game for the Colts.
  • Rex Grossman’s poor play contributed 36.5% to the Colts’ chance of winning, more than twice as much as the top performing Colt.

    • Probability of a Colts Win

    Full Analysis

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